What happened to John Kerry in Florida?

[MARGINS6729]

Polls were extremely close and Bush ended up winning 52-47, a comfortable 5 point margin. What happened?

Bush's brother Jeb was Governor of that state at the time and so it likely helps. And Bush won 44 % of the national Hispanic vote and with numbers like that likely propels Bush to victory in Florida where he benefited from massive Cuban American support.

That's only partly a Reason. If you look at the County-by-County Map Bush significantly outperformed in the I4-Corridor from 2000 to 2004. He won every single County in the I4 except for Orange where he lost by 1.7 Points. He won Pinellas, H'Borough, Polk (which is more Republican now), Osceola (which was a true Swing County back then but is a Democratic County today)

The Memo still holds true: You win the I4 in Florida you probably end up winning the State as a whole.

This is correct. Bush did extremely well with suburban and exurban whites in I-4 corridor and Tampa and did very well with Latinos. He lost Miami-Dade county by just 6.3%. Trump lost it by nearly 30%!

However, Kerry did better than Gore in Miami-Dade County in terms of raw votes while a bit worse than Gore in Palm Beach and Broward.

[MARGINS6729]

Polls were extremely close and Bush ended up winning 52-47, a comfortable 5 point margin. What happened?

Bush's brother Jeb was Governor of that state at the time and so it likely helps. And Bush won 44 % of the national Hispanic vote and with numbers like that likely propels Bush to victory in Florida where he benefited from massive Cuban American support.

That's only partly a Reason. If you look at the County-by-County Map Bush significantly outperformed in the I4-Corridor from 2000 to 2004. He won every single County in the I4 except for Orange where he lost by 1.7 Points. He won Pinellas, H'Borough, Polk (which is more Republican now), Osceola (which was a true Swing County back then but is a Democratic County today)

The Memo still holds true: You win the I4 in Florida you probably end up winning the State as a whole.

All true except Pinellas is not in the I-4 corridor. This is one of my nitpicky things because the term is so misused. The I-4 Corridor is comprised of Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, and Volusia counties. It doesn't include Pinellas, Pasco, etc. People used to say I-4  alone decided the state because a good chunk of  those six counties were more purple in the past  like you said but that isn't the case today. They obviously still play an extremely important role but as demographic shifts have occurred inside the counties and in the counties that surround them (Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, Citrus, Lake, Sumter, Marion, Brevard, and maybe Flagler) which makes  Central Florida the more accurate term.

Political operatives  use "I-4"  as a misnomer term for the Tampa Bay/Orlando media markets being the key areas which is almost accurate but is incorrect too because  counties like Taylor, Hardee,  Suwanee, and Wakulla(all included in the Tampa Bay media market) are NOT tossup counties or remotely competitive in any way. The term should just be changed to Central Florida and be limited to the counties I mentioned above with the possible exception of Flagler.