How did Mark Warner win Amherst county in 2001?

[Left Wing]

I was looking at some Virginia county results and somehow a county that almost always votes Republican 65-35, randomly went for Warner in 2001.

[DINGO Joe]

Once upon a time, counties were more elastic in their vote and in 2001 Warner ran a campaign on the idea that while Virginia was growing rapidly, the Rs had ignore the rural Southside and SW VA and had been left out.  Of course, they're still left behind no matter who gets elected. 

[Oryxslayer]

Also, there once was a time where political coalitions in VA were different. Almost everywhere there was high growth there were republicans, since they had the wealth and professionalism the easily utilize freedom of movement. By 2001 this coalition was on the out nationally, but coalitions last longer at the statewide level. This was a grouping that left the GOP normally in control of the suburbs surrounding every major city. The Dems meanwhile made do with their old dixiecratic ties, the cities, WWC in Appalachia, and those areas with new, minority suburbs like Henrico or Fairfax. VA's three governor elections between 2001 and 2010 represent the transition from the old coalition into one more recognizable.

[Roll Roons]

Also, there once was a time where political coalitions in VA were different. Almost everywhere there was high growth there were republicans, since they had the wealth and professionalism the easily utilize freedom of movement. By 2001 this coalition was on the out nationally, but coalitions last longer at the statewide level. This was a grouping that left the GOP normally in control of the suburbs surrounding every major city. The Dems meanwhile made do with their old dixiecratic ties, the cities, WWC in Appalachia, and those areas with new, minority suburbs like Henrico or Fairfax. VA's three governor elections between 2001 and 2010 represent the transition from the old coalition into one more recognizable.

Yeah - the 1996 Senate map, when Mark Warner challenged John Warner, shows it best. John won Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William, while Mark won a lot of Appalachian counties.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia#/media/File:Virginia_Senate_Election_Results_by_County,_1996.svg

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Peeps: Amherst isn't part of Appalachia, it's Piedmont. It's between Charlottesville and Lynchburg. Blue Ridge Piedmont is distinct from Appalachia in a number of ways.

Ds have some historic strength here. You're talking about a mix of blacks and a lot of poor upland south whites. Its NE neighbor Nelson was a Demosaur holdover that was won by Clinton x2, Kerry, Obama x2, then Trump and you can also find historic D strength further up in adjacent hill country in areas like Bath (where Creigh Deeds is from).

edit: here's a Miles map that shows what the dynamics of this area are like. Amherst would fit in the gap next to the "y" in "locality". You can see Clinton and Warner had success in this area so winning Amherst isn't really unprecedented or anomalous. Worth noting that none of this area is Appalachian - it's "Southside" Virginia which is low, rolling hills spotted with less-productive farmland than what you would find in Tidewater areas around Richmond or Cheseapeake.

[SevenEleven]

Also, there once was a time where political coalitions in VA were different. Almost everywhere there was high growth there were republicans, since they had the wealth and professionalism the easily utilize freedom of movement. By 2001 this coalition was on the out nationally, but coalitions last longer at the statewide level. This was a grouping that left the GOP normally in control of the suburbs surrounding every major city. The Dems meanwhile made do with their old dixiecratic ties, the cities, WWC in Appalachia, and those areas with new, minority suburbs like Henrico or Fairfax. VA's three governor elections between 2001 and 2010 represent the transition from the old coalition into one more recognizable.

Yeah - the 1996 Senate map, when Mark Warner challenged John Warner, shows it best. John won Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William, while Mark won a lot of Appalachian counties.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia#/media/File:Virginia_Senate_Election_Results_by_County,_1996.svg

This was right after the AWB, too.

[Left Wing]

Peeps: Amherst isn't part of Appalachia, it's Piedmont. It's between Charlottesville and Lynchburg. Blue Ridge Piedmont is distinct from Appalachia in a number of ways.

