Let's talk about Texas in 2020

[Roll Roons]

I think Beto hit the ceiling for at least one or two cycles. Cruz was hated in a way that Trump isn't in TX. I think it'll be within 2-3 points.

This seems right.  Beto/Cruz seems like the best case scenario for Democrats right now.  The Dems had a charismatic candidate and Ted Cruz is basically the worst human being alive.  So I don't see how Biden outperforms Beto even with some additional minority turnout.

I've met Cruz several times, and he's awkward, but actually quite nice and not that arrogant when you talk to him. Overall, he seems like a much better person than Trump.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think the margin could be close, maybe something like a 3-4 Trump victory, but because the state is so large, and there are many groups pulling against eachother, the state is very inelasti and therefore, the national environment will be what matters most. Same is also sort of true for FL. I think TX will either suprise us with how much it goes to Trump or how little it goes to Trump by, and it won't be the margin people expect. Trump is not a good fit for the state, as Texas is more Reagan-Bush conservative.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Beto hit the ceiling for at least one or two cycles. Cruz was hated in a way that Trump isn't in TX. I think it'll be within 2-3 points.

This seems right.  Beto/Cruz seems like the best case scenario for Democrats right now.  The Dems had a charismatic candidate and Ted Cruz is basically the worst human being alive.  So I don't see how Biden outperforms Beto even with some additional minority turnout.

I've met Cruz several times, and he's awkward, but actually quite nice and not that arrogant when you talk to him. Overall, he seems like a much better person than Trump.

Texas is such a large state though, so he only is able to interact with a very very small portion of the electorate in person, unlike in a smaller state, the canidate is more local and has more of a personal connection with the community. I'm from NY, and even though I generally like my senators, I don't really feel I have a connection to them, and they seem more mainstream, but when I visited a freind in MT during the 2018 cycle and saw a few Tester ads, I felt that he had a mucher stronger connection to the community of MT.

[here2view]

I have Trump winning Texas by 5.

[jake_arlington]

There is no doubt TX will trend D again in 2020, but I think the trend will slow down a bit from 2016. In 2012 TX went from R+20 to R+11 in 2016. I would guess that TX will trend around 3-4 points D in 2020, bringing it to R+7-8. In a Biden landslide, it could flip.

I believe the end result was +9 for Trump.

I predict a 5 point win for Trump in 2020

I believe the user was discussing about its lean

[dw93]

I think Trump will do worse in Texas than he did in 2016 but I think he'll win it by a margin of 4-7%. Pre COVID, I actually thought Texas was one state Trump was actually going to improve his margins in, but thanks to the pandemic and thanks to it reeking havoc on the Oil Industry (at least early on in the crisis) I think he sees a reduced margin.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1265783630686646272

Well, RIP Texas chances I guess...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

There is no doubt TX will trend D again in 2020, but I think the trend will slow down a bit from 2016. In 2012 TX went from R+20 to R+11 in 2016. I would guess that TX will trend around 3-4 points D in 2020, bringing it to R+7-8. In a Biden landslide, it could flip.

I believe the end result was +9 for Trump.

I predict a 5 point win for Trump in 2020

I believe the user was discussing about its lean

Yea, Hillary won the NPV by 2 points, while losing TX by 9, making it R+11 in PVI.

[MARGINS6729]

Texas isn't in play IMO. Margins will be thinner but it's not going to flip this year. I'm predicting a 7 to 5 point Trump win.