TX-Quinnipiac: Trump +1

[SN2903]

Junk it. Quinnipiac is not reliable after 2018
Trump will win by 5-7. 13% undecided? LOL

Is every poll skewed 4-5 points Dem in your opinion lol .


If Trump wants to be reelected , maybe he should act like a leader for once who cares about governing especially in a time of crises and if he had done that from like the beginning of this year then this election would have been almost a lock for him but instead he is still acting like this is 2016

There is a history of Trump being undercounted. It's not out of thin air.

The national polls undershot Trump's margin by... 1 point, not 4 or 5 or 6.

I'm pretty sure Texas polls have undershot Democrats by a lot more than that in both 2016 and 2018 (3 or 4 points both times).

Elections are decided in the states NOT nationally and the polls in Mi, WI, PA, FL were all wrong.

...and they were off by similar margins in Texas? What is so complicated.

Midwest is continuing to move R while TX, GA , AZ move away from Repubs everyone knows this which is why it is foolish to equate TX or AZ to the Midwest. Both movements are going on.

[Bidenworth2020]

Junk it. Quinnipiac is not reliable after 2018
Trump will win by 5-7. 13% undecided? LOL

Is every poll skewed 4-5 points Dem in your opinion lol .


If Trump wants to be reelected , maybe he should act like a leader for once who cares about governing especially in a time of crises and if he had done that from like the beginning of this year then this election would have been almost a lock for him but instead he is still acting like this is 2016

There is a history of Trump being undercounted. It's not out of thin air.

The national polls undershot Trump's margin by... 1 point, not 4 or 5 or 6.

I'm pretty sure Texas polls have undershot Democrats by a lot more than that in both 2016 and 2018 (3 or 4 points both times).

Elections are decided in the states NOT nationally and the polls in Mi, WI, PA, FL were all wrong.

...and they were off by similar margins in Texas? What is so complicated.

Midwest is continuing to move R while TX, GA , AZ move away from Repubs everyone knows this which is why it is foolish to equate TX or AZ to the Midwest. Both movements are going on.

Umm... Yes? That's literally the point you were attempting to refute above.

[Beet]

In 2018 Quinnipiac was 51% Cruz 46% Beto. An earlier April poll with more undecideds had it 47%-44% Cruz. If anything, many polls throughout 2018 had a bigger Cruz lead. Quinnipiac has a good track record.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Junk it. Quinnipiac is not reliable after 2018
Trump will win by 5-7. 13% undecided? LOL

Is every poll skewed 4-5 points Dem in your opinion lol .


If Trump wants to be reelected , maybe he should act like a leader for once who cares about governing especially in a time of crises and if he had done that from like the beginning of this year then this election would have been almost a lock for him but instead he is still acting like this is 2016

There is a history of Trump being undercounted. It's not out of thin air.

The national polls undershot Trump's margin by... 1 point, not 4 or 5 or 6.

I'm pretty sure Texas polls have undershot Democrats by a lot more than that in both 2016 and 2018 (3 or 4 points both times).

Elections are decided in the states NOT nationally and the polls in Mi, WI, PA, FL were all wrong.

...and they were off by similar margins in Texas? What is so complicated.

Midwest is continuing to move R while TX, GA , AZ move away from Repubs everyone knows this which is why it is foolish to equate TX or AZ to the Midwest. Both movements are going on.

And yet you're still unskewing the polls for all of them in the same direction. Funny, that.

[CellarDoor]

This poll is certainly plausible if the Fox News polls are as well.  The high-quality polls seem to be pointing in the same direction at the moment.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Either this or the Harper North Carolina poll from today is wrong. I don't see how Texas is closer than North Carolina.

[KaiserDave]

Junk it. Quinnipiac is not reliable after 2018
Trump will win by 5-7. 13% undecided? LOL

Doesn't fit my priors blablabla

[Landslide Lyndon]

An important caveat. The largest blocs of undecideds are voters under 35 independents, women, and minorities.

[WD]

I think Texas will be within 3 points either way, but if Trump looses here Biden is probably getting 330+EVs

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Texas President by Quinnipiac University on 2020-06-01

Summary: D: 43%, R: 44%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ProudModerate2]

It's gonna be close, but democrats probably need another cycle to flip it.

It’s only close this year because of Trump.
In 2024, TX will be at least R+5 again.

I'm kind-of in this camp of thought.
But there is a small chance Biden can win it in 2020 (since trump is a disaster and Failure).
But in the near future, with a "more reasonable" Rep as the candidate, Texas will be Lean/Likely R (not to say that in 12 or 16 years, it may be a consistent toss-up-ish state).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Clearly this means Texas is solid R and Biden shouldn't waste any time spending money, fighting for legislative seats or solidifying a statewide frastructure that'd pay dividends down the road

[Sir Mohamed]

I was skeptical of Quinnipiac, too, since they got FL 2018 wrong. BUT, just because one state turned out differently doesn't mean all of their polls are garbage. In TX, they slightly underestimated Beto. We also shouldn't assume pollsters don't learn from their errors.

Polls in TX have been relatively close this cycle across the board. You can discount a single one as outlier or for bad polling methodology, but it's getting increasingly hard to ignore this pattern here. TX is definitely more competitive than the GOP would like to see. I'm not convinced the Lone Star state will flip this November, but will be decided by the closest margin since at least 1976.

[Alben Barkley]

I think Texas will be within 3 points either way, but if Trump looses here Biden is probably getting 330+EVs

If Trump loses here, he may get over 400.

Give or take an Iowa or ME-02, but Biden would still surpass 400 without them. He would have to win both Texas and Ohio, however. Neither is impossible based on the latest polling in those states.

[Pollster]

Quinnipiac's final poll of Texas in 2018 was 51/46 Cruz, so not sure why people are saying they underestimated Beto considering they got the race damn near exactly right and clearly well within the margin of error.

Trump has bumbled his way into making Texas a toss-up. Incredible that the GOP didn't pull the trigger on this guy when they had a golden opportunity to. Imagine where the party would be right now if President Pence handled covid-19 in a competent manner.

I dunno.  If Trump had just randomly passed away or something, I agree that Pence would be in much better shape for November than Trump currently is now.  But if the Republican party had thrown him under the bus, I think a huge number of Republicans would be extremely pissed off and demoralized and would just stay home. Look at what happened to Republican turnout in the 74 midterms after Watergate.

Very possibly. Another possibility is that the covid-19 outbreak quickly runs everything out of the news cycle and practically eliminates the impeachment from public memory, as in our timeline. Assuming Pence performs anywhere similarly to the governors, Fox News would endlessly shill him and the wounds with the base would mend. He'd be, at least, slightly favored for (re)election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Quinnipiac's final poll of Texas in 2018 was 51/46 Cruz, so not sure why people are saying they underestimated Beto considering they got the race damn near exactly right and clearly well within the margin of error.

Trump has bumbled his way into making Texas a toss-up. Incredible that the GOP didn't pull the trigger on this guy when they had a golden opportunity to. Imagine where the party would be right now if President Pence handled covid-19 in a competent manner.

I dunno.  If Trump had just randomly passed away or something, I agree that Pence would be in much better shape for November than Trump currently is now.  But if the Republican party had thrown him under the bus, I think a huge number of Republicans would be extremely pissed off and demoralized and would just stay home. Look at what happened to Republican turnout in the 74 midterms after Watergate.

Very possibly. Another possibility is that the covid-19 outbreak quickly runs everything out of the news cycle and practically eliminates the impeachment from public memory, as in our timeline. Assuming Pence performs anywhere similarly to the governors, Fox News would endlessly shill him and the wounds with the base would mend. He'd be, at least, slightly favored for (re)election.

Pence acing the coronavirus response is a pretty big assumption. The guy was an abject failure as governor and was on a smooth path to defeat until the moment Trump picked his as VP.

[MT Treasurer]

Trump and Unbeatable Titan John Cornyn are somehow less popular than the incredibly unpopular Ted Cruz with his +3 approval rating, aka the only reason a Democrat came within three percentage points of winning a Senate race in TX.

[Calthrina950]

Trump and Unbeatable Titan John Cornyn are somehow less popular than the incredibly unpopular Ted Cruz with his +3 approval rating, aka the only reason a Democrat came within three percentage points of winning a Senate race in TX.

I'm not surprised about Trump, but in a way, I am about Cornyn. Cornyn has been a relative backbencher during his nearly twenty years in the Senate, and has been less controversial than Cruz. But I guess that Cruz's greater national visibility is of a net benefit with him to the base. And Abbott is significantly more popular than Trump, Cornyn, and Cruz.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Hegar candidacy clearly backfired

[The Mikado]

Trump and Unbeatable Titan John Cornyn are somehow less popular than the incredibly unpopular Ted Cruz with his +3 approval rating, aka the only reason a Democrat came within three percentage points of winning a Senate race in TX.

I'm not surprised about Trump, but in a way, I am about Cornyn. Cornyn has been a relative backbencher during his nearly twenty years in the Senate, and has been less controversial than Cruz. But I guess that Cruz's greater national visibility is of a net benefit with him to the base. And Abbott is significantly more popular than Trump, Cornyn, and Cruz.

John Cornyn spent six years as GOP Whip, the #2 Republican in the Senate. He was just a nonentity at it, and now that that job has passed to Thune, Cornyn has de facto had a huge demotion.