Polls were extremely close and Bush ended up winning 52-47, a comfortable 5 point margin. What happened?
Bush's brother Jeb was Governor of that state at the time and so it likely helps. And Bush won 44 % of the national Hispanic vote and with numbers like that likely propels Bush to victory in Florida where he benefited from massive Cuban American support.
That's only partly a Reason. If you look at the County-by-County Map Bush significantly outperformed in the I4-Corridor from 2000 to 2004. He won every single County in the I4 except for Orange where he lost by 1.7 Points. He won Pinellas, H'Borough, Polk (which is more Republican now), Osceola (which was a true Swing County back then but is a Democratic County today)
The Memo still holds true: You win the I4 in Florida you probably end up winning the State as a whole.
