Bold Predictions for November
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« Reply #100 on: May 25, 2020, 10:45:58 PM »

Campaign
-Roy Cooper becomes Donald Trumps latest twitter target after he blocks the RNC from holding the convention in his state. The move helps rally Republicans against him but Cooper still wins by 6 on Election Day.
-A Trump rally is shutdown by local health authorities after the President ignores social distancing guidelines.
-At least one “semi credible” twitter journalist reports that the DNC is considering forcing Biden to drop out of the race over concerns over his ability to beat Trump. Though nothing comes out of the rumour.
-Joe Biden commits a verbal gaffe on a similar level as Kerry’s famous  "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it," though unlike with Kerry it won’t cost him that election.
-Jeff Flake publicly endorses Joe Biden  
-At least one potential electoral college elector in a state that has a credible chance of going to their party will publicly threaten not to vote for their parties nominee in the electoral college vote.

Results
-Texas will be listed as too close to call by the networks on election night though will vote for Trump.
-John James will only outperform Trump by less than 1% as both lose the state by around 7%
-Doug Jones just barely cracks 40% as he is defeated overwhelmingly.
-Steve Bullock loses by more than 5% helping prove split ticketing is close to dead.
-No state is within 1%. Wisconsin is the closest at 1.5% as it goes to Biden.
Biden wins 52% with college educated whites while only doing 2% better with non college educated whites than Clinton did.
-Trump cracks 30% and 10% with Hispanics and African Americans respectively.
-One of OK-5/SC-1/NY-22 stays Dem.
-Dems pick up at least two of NY-1/NY-2/NJ-2
-Republicans pick up one seat that isn’t MN-7 that was held by the Dems entering 2018.
-Democrat’s gain NC/AZ/CO/ME while losing AL in the senate.
-Biden loses no Hillary state while picking up MI/WI/PA/NC/FL and AZ.
-At least one Hillary state votes to the right of Michigan.
If Trump gets 10% AA he isn't losing all those states.
That would only be a 2% increase from 2016 which cancels out his 2% losses with non college educated whites. Trump than loses roughly 3% with college educated whites. If anything I’m bring generous to Trump by not putting GA in Biden’s column.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #101 on: May 25, 2020, 11:13:16 PM »

AZ is not close and Trump wins there by about 6%.

VA will vote to the right of NV and CO. Trump wins VA by 1% while losing NV by 1% and CO by 3%.
COVID-19 will help Trump.

McSally squeaks by in the AZ senate race, Winning by 2% on the back of Trump.

Gardner loses but only narrowly by 1.5%.

NC and ME hold for the GOP while MI flips. The senate is 54-46.

Republicans come very close to taking the House but fall short. 221-214.

PA and MI could both vote right of WI.

NM is in play. Trump comes up only 3.5% short.

TX will shift heavily to the right and give Trump a 15% win.

Trump wins by 2% in the popular vote.

Yep, still a Trump optimist.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #102 on: May 25, 2020, 11:21:28 PM »

AZ is not close and Trump wins there by about 6%.

VA will vote to the right of NV and CO. Trump wins VA by 1% while losing NV by 1% and CO by 3%.
COVID-19 will help Trump.

McSally squeaks by in the AZ senate race, Winning by 2% on the back of Trump.

Gardner loses but only narrowly by 1.5%.

NC and ME hold for the GOP while MI flips. The senate is 54-46.

Republicans come very close to taking the House but fall short. 221-214.

PA and MI could both vote right of WI.

NM is in play. Trump comes up only 3.5% short.

TX will shift heavily to the right and give Trump a 15% win.

Trump wins by 2% in the popular vote.

Yep, still a Trump optimist.

This is less optimism and more completely ignoring every single poll that has ever come out in the last year.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #103 on: May 25, 2020, 11:23:53 PM »

AZ is not close and Trump wins there by about 6%.

VA will vote to the right of NV and CO. Trump wins VA by 1% while losing NV by 1% and CO by 3%.
COVID-19 will help Trump.

McSally squeaks by in the AZ senate race, Winning by 2% on the back of Trump.

Gardner loses but only narrowly by 1.5%.

NC and ME hold for the GOP while MI flips. The senate is 54-46.

Republicans come very close to taking the House but fall short. 221-214.

PA and MI could both vote right of WI.

NM is in play. Trump comes up only 3.5% short.

TX will shift heavily to the right and give Trump a 15% win.

Trump wins by 2% in the popular vote.

Yep, still a Trump optimist.

This is less optimism and more completely ignoring every single poll that has ever come out in the last year.

Polls didn't even mean anything during the end of the campaign in 2016 and they certainly don't exactly count for much of anything at this point. They were wrong in 2016, They were mostly wrong in 2018 and there's no evidence that they'll be right this year. Thus, I think Trump will defy the polls again.
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Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #104 on: May 25, 2020, 11:30:30 PM »

AZ is not close and Trump wins there by about 6%.

VA will vote to the right of NV and CO. Trump wins VA by 1% while losing NV by 1% and CO by 3%.
COVID-19 will help Trump.

McSally squeaks by in the AZ senate race, Winning by 2% on the back of Trump.

Gardner loses but only narrowly by 1.5%.

NC and ME hold for the GOP while MI flips. The senate is 54-46.

Republicans come very close to taking the House but fall short. 221-214.

PA and MI could both vote right of WI.

NM is in play. Trump comes up only 3.5% short.

TX will shift heavily to the right and give Trump a 15% win.

Trump wins by 2% in the popular vote.

Yep, still a Trump optimist.

This is less optimism and more completely ignoring every single poll that has ever come out in the last year.

Polls didn't even mean anything during the end of the campaign in 2016 and they certainly don't exactly count for much of anything at this point. They were wrong in 2016, They were mostly wrong in 2018 and there's no evidence that they'll be right this year. Thus, I think Trump will defy the polls again.


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Ferguson97
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« Reply #105 on: May 25, 2020, 11:35:09 PM »

AZ is not close and Trump wins there by about 6%.

VA will vote to the right of NV and CO. Trump wins VA by 1% while losing NV by 1% and CO by 3%.
COVID-19 will help Trump.

McSally squeaks by in the AZ senate race, Winning by 2% on the back of Trump.

Gardner loses but only narrowly by 1.5%.

NC and ME hold for the GOP while MI flips. The senate is 54-46.

Republicans come very close to taking the House but fall short. 221-214.

PA and MI could both vote right of WI.

NM is in play. Trump comes up only 3.5% short.

TX will shift heavily to the right and give Trump a 15% win.

Trump wins by 2% in the popular vote.

Yep, still a Trump optimist.

This is less optimism and more completely ignoring every single poll that has ever come out in the last year.

Polls didn't even mean anything during the end of the campaign in 2016 and they certainly don't exactly count for much of anything at this point. They were wrong in 2016, They were mostly wrong in 2018 and there's no evidence that they'll be right this year. Thus, I think Trump will defy the polls again.

I'm beating a dead horse at this point but.

The polls were mostly right in 2016. Excluding Wisconsin, the ones that were wrong were mostly within the margin of error.

The polls were mostly right in 2018, except for Florida.

You really need to pay attention to the actual polls themselves and not the pundit's interpretations of polls.

Polls: "Hillary leads by 2 points in 9/10 Michigan polls, with a margin of error of 3."

Media: (incorrectly) "HILLARY HAS A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE PRESIDENCY."

538 was the most accurate, giving Trump a 30% chance of winning, which was correct. He did have a 30% chance of winning. It's just that 30% happened. If the weather forecast said 30% chance of rain, you'd bring an umbrella.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #106 on: May 25, 2020, 11:41:41 PM »

AZ is not close and Trump wins there by about 6%.

VA will vote to the right of NV and CO. Trump wins VA by 1% while losing NV by 1% and CO by 3%.
COVID-19 will help Trump.

McSally squeaks by in the AZ senate race, Winning by 2% on the back of Trump.

Gardner loses but only narrowly by 1.5%.

NC and ME hold for the GOP while MI flips. The senate is 54-46.

Republicans come very close to taking the House but fall short. 221-214.

PA and MI could both vote right of WI.

NM is in play. Trump comes up only 3.5% short.

TX will shift heavily to the right and give Trump a 15% win.

Trump wins by 2% in the popular vote.

Yep, still a Trump optimist.

This is less optimism and more completely ignoring every single poll that has ever come out in the last year.

Polls didn't even mean anything during the end of the campaign in 2016 and they certainly don't exactly count for much of anything at this point. They were wrong in 2016, They were mostly wrong in 2018 and there's no evidence that they'll be right this year. Thus, I think Trump will defy the polls again.

I'm beating a dead horse at this point but.

The polls were mostly right in 2016. Excluding Wisconsin, the ones that were wrong were mostly within the margin of error.

The polls were mostly right in 2018, except for Florida.

You really need to pay attention to the actual polls themselves and not the pundit's interpretations of polls.

Polls: "Hillary leads by 2 points in 9/10 Michigan polls, with a margin of error of 3."

Media: (incorrectly) "HILLARY HAS A 90% CHANCE OF WINNING THE PRESIDENCY."

538 was the most accurate, giving Trump a 30% chance of winning, which was correct. He did have a 30% chance of winning. It's just that 30% happened. If the weather forecast said 30% chance of rain, you'd bring an umbrella.
Uh.........say what now?

Find me a single source that says most, let alone 90%, of the Michigan polls had Trump within 2 points.

Also, the claim that Trump had a 30% chance in 2016 is just total, pure BS sugared-up hindsight bias and/or narrative spinning.

Very emphatically, he did not - based on any reasonably interpretation of the empirically data availably.

It is plain false to say he had a 30% shot, especially not if because just Nate Silver said so. Heck you could sooner make the argument he was a 2/3 lock to win!
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Lognog
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« Reply #107 on: May 26, 2020, 12:09:06 AM »

AZ is not close and Trump wins there by about 6%.

VA will vote to the right of NV and CO. Trump wins VA by 1% while losing NV by 1% and CO by 3%.
COVID-19 will help Trump.

McSally squeaks by in the AZ senate race, Winning by 2% on the back of Trump.

Gardner loses but only narrowly by 1.5%.

NC and ME hold for the GOP while MI flips. The senate is 54-46.

Republicans come very close to taking the House but fall short. 221-214.

PA and MI could both vote right of WI.

NM is in play. Trump comes up only 3.5% short.

TX will shift heavily to the right and give Trump a 15% win.

Trump wins by 2% in the popular vote.

Yep, still a Trump optimist.

This is less optimism and more completely ignoring every single poll that has ever come out in the last year.

Polls didn't even mean anything during the end of the campaign in 2016 and they certainly don't exactly count for much of anything at this point. They were wrong in 2016, They were mostly wrong in 2018 and there's no evidence that they'll be right this year. Thus, I think Trump will defy the polls again.

While many states polls were and are garbage, the national polling was spot on in 2016 and is usually a good predictor has Biden as up 6 points nationally.

If Biden is even up 4 points literally none of 538 said could be true
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #108 on: May 26, 2020, 05:16:13 AM »
« Edited: May 26, 2020, 05:19:46 AM by Penn_Quaker_Girl »



TX will shift heavily to the right and give Trump a 15% win.

Yep, still a Trump optimist.


I can't see Trump surging in Texas if he can't flip support in formerly-Republican suburbs (such as the one in which I was raised).  

Of course, this is anecdotal and I can't speak for every one of these voters in every single Texas suburb, but these old-guard Bush-era Republicans (mostly white and college-educated) DON'T like Trump.  And it's not even a "he has a big mouth and I wish he'd tweet less, but I'll still vote for him"-type situation.  

Now, that's not to say that these voters will unanimously switch their registration and start voting Democratic from now on, but Trump needs these voters to attain pre-2016 level margins -- combined with a modest surge in rural votes. 

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #109 on: May 26, 2020, 05:34:53 AM »

AZ is not close and Trump wins there by about 6%.

VA will vote to the right of NV and CO. Trump wins VA by 1% while losing NV by 1% and CO by 3%.
COVID-19 will help Trump.

McSally squeaks by in the AZ senate race, Winning by 2% on the back of Trump.

Gardner loses but only narrowly by 1.5%.

NC and ME hold for the GOP while MI flips. The senate is 54-46.

Republicans come very close to taking the House but fall short. 221-214.

PA and MI could both vote right of WI.

NM is in play. Trump comes up only 3.5% short.

TX will shift heavily to the right and give Trump a 15% win.

Trump wins by 2% in the popular vote.

Yep, still a Trump optimist.

This is less optimism and more completely ignoring every single poll that has ever come out in the last year.

What's the point of a bold prediction if you can't even say Trump can win big? I don't agree with it, think it's about as likely as a Biden 400+EV landslide but c'mon, no one is telling those people that they're ignoring facts and evidence.
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Jopow
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« Reply #110 on: May 26, 2020, 09:51:35 AM »

I think Trump will win re election regardless of the EV count. However, I think It he will win big. He will definitely pick up NH and ME (at large) as well as Minnesota. Then, I think he could also take Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. I think that's about it, but it would not be too far out that he picks up a blue state like Oregon or Connecticut.

VERY BOLD prediction lol.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #111 on: May 26, 2020, 09:58:34 AM »

I think Trump will win re election regardless of the EV count. However, I think It he will win big. He will definitely pick up NH and ME (at large) as well as Minnesota. Then, I think he could also take Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. I think that's about it, but it would not be too far out that he picks up a blue state like Oregon or Connecticut.

VERY BOLD prediction lol.

I'm all for bold predictions in this thread, but there's a difference between bold and LOL'd. Smiley

Welcome to the forum!
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Jopow
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« Reply #112 on: May 26, 2020, 10:11:33 AM »

I think Trump will win re election regardless of the EV count. However, I think It he will win big. He will definitely pick up NH and ME (at large) as well as Minnesota. Then, I think he could also take Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. I think that's about it, but it would not be too far out that he picks up a blue state like Oregon or Connecticut.

VERY BOLD prediction lol.

I'm all for bold predictions in this thread, but there's a difference between bold and LOL'd. Smiley

Welcome to the forum!
Cheesy Thanks!
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #113 on: May 26, 2020, 10:15:04 AM »

I think Trump will win re election regardless of the EV count. However, I think It he will win big. He will definitely pick up NH and ME (at large) as well as Minnesota. Then, I think he could also take Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. I think that's about it, but it would not be too far out that he picks up a blue state like Oregon or Connecticut.

VERY BOLD prediction lol.

Welcome to Talk Elections!
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #114 on: May 26, 2020, 10:16:10 AM »

Minnesota votes to the right of Arizona
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #115 on: May 26, 2020, 11:34:56 AM »

After all the concerns about a 2016 redux and "underestimating Trump"; four years of bedwetting, overanalysis, and "learning lessons"; and excessive focus on/obsession over the "WWC" Obama/Trump voter, Donald Trump's presidency is ended by the "silent" suburban voter who couldn’t stomach voting for Hillary Clinton and considered Trump the lesser of two evils in 2016, record Democratic turnout across the country (but especially in metropolitan America, where we see unprecedented numbers for a Democratic presidential candidate in cities like Atlanta, Austin, and Bozeman Tongue), and Biden's inroads among voters 65 and older. Biden flips MI, PA, AZ, NE-02, and two other states. States with the strongest D swings include MT, KS, TX, and AZ (which votes to the left of most, if not all, other battleground states). Everyone says that they saw it coming all along, that Biden was always far better-positioned than Hillary Clinton, that an incumbent like Trump never had a chance, that 2018 was an obvious sign of things to come, that Democrats did not hit a ceiling in Sun Belt urban/suburban areas in 2016 and 2018, and that they never doubted that Trump only won in 2016 because of the historic unpopularity of his opponent.

Biden doesn’t gain that much ground in most areas which trended strongly Republican in 2016 (with some exceptions like counties with a large number of Native American and "anti-incumbent" voters, especially in MT), but he manages to either make small inroads or at least hold his own in those states (e.g., only losing IA by 6-7 points, and losing OH by 4-5 points), which is more than enough to win the election. Democrats finally give up on Iowa as it turns out to be Trump's best swing state and Ernst wins reelection despite the Democratic onslaught, not least due to her #retailpolitics.

The Senate is incredibly close and not called on election night, with the closest races (decided by less than five percentage points) being MT (which is one of the last races to be called, as Daines does worse than Gianforte and Rosendale and the race is nip and tuck throughout the night until the wee hours), NC, GA-R, MI, TX, KS, and ME. MI and TX in particular are more competitive than initially expected, as Cornyn barely outperforms Trump and Peters actually runs behind Biden. Both GA seats go to a runoff, and Perdue just barely receives fewer votes than Ossoff in the first round as his Gwinnett GOTV Gang falls asleep at the wheel and his Cobb County Connections abandon him. There’s more split-ticket voting in smaller states (MT/AK/KS/ME) than expected. McSally and Gardner lose pretty badly (Gardner by more than Jones), and Tommy Tuberville picks up AL by an embarrassing margin after national Republican groups + Trump come to his rescue (he barely outperforms Roy Moore in urban AL and even slightly underperforms him in a few suburban counties, but is pulled across the finish line by presidential year turnout among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents, the absence of a lopsided enthusiasm gap, and Trump's 22-point margin in the presidential race in AL).
LOL That is a pipe dream.  You are basically saying 2016 was a fluke.

