State legislatures

[jimrtex]

In Texas, there are 16 Senate seats up, 11 GOP and 5 Democrat.  Since there is one less seat (31 v. 32), Texas senate districts are larger than the congressional districts, and can take quite a bit of money to contest.  Democrats aren't even challenging in 6 of the GOP seats, including an open seat in rural East Texas.

Dem. Senator Armbrister (D-Victoria) is retiring, and the GOP has a good chance of a pickup, in a district that comes into the far western Houston suburbs.   Armbrister is the one Democrat senator who didn't join the Santa Fe filibuster in 2003 - in part because he knew it could be a campaign issue in his district, and in part because he knew the Democrats would carve up his district into bacon strips if they had the chance.

An incumbent Democrat in a seat that is somewhat similar to Henry Bonilla's CD.  The defeated Democrat had been known to work with Republicans.  Conceivably, this is an outside chance for another GOP pickup.

There are 150 House seats, all up for election.  Because house districts only have about 140,000 people, they tend to be more homogenous, and non-competitive.  In urban areas, representatives are largely unknown, and people vote party.  In small cities and rural areas, incumbents are pretty well entrenched regardless of party.   5 incumbents (4 GOP, 1 Dem) were beaten in the primary, and 3 others (2 Dem, 1 GOP) face runoffs.  These are pretty much party-safe seats.  One reason they were contested was because there was almost no risk of a upset turning a seat over to the other party.

ex-Speaker Pete Laney (D-Hale Center) is retiring, and 4 GOP candidates jumped into the primary in his largely rural South Plains seat.  Democrats may pick up a seat or two in the Austin area, and maybe one or two in Houston or Dallas.

The only interesting statewide race is the governor's race, and it is hard to say what impact that will have on turnout.    With an underfunded Bell, Democrats might not realize there is an election being held.  If Democrats vote for Strayhorn, they may not realize that they can vote a straight ticket (In Texas, a straight ticket vote simply sets the default for the other races, which can be overidden for other races).  Conceivably, Republican turnout will be helped by the Perry-Strayhorn contest.

[Sam Spade]

An incumbent Democrat in a seat that is somewhat similar to Henry Bonilla's CD.  The defeated Democrat had been known to work with Republicans.  Conceivably, this is an outside chance for another GOP pickup.

Are you talking about the Frank Madla seat?  If so, who are the Republican candidates in the race?  As I remember, the Dem who won the primary is left of Madla.

You beat my knowledge on this, honestly, though I know that many of the State seats don't even have Rep. or Dem. challengers and therefore won't switch.

[jimrtex]

An incumbent Democrat in a seat that is somewhat similar to Henry Bonilla's CD.  The defeated Democrat had been known to work with Republicans.  Conceivably, this is an outside chance for another GOP pickup.

Are you talking about the Frank Madla seat?  If so, who are the Republican candidates in the race?  As I remember, the Dem who won the primary is left of Madla.

Madla, yes.  Uresti is a state representative in San Antonio.  In 2004, the Democrats went after a bunch of representatives who had worked with the GOP and defeated a half dozen or so.  This was their first chance at Madla (since the terms of Senators are 4 years, with 1/2 elected every 2 years).

Bush carried the district 53-47.  About 1/2 the vote was in Bonilla's district which he carried 62K-26K.  The other big chuck is in Cuellar's district which he carried 17K-41K.  There are small bits in 3 other CDs that went 8K-12K (R-D).   Just over 1/2 the population is in Bexar County, with the next largest at around 6-7% in Maveriick (Eagle Pass), Val Verde (Del Rio), El Paso (El Paso, but may not get into city), and Medina (just west of San Antonio).

The GOP candidate is Dick Bowen (district is 69% Hispanic VAP).

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The Democrats came up with challengers in a surprising number of House seats, but I don't think they are competitive.  The GOP has an 86-64 advantage, but the uncontested seats are 34-42, so where there is a contest the GOP holds 52-22 advantage.

There could be recounts in 4 GOP House primaries.

[Sam Spade]

The Democrats came up with challengers in a surprising number of House seats, but I don't think they are competitive.  The GOP has an 86-64 advantage, but the uncontested seats are 34-42, so where there is a contest the GOP holds 52-22 advantage.

There could be recounts in 4 GOP House primaries.

Fair enough.  I'm familiar with the new strategy of the Democratic party (as a whole) of trying to run candidates even in safe Republican areas.  After all, Texas Democrats are running candidates in 21 out of the 22 Republican CDs and I really only give one of them a shot (we know which one that is).  The rest are seriously not competitive.

In your estimation, out of the 52 State House seats that are Republican and being contested by Democrats and the 22 seats that are Democrat and being contested by Republicans, how many of these seats are actually "potentially vulnerable", using a fairly broad definition of "potentially vulnerable".

[WMS]

"Santa Fe Democrat Luciano "Lucky" Varela is giving up his seat to run for state treasurer."

Luciano Varela represents House District 48, a very Democratic district that will certainly pick a Democrat to replace him.

Or not. Read the details here, in the Tuesday, March 14, 2006 section, underneath the Domenici re-election news.

Now, I've met James Lewis in person, and he is very nice and very, very, talented. He's almost certain to have my vote this year for state treasurer. This is also the same job he won a decade or so ago when he was the first statewide elected black in NM. Finally, a good candidate on the ballot in NM!

[socaldem]

An incumbent Democrat in a seat that is somewhat similar to Henry Bonilla's CD.  The defeated Democrat had been known to work with Republicans.  Conceivably, this is an outside chance for another GOP pickup.

Are you talking about the Frank Madