Bold Predictions for November

[Ferguson97]

Donald Trump narrowly re-elected, but Democrats do great everywhere else.

Yeah it's not inconceivable that with enough split-ticket voting that Dems can take back the Senate (NC, ME, AZ, MT) but lose the presidency.

[Ferguson97]

Donald Trump narrowly re-elected, but Democrats do great everywhere else.

Yeah it's not inconceivable that with enough split-ticket voting that Dems can take back the Senate (NC, ME, AZ, MT) but lose the presidency.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Joe Biden will win Ohio.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here are my bold predictions:

- Trump improves on WWC voters
- Biden gets Obama level AA turn-out
- Biden falls to get Hispanic voters to turn out


Causing this map to happen:

 

I actually think younger A voters are turning away from the Democratic party a bit

[DabbingSanta]

Just to rock the boat, lol

[Ferguson97]

Just to rock the boat, lol

I'll laugh my ass off if Joe just ends up replicating Obama's 2012 map lmao.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Just to rock the boat, lol

I can accept the rest, but don't think IA voting to the left of AZ is plausible at this point.

[Vern]

Here are my bold predictions:

- Trump improves on WWC voters
- Biden gets Obama level AA turn-out
- Biden falls to get Hispanic voters to turn out


Causing this map to happen:

 

Biden getting Obama-level turnout with blacks should at least flip MI, if not PA.

Not if Trump improves on his WWC numbers.

[Non Swing Voter]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

This is in fact bold.  I'd be shocked if literally any of these came true except for the NV prediction.

[2016]

Donald Trump narrowly re-elected, but Democrats do great everywhere else.

Yeah it's not inconceivable that with enough split-ticket voting that Dems can take back the Senate (NC, ME, AZ, MT) but lose the presidency.

It will be the other way around I think. Biden wins the Presidency because Moderate Republicans won't come out and vote for Trump (Angry, Dissatisfied, etc,) but they vote for Republicans for Senate resulting in Democrats only picking up Arizona and Colorado. Republicans pick up Alabama. Republicans hold NC, MT, ME, two Seats in GA and KS, KY.

Senate 52-48 GOP.

[jake_arlington]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

The polls were correct within the margin of error (except for Wisconsin). The pundits and the media incorrectly interpreted the polls.

Uh no lmao

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

False.

False.

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

The polls were correct within the margin of error (except for Wisconsin). The pundits and the media incorrectly interpreted the polls.

[Ferguson97]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

The polls were correct within the margin of error (except for Wisconsin). The pundits and the media incorrectly interpreted the polls.

Uh no lmao

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

False.

False.

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

The polls were correct within the margin of error (except for Wisconsin). The pundits and the media incorrectly interpreted the polls.

Would you care to elaborate?

[Mexican Wolf]

Utah votes to the left of Wisconsin and Arizona, both of which go to Trump by 2 to 3%.

Connecticut votes to the right of Pennsylvania and Michigan, both of which go to Biden by 5%.

Biden wins the election by winning Florida with Obama's 2012 margin.

In actual bold predictions:

Trump wins Texas by less than 3%.

Collins retains her Senate seat by a vastly reduced margin, maybe less than 5%.

Biden wins Luzerne County by less than 1%.

Dems take the Senate with Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia's special election.

Al Gross comes within 2% of unseating Dan Sullivan.

[jake_arlington]

But anyway, yes:



And of course, the regional numbers (especially demographic crosstabs) when you look at the individual polls themselves were innumerable degrees of magnitude worse in times with.

Uh no lmao

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

False.

Would you care to elaborate?

First of all, would you?

[Ferguson97]

But anyway, yes:



And of course, the regional numbers (especially demographic crosstabs) when you look at the individual polls themselves were innumerable degrees of magnitude worse in times with.

Uh no lmao

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

False.

Would you care to elaborate?

First of all, would you?

Did you even look at what you just linked? Michigan and Pennsylvania are both within a margin of error.

[2016]

But anyway, yes:



And of course, the regional numbers (especially demographic crosstabs) when you look at the individual polls themselves were innumerable degrees of magnitude worse in times with.

Uh no lmao

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

False.

Would you care to elaborate?

First of all, would you?

For all intends and purposes this is quite striking how much Trump overperformed the Polls in 2016. Republicans did so as well in the Statewide Races in 2018.

Looking at all this it should give Democrats definitly some pause. It suggest that there is a sizeable Electorate out there who won't tell Pollsters that they will vote for Trump and then in secrecy, privacy they will vote for him.

If that happens again Trump could win again.

[jake_arlington]

But anyway, yes:



And of course, the regional numbers (especially demographic crosstabs) when you look at the individual polls themselves were innumerable degrees of magnitude worse in times with.

