2012 if Democrats kept the House in 2010
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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  2012 if Democrats kept the House in 2010
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President Johnson
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« on: May 23, 2020, 11:14:08 AM »
« edited: May 25, 2020, 02:04:14 PM by President Johnson »

Part of Obama's reelection strategy was to blame Republicans in the House of obstruction and gridlock. What if Republicans gained seats in the 2010 midterms, but not enough to flip the House? Remember that Democrats had 257 seats after the 2008 election. So they could have lost 25-30 and still control the chamber. What laws would have been passed in the 112th congress and how would that have impacted the 2012 election?
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TheElectoralBoobyPrize
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« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2020, 06:26:08 PM »

I doubt there’s any major legislative achievements given the Democrats’ still reduced majorities. And going into 2012, Democrats still get the credit/blame for pretty much anything that happens. I don’t mean to say it’s all good news for Republicans....they’d be taking a risk.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2020, 01:42:54 PM »

Probably a narrow Obama win in 2012, with more focus on the House in 2014, which might let Democrats keep the Senate even though they'd lose the House by a wide margin.

Due to the Democrats' then-unwillingness to dump the legislative filibuster, though, much of Obama's agenda could still be killed. However, if the Democrats did well enough to regain control of the House in 2012, then that means that they almost certainly also did well enough to carry a couple of Senate races that they narrowly lost that year in real life: AZ & NV. Coming out of 2012 with a 57-43 majority in the Senate, they could get immigration reform to pass even with minimal GOP support.
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