Yes it was.
Right all those WWC voters will magically flip to dems. The truth is both things are happening. GOP is continuing to lose more college educated whites while democrats continue to lose more WWC. Biden def does worse with WWC than Hillary which is why MN will flip and Trump keeps all the midwest states. He will lose GA or AZ before he loses the Midwest.

While I don't think Minnesota will flip to Trump, I nevertheless agree with the overall thrust of what you say here. Before I undertook my hiatus, I marveled on another thread how Tom Wolf won reelection in Pennsylvania by a wider margin in 2018 than in 2014, despite winning fewer counties overall. And for that observation, I was mocked. But now, I will bring it back again, so as to make a broader analysis of what we will see in the Midwest this fall.

If you look at Wolf's first gubernatorial victory in 2014, before Trump's upset in Pennsylvania, you'll notice that he carried the typical suburban counties that are now solidly Democratic (i.e. Delaware, Chester, Montgomery) and the other counties that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. However, he also won several rural, ancesterally Democratic working-class counties that were once a key part of their coalition:


You'll also notice that he did reasonably well throughout much of the interior regions of the state as well, breaking 40% in several counties where Hillary Clinton barely managed 30%.

In 2018, however, Wolf's coalition changed:


As one can see, he significantly improved in the Philadelphia suburban counties, breaking 60% in all of them except swing Bucks County (Bucks went to him by double digits, closely matching his overall statewide margin, as it matched the statewide margin in 2016). Chester County, in particular, went from being Wolf +4 in 2014 to Wolf +23 in 2018. He also significantly improved in Allegheny County, gaining 10 percentage points there compared to 2014, and flipped wealthy exurban Cumberland County. However, Wolf lost Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Schuylkill, Carbon, Lawrence, Northumberland, and Clinton Counties, which he had carried in 2014. He also did significantly worse in Luzerne County, winning it by 5 against Wagner while he had carried it by 12 against Corbett.

To summarize, Wolf gained college-educated suburbanites who are trending Democratic, but lost white working-class voters who are trending Republican. The exact same patterns will manifest themselves in Pennsylvania (and in Wisconsin and Michigan as well) this year. However, another critical point is that Wolf's gains among suburbanites outweighed his losses among white working-class voters, which is why he won by a wider margin last time than in 2014. I wouldn't surprised if this happens with Biden. If Biden can come close to replicating Wolf's numbers in the Philadelphia suburbs and Allegheny County, then he will win Pennsylvania, even if he loses further ground to Trump in the rural and working-class areas.
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Camaro33
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« Reply #116 on: May 26, 2020, 12:03:35 PM »

Trump wins the election and is close in the popular vote despite mail-in ballots. In the immediate days before the election, news spreads on social media from young adults ranting that they didn't receive a ballot. Many others say they find out their parents voted Trump for them. This news continues to go on for weeks after the election and is allegedly widespread.

Voter fraud becomes alleged by the media now in an ironic reverse fashion, and they have another four years of Trump to deal with.

(the title said bold!)
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #117 on: May 26, 2020, 12:06:49 PM »

Trump wins the election and is close in the popular vote despite mail-in ballots. In the immediate days before the election, news spreads on social media from young adults ranting that they didn't receive a ballot. Many others say they find out their parents voted Trump for them. This news continues to go on for weeks after the election and is allegedly widespread.

Voter fraud becomes alleged by the media now in an ironic reverse fashion, and they have another four years of Trump to deal with.

(the title said bold!)

This is honestly a worry of mine. Abusive husbands watching over their wives shoulders as they're pressured to fill in Trump to avoid a beating. Parents filling out their kid's ballots for them. Could get messy.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #118 on: May 26, 2020, 12:38:58 PM »

We are in recovery now and not in a Recession, Trump best scenario was getting back to a neutral year and we are seeing signs of that now. The last Rassy poll had Bideb up 5.

Ds can very well win a narrow majority in the House and tie the Senate, but Trump is far from done, and he will have 911 as a backdrop to his convention.

Biden held up in his basement was a flawed strategy, due to not wanting to deal with Reade and comments made about AA, does mean guilt; otherwise he would of taken reporters Q and A
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #119 on: May 26, 2020, 01:34:30 PM »

I think Trump will win re election regardless of the EV count. However, I think It he will win big. He will definitely pick up NH and ME (at large) as well as Minnesota. Then, I think he could also take Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. I think that's about it, but it would not be too far out that he picks up a blue state like Oregon or Connecticut.

VERY BOLD prediction lol.

Welcome to the forum!
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Jopow
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« Reply #120 on: May 26, 2020, 01:35:47 PM »

I think Trump will win re election regardless of the EV count. However, I think It he will win big. He will definitely pick up NH and ME (at large) as well as Minnesota. Then, I think he could also take Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. I think that's about it, but it would not be too far out that he picks up a blue state like Oregon or Connecticut.

VERY BOLD prediction lol.

Welcome to Talk Elections!
Thanks! :-)
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #121 on: May 26, 2020, 01:37:25 PM »

After all the concerns about a 2016 redux and "underestimating Trump"; four years of bedwetting, overanalysis, and "learning lessons"; and excessive focus on/obsession over the "WWC" Obama/Trump voter, Donald Trump's presidency is ended by the "silent" suburban voter who couldn’t stomach voting for Hillary Clinton and considered Trump the lesser of two evils in 2016, record Democratic turnout across the country (but especially in metropolitan America, where we see unprecedented numbers for a Democratic presidential candidate in cities like Atlanta, Austin, and Bozeman Tongue), and Biden's inroads among voters 65 and older. Biden flips MI, PA, AZ, NE-02, and two other states. States with the strongest D swings include MT, KS, TX, and AZ (which votes to the left of most, if not all, other battleground states). Everyone says that they saw it coming all along, that Biden was always far better-positioned than Hillary Clinton, that an incumbent like Trump never had a chance, that 2018 was an obvious sign of things to come, that Democrats did not hit a ceiling in Sun Belt urban/suburban areas in 2016 and 2018, and that they never doubted that Trump only won in 2016 because of the historic unpopularity of his opponent.

Biden doesn’t gain that much ground in most areas which trended strongly Republican in 2016 (with some exceptions like counties with a large number of Native American and "anti-incumbent" voters, especially in MT), but he manages to either make small inroads or at least hold his own in those states (e.g., only losing IA by 6-7 points, and losing OH by 4-5 points), which is more than enough to win the election. Democrats finally give up on Iowa as it turns out to be Trump's best swing state and Ernst wins reelection despite the Democratic onslaught, not least due to her #retailpolitics.

The Senate is incredibly close and not called on election night, with the closest races (decided by less than five percentage points) being MT (which is one of the last races to be called, as Daines does worse than Gianforte and Rosendale and the race is nip and tuck throughout the night until the wee hours), NC, GA-R, MI, TX, KS, and ME. MI and TX in particular are more competitive than initially expected, as Cornyn barely outperforms Trump and Peters actually runs behind Biden. Both GA seats go to a runoff, and Perdue just barely receives fewer votes than Ossoff in the first round as his Gwinnett GOTV Gang falls asleep at the wheel and his Cobb County Connections abandon him. There’s more split-ticket voting in smaller states (MT/AK/KS/ME) than expected. McSally and Gardner lose pretty badly (Gardner by more than Jones), and Tommy Tuberville picks up AL by an embarrassing margin after national Republican groups + Trump come to his rescue (he barely outperforms Roy Moore in urban AL and even slightly underperforms him in a few suburban counties, but is pulled across the finish line by presidential year turnout among Republicans/Republican-leaning independents, the absence of a lopsided enthusiasm gap, and Trump's 22-point margin in the presidential race in AL).
LOL That is a pipe dream.  You are basically saying 2016 was a fluke.

Yes it was.
Right all those WWC voters will magically flip to dems. The truth is both things are happening. GOP is continuing to lose more college educated whites while democrats continue to lose more WWC. Biden def does worse with WWC than Hillary which is why MN will flip and Trump keeps all the midwest states. He will lose GA or AZ before he loses the Midwest.

