MN Star Tribune/MPR/KARE poll: Biden +5

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I could see a scenario where Trump loses MI but wins MN, due to MIMAL becoming more republican.

[OneJ]

I guess it's not wildly unbelievable for this state to only be about 5 points or so in Biden's favor but I'm somewhat skeptical since current polling data, both national and statewide (particularly states like MI and PA), don't really indicate MN would be this close at the moment.

[wbrocks67]

+5 isn't horrible, but this result doesn't really square up with basically everything else we've seen.

Meanwhile, I don't expect MN to perform like the country as a whole, but this has Biden losing 65+ by double digits while most national polls have had him doing pretty damn well with that group.

Also, I'd be surprised if Biden is losing Indies here.

This also has Trump's approval at 45/53, which is essentially what it was in 2018 exit polls (46/53), and that had all Dems winning by double digits.

[BudgieForce]

Just thinking out loud here but if Biden is winning Wisconsin by 3 points(going by Marquette), a 5 point margin in Minnesota seems perfectly logical.

[Minnesota Mike]

People forget Clinton got a lower percentage of the vote in Minnesota than in Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. Biden being up at 49% of the vote (with 7% undecided) and up 5% is perfectly compatible with a relatively easy Biden national win.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let's have some perspective here and remember that Clinton barely won here, and the state tends to be more Republican during presidential years. Biden being up five points here really isn't that bad. I'm certain that the Democrats' floor with the Twin Cities and their suburbs will hold up. It's a bit like Nevada in that respect. Minnesota's Democratic voting streak isn't ending yet, though it may very well go back to voting to Michigan's right, I wouldn't be surprised if that happens this year.

Of course, if I were Collin Peterson, perhaps I'd be a tad worried.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

[SevenEleven]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again. 

This never happened.

[Minnesota Mike]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.

This never happened.

It did in 2016. Clinton won Nationwide by 2.09%. She won Minnesota by 1.52%.

[SevenEleven]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.

This never happened.

It did in 2016. Clinton won Nationwide by 2.09%. She won Minnesota by 1.52%.

Donald Trump received a smaller percentage of the vote in Minnesota than he did nationwide, how is that voting to the right of the nation? Minnesota was less Republican than the US as a whole.

[Minnesota Mike]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.

This never happened.

It did in 2016. Clinton won Nationwide by 2.09%. She won Minnesota by 1.52%.

Donald Trump received a smaller percentage of the vote in Minnesota than he did nationwide, how is that voting to the right of the nation? Minnesota was less Republican than the US as a whole.

Hair splitting either way but voting to the right of the nation as a whole does not necessarily mean voting more Republican than the country as a whole. Minnesota had a large 3rd party vote in 2016, including to right leaning 3rd parties.  By your definition Utah voted left of the nation as a whole too.

[SevenEleven]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.

This never happened.

It did in 2016. Clinton won Nationwide by 2.09%. She won Minnesota by 1.52%.

Donald Trump received a smaller percentage of the vote in Minnesota than he did nationwide, how is that voting to the right of the nation? Minnesota was less Republican than the US as a whole.

Hair splitting either way but voting to the right of the nation as a whole does not necessarily mean voting more Republican than the country as a whole. Minnesota had a large 3rd party vote in 2016, including to right leaning 3rd parties.  By your definition Utah voted left of the nation as a whole too.

Minnesota has a high 3rd party vote fairly often. It also has a pretty hard ceiling for Republican presidential candidates.

Hillary Clinton got less than 30% in Utah. How is that "left" of the nation?

PVI is a useless metric.

[Minnesota Mike]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.

This never happened.

It did in 2016. Clinton won Nationwide by 2.09%. She won Minnesota by 1.52%.

Donald Trump received a smaller percentage of the vote in Minnesota than he did nationwide, how is that voting to the right of the nation? Minnesota was less Republican than the US as a whole.

Hair splitting either way but voting to the right of the nation as a whole does not necessarily mean voting more Republican than the country as a whole. Minnesota had a large 3rd party vote in 2016, including to right leaning 3rd parties.  By your definition Utah voted left of the nation as a whole too.

Minnesota has a high 3rd party vote fairly often. It also has a pretty hard ceiling for Republican presidential candidates.

Hillary Clinton got less than 30% in Utah. How is that "left" of the nation?

PVI is a useless metric.

Make up your mind. You say Minnesota did not vote to the right of the nation because Trump received a smaller percentage of the total vote in MN than he did nationwide. Same is true in Utah.

To be clear I think 2 party vote is the best metric for determining how right/left a state voted. Minnesota voted slightly to the right of the nation as a whole. Utah voted very far to the right.

[Annatar]

This poll is consistent with the WI polling, MN has generally voted within a few points of of WI this century, in 2016 MN D+1.5 and WI was R+0.8, a 2.3% difference, since Biden is up 3% in the Marquette poll in WI, you would expect him to lead by 5% in MN.

The educational attainment is off a bit though, as of 2018 according to the ACS, MN had 34% of adults over 18 possessing a Bachelor degree or higher, now college educated voters are more likely to register so their share among RV's would be around 37- 38% but this poll has their share at 47%. It's unfortunate how many polls overstate the share of RV's that are college educated but this poll is not as bad as many others.

[LiberalDem19]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.

This never happened.

It did in 2016. Clinton won Nationwide by 2.09%. She won Minnesota by 1.52%.

Donald Trump received a smaller percentage of the vote in Minnesota than he did nationwide, how is that voting to the right of the nation? Minnesota was less Republican than the US as a whole.