Ds have some historic strength here. You're talking about a mix of blacks and a lot of poor upland south whites. Its NE neighbor Nelson was a Demosaur holdover that was won by Clinton x2, Kerry, Obama x2, then Trump and you can also find historic D strength further up in adjacent hill country in areas like Bath (where Creigh Deeds is from).

edit: here's a Miles map that shows what the dynamics of this area are like. Amherst would fit in the gap next to the "y" in "locality". You can see Clinton and Warner had success in this area so winning Amherst isn't really unprecedented or anomalous. Worth noting that none of this area is Appalachian - it's "Southside" Virginia which is low, rolling hills spotted with less-productive farmland than what you would find in Tidewater areas around Richmond or Cheseapeake.

I would it is notable that Warner won a county that just went for Bush by 15 points and in 2004 went for Bush by 23 points. It is interesting that Warner almost won this county in 1996 and then won it in 2001 and 2008. I guess he has some sort of appeal there. When you look at Amherst's 2008 presidential vote and it's senate vote, the percentages are reversed. It is also notable that Clinton lost this county by two when he lost it by thirteen in 1992.

[Suburbia]

Also, there once was a time where political coalitions in VA were different. Almost everywhere there was high growth there were republicans, since they had the wealth and professionalism the easily utilize freedom of movement. By 2001 this coalition was on the out nationally, but coalitions last longer at the statewide level. This was a grouping that left the GOP normally in control of the suburbs surrounding every major city. The Dems meanwhile made do with their old dixiecratic ties, the cities, WWC in Appalachia, and those areas with new, minority suburbs like Henrico or Fairfax. VA's three governor elections between 2001 and 2010 represent the transition from the old coalition into one more recognizable.

Can Warner and Mudcat Sanders teach Democrats to compete in SW VA?

[jamestroll]

Also, there once was a time where political coalitions in VA were different. Almost everywhere there was high growth there were republicans, since they had the wealth and professionalism the easily utilize freedom of movement. By 2001 this coalition was on the out nationally, but coalitions last longer at the statewide level. This was a grouping that left the GOP normally in control of the suburbs surrounding every major city. The Dems meanwhile made do with their old dixiecratic ties, the cities, WWC in Appalachia, and those areas with new, minority suburbs like Henrico or Fairfax. VA's three governor elections between 2001 and 2010 represent the transition from the old coalition into one more recognizable.

Can Warner and Mudcat Sanders teach Democrats to compete in SW VA?

No. We will not win any white rural districts. We can reduce margins at times but outright victories in white rural districts will not happen.

We may be able to get victories in more suburban areas that lean GOP like Chesterfield County or Stafford  County.

[Orwell]

Also, there once was a time where political coalitions in VA were different. Almost everywhere there was high growth there were republicans, since they had the wealth and professionalism the easily utilize freedom of movement. By 2001 this coalition was on the out nationally, but coalitions last longer at the statewide level. This was a grouping that left the GOP normally in control of the suburbs surrounding every major city. The Dems meanwhile made do with their old dixiecratic ties, the cities, WWC in Appalachia, and those areas with new, minority suburbs like Henrico or Fairfax. VA's three governor elections between 2001 and 2010 represent the transition from the old coalition into one more recognizable.

Can Warner and Mudcat Sanders teach Democrats to compete in SW VA?

No. We will not win any white rural districts. We can reduce margins at times but outright victories in white rural districts will not happen.

We may be able to get victories in more suburban areas that lean GOP like Chesterfield County or Stafford  County.

Idk with a name like Mudcat I think he could get anyone to compete in SW VA

[Suburbia]

Also, there once was a time where political coalitions in VA were different. Almost everywhere there was high growth there were republicans, since they had the wealth and professionalism the easily utilize freedom of movement. By 2001 this coalition was on the out nationally, but coalitions last longer at the statewide level. This was a grouping that left the GOP normally in control of the suburbs surrounding every major city. The Dems meanwhile made do with their old dixiecratic ties, the cities, WWC in Appalachia, and those areas with new, minority suburbs like Henrico or Fairfax. VA's three governor elections between 2001 and 2010 represent the transition from the old coalition into one more recognizable.

Can Warner and Mudcat Sanders teach Democrats to compete in SW VA?

No. We will not win any white rural districts. We can reduce margins at times but outright victories in white rural districts will not happen.

We may be able to get victories in more suburban areas that lean GOP like Chesterfield County or Stafford  County.

I like Mudcat. He didn't even vote for Hillary in 2016. Biden should hire him.