While I don't think Minnesota will flip to Trump, I nevertheless agree with the overall thrust of what you say here. Before I undertook my hiatus, I marveled on another thread how Tom Wolf won reelection in Pennsylvania by a wider margin in 2018 than in 2014, despite winning fewer counties overall. And for that observation, I was mocked. But now, I will bring it back again, so as to make a broader analysis of what we will see in the Midwest this fall.

If you look at Wolf's first gubernatorial victory in 2014, before Trump's upset in Pennsylvania, you'll notice that he carried the typical suburban counties that are now solidly Democratic (i.e. Delaware, Chester, Montgomery) and the other counties that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. However, he also won several rural, ancesterally Democratic working-class counties that were once a key part of their coalition:


You'll also notice that he did reasonably well throughout much of the interior regions of the state as well, breaking 40% in several counties where Hillary Clinton barely managed 30%.

In 2018, however, Wolf's coalition changed:


As one can see, he significantly improved in the Philadelphia suburban counties, breaking 60% in all of them except swing Bucks County (Bucks went to him by double digits, closely matching his overall statewide margin, as it matched the statewide margin in 2016). Chester County, in particular, went from being Wolf +4 in 2014 to Wolf +23 in 2018. He also significantly improved in Allegheny County, gaining 10 percentage points there compared to 2014, and flipped wealthy exurban Cumberland County. However, Wolf lost Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Schuylkill, Carbon, Lawrence, Northumberland, and Clinton Counties, which he had carried in 2014. He also did significantly worse in Luzerne County, winning it by 5 against Wagner while he had carried it by 12 against Corbett.

To summarize, Wolf gained college-educated suburbanites who are trending Democratic, but lost white working-class voters who are trending Republican. The exact same patterns will manifest themselves in Pennsylvania (and in Wisconsin and Michigan as well) this year. However, another critical point is that Wolf's gains among suburbanites outweighed his losses among white working-class voters, which is why he won by a wider margin last time than in 2014. I wouldn't surprised if this happens with Biden. If Biden can come close to replicating Wolf's numbers in the Philadelphia suburbs and Allegheny County, then he will win Pennsylvania, even if he loses further ground to Trump in the rural and working-class areas.
Clinton made those same types of gains against Trump though, and yet it still didn't guarantee her victory there. And so, what's to say any different chances will happen for Biden this year?
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Jopow
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« Reply #122 on: May 26, 2020, 01:38:24 PM »

I think Trump will win re election regardless of the EV count. However, I think It he will win big. He will definitely pick up NH and ME (at large) as well as Minnesota. Then, I think he could also take Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. I think that's about it, but it would not be too far out that he picks up a blue state like Oregon or Connecticut.

VERY BOLD prediction lol.

Welcome to the forum!
Thank you! Smiley
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #123 on: May 26, 2020, 01:38:56 PM »

Trump wins the election and is close in the popular vote despite mail-in ballots. In the immediate days before the election, news spreads on social media from young adults ranting that they didn't receive a ballot. Many others say they find out their parents voted Trump for them. This news continues to go on for weeks after the election and is allegedly widespread.

Voter fraud becomes alleged by the media now in an ironic reverse fashion, and they have another four years of Trump to deal with.

(the title said bold!)

This is honestly a worry of mine. Abusive husbands watching over their wives shoulders as they're pressured to fill in Trump to avoid a beating. Parents filling out their kid's ballots for them. Could get messy.

Now, I sure hope you're being sarcastic here...
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #124 on: May 26, 2020, 01:53:11 PM »

Trump wins the election and is close in the popular vote despite mail-in ballots. In the immediate days before the election, news spreads on social media from young adults ranting that they didn't receive a ballot. Many others say they find out their parents voted Trump for them. This news continues to go on for weeks after the election and is allegedly widespread.

Voter fraud becomes alleged by the media now in an ironic reverse fashion, and they have another four years of Trump to deal with.

(the title said bold!)

This is honestly a worry of mine. Abusive husbands watching over their wives shoulders as they're pressured to fill in Trump to avoid a beating. Parents filling out their kid's ballots for them. Could get messy.

Now, I sure hope you're being sarcastic here...

You don't think that could happen?
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