Uh no lmao

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

False.

Would you care to elaborate?

First of all, would you?

Did you even look at what you just linked? Michigan and Pennsylvania are both within a margin of error.

...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think conservatives are quick to think the Pandemic is over, Trump isn't corrupted due to his lawyers being freed from jail and 100K arent dead. They want to go back to thinking we are living in a 3.5 percent unemployment economy,  no Trump is still gonna lose, he hasnt expanded his base and only won by tiny margins

[Bomster]

-Trump wins Iowa by 15 points (53-38)
-Trump wins Ohio by 8 points (52-44)
-AZ votes to left of PA, but still votes R
-Biden loses PA by 3-5 points
-Biden struggles in NV and wins by 2-3 points
-Trump wins ME-02 by 20 points

No, every poll has Trump.losing by 5 to 10 even in Fox

That also was true in 2016. But Trump still won even when the polls said he was going to lose big time.

The polls got Hillary’s numbers right, it’s just that undecided voters broke hard for Trump after the Comey Letter.

[S019]

Going to mix in some down ballot races:

Democrats win at least one Georgia Senate seat
Susan Collins wins re-election
Texas is a closer state than New Hampshire (for both Senate and President)
Cory Gardner underperforms Trump in Colorado
Collin Peterson loses by less than David Valadao does
Biden wins Georgia, but loses Florida

[jake_arlington]

The polls got Hillary’s numbers right

A by the sheer luck of coincidence.
When you actually delve deeper into the heading beyond simply topline numbers, that becomes clear is it was a bunch of errors cancelling each other out to produce that favorable "result" of course, in the end.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It shouldn’t be bold considering the history of polling underestimating Republicans in the Midwest and underestimating Democrats in the south and west, but I think that’s going to happen again, and there won’t be a big difference in the final margin between states like Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan.

[Ferguson97]

South Carolina's senate race will be the closest race where the incumbent is re-elected.

[Ferguson97]

Biden: 309

Trump: 229

[MT Treasurer]

After all the concerns about a 2016 redux and "underestimating Trump"; four years of bedwetting, overanalysis, and "learning lessons"; and excessive focus on/obsession over the "WWC" Obama/Trump voter, Donald Trump's presidency is ended by the "silent" suburban voter who couldn’t stomach voting for Hillary Clinton and considered Trump the lesser of two evils in 2016, record Democratic turnout across the country (but especially in metropolitan America, where we see unprecedented numbers for a Democratic presidential candidate in cities like Atlanta, Austin, and Bozeman ), and Biden's inroads among voters 65 and older. Biden flips MI, PA, AZ, NE-02, and two other states. States with the strongest D swings include MT, KS, TX, and AZ (which votes to the left of most, if not all, other battleground states). Everyone says that they saw it coming all along, that Biden was always far better-positioned than Hillary Clinton, that an incumbent like Trump never had a chance, that 2018 was an obvious sign of things to come, that Democrats did not hit a ceiling in Sun Belt urban/suburban areas in 2016 and 2018, and that they never doubted that Trump only won in 2016 because of the historic unpopularity of his opponent.

Biden doesn’t gain that much ground in most areas which trended strongly Republican in 2016 (with some exceptions like counties with a large number of Native American and "anti-incumbent" voters, especially in MT), but he manages to either make small inroads or at least hold his own in those states (e.g., only losing IA by 6-7 points, and losing OH by 4-5 points), which is more than enough to win the election. Democrats finally give up on Iowa as it turns out to be Trump's best swing state and Ernst wins reelection despite the Democratic onslaught, not least due to her #retailpolitics.

The Senate is incredibly close and not called on election night, with the closest races (decided by less than five percentage points) being MT (which is one of the last races to be called, as Daines does worse than Gianforte and Rosendale and the race is nip and tuck throughout the night until the wee hours), NC, GA-R, MI, TX, KS, and ME. MI and TX in particular are more competitive than initially expected, as Cornyn barely outperforms Trump and Peters actually runs behind Biden. Both GA seats go to a runoff, and Perdue just barely receives fewer votes than Ossoff in the first round as his Gwinnett GOTV Gang falls asleep at the wheel and his Cobb County Connections abandon him. There’s more split-ticket voting in smaller states (MT/AK/KS/ME) than expected. McSally and Gardner lose pretty badly (Gardner by more than Jones), and Tommy Tuberville picks up AL by an embarrassing margin after national Republican groups + Trump come to his rescue (he barely outperforms Roy Moore in urban AL and even slightly underperforms him in a few suburban counties, but is pulled across the finish line by presidential year turnout among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents, the absence of a lopsided enthusiasm gap, and Trump's 22-point margin in the presidential race in AL).