Hair splitting either way but voting to the right of the nation as a whole does not necessarily mean voting more Republican than the country as a whole. Minnesota had a large 3rd party vote in 2016, including to right leaning 3rd parties.  By your definition Utah voted left of the nation as a whole too.

Minnesota has a high 3rd party vote fairly often. It also has a pretty hard ceiling for Republican presidential candidates.

Hillary Clinton got less than 30% in Utah. How is that "left" of the nation?

PVI is a useless metric.

Make up your mind. You say Minnesota did not vote to the right of the nation because Trump received a smaller percentage of the total vote in MN than he did nationwide. Same is true in Utah.

To be clear I think 2 party vote is the best metric for determining how right/left a state voted. Minnesota voted slightly to the right of the nation as a whole. Utah voted very far to the right.

Then MN voted to the left of the country in 2018 by about 4-5% when there were a bunch of races without a Republican in them

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Eh, hasn't Mason Dixon been pretty friendly to Trump this cycle?

[ElectionsGuy]

This poll is actually realistic. It shows Donald Trump's approval at the same 45-53 split it is nationally, lining up with how it voted relative to the national vote in 2016. It also makes sense in comparison to the Wisconsin Marquette poll of Biden +3. Too many people have this biased view that Minnesota will go Democrat by 10 while Wisconsin will be a super-duper tossup. The reality is that these states have more in common with each other than any other state around them.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It wouldn't surprise me if Minnesota votes slightly to the right of the nation again.  In fact, if Trump is able to rebound and win reelection, I think it would be with Minnesota (albeit not the tipping point).

Yeah, Trump can win WITH Minnesota, but it likely won't be BECAUSE of Minnesota. 

[DaleCooper]

Let's have some perspective here and remember that Clinton barely won here, and the state tends to be more Republican during presidential years. Biden being up five points here really isn't that bad. I'm certain that the Democrats' floor with the Twin Cities and their suburbs will hold up. It's a bit like Nevada in that respect. Minnesota's Democratic voting streak isn't ending yet, though it may very well go back to voting to Michigan's right, I wouldn't be surprised if that happens this year.

Of course, if I were Collin Peterson, perhaps I'd be a tad worried.

I agree with your assessment of the presidential election, but Peterson has won relatively comfortably in so many unfriendly election cycles that I won't bring myself to be worried for him until he finally does lose. I will say, though, that I don't think he'd make it through a Biden midterm.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Let's have some perspective here and remember that Clinton barely won here, and the state tends to be more Republican during presidential years. Biden being up five points here really isn't that bad. I'm certain that the Democrats' floor with the Twin Cities and their suburbs will hold up. It's a bit like Nevada in that respect. Minnesota's Democratic voting streak isn't ending yet, though it may very well go back to voting to Michigan's right, I wouldn't be surprised if that happens this year.

Of course, if I were Collin Peterson, perhaps I'd be a tad worried.

I agree with your assessment of the presidential election, but Peterson has won relatively comfortably in so many unfriendly election cycles that I won't bring myself to be worried for him until he finally does lose. I will say, though, that I don't think he'd make it through a Biden midterm.

Peterson's seat won't exist in a Biden midterm.

[DaleCooper]

Let's have some perspective here and remember that Clinton barely won here, and the state tends to be more Republican during presidential years. Biden being up five points here really isn't that bad. I'm certain that the Democrats' floor with the Twin Cities and their suburbs will hold up. It's a bit like Nevada in that respect. Minnesota's Democratic voting streak isn't ending yet, though it may very well go back to voting to Michigan's right, I wouldn't be surprised if that happens this year.

Of course, if I were Collin Peterson, perhaps I'd be a tad worried.

I agree with your assessment of the presidential election, but Peterson has won relatively comfortably in so many unfriendly election cycles that I won't bring myself to be worried for him until he finally does lose. I will say, though, that I don't think he'd make it through a Biden midterm.

Peterson's seat won't exist in a Biden midterm.

That's true, I forgot about that. That's a perfect excuse for him to retire.

[Adam Griffin]

Not surprising at all. Anybody who understands trends knows that this is a state that sooner or later will pose problems for Democrats; literally the only reason Clinton won it was because of the DFL's inherent strength organizationally and the fact that right-wing third-party vote share was substantially higher there than nationally. Right now, the suburbs are offsetting rural losses enough to prevent an absolute loss: the question is which geographic grouping will reach its ceiling first? I think rural MN has a lot more room for D loss than suburban MN has for D gain, but the suburbs are growing while rural areas are shrinking, so it's anyone's guess. If we continue on the path we're currently on trend-wise, though, losing MN is a reality that'll happen sooner or later.

[SN2903]

Good poll for Trump.  MN could def be the Wisconsin of 2020

[LAKISYLVANIA]

A Minnesota Poll last October that matched Trump against four Democratic presidential contenders, including Biden, found the former vice president with a significantly larger lead over Trump than he has now.
But Biden’s level of support remains nearly unchanged from October: It’s Trump who gained ground in the new poll, especially with men, Minnesotans who live outside the Twin Cities, and voters over 65.

This is trend-breaking. It looks like if Trump did target MN properly in 2016, he would have won it. I agree that MN might be the WI of 2016. If i was Trump, i would heavily target it, and it would be one of my top states to visit & campaign in, in addition to FL, NC, AZ, MI, PA, GA, ME and WI.

[Tender Branson]

But, but Microsoft/MSN has Biden ahead of Trump by 60-32 in MN as of yesterday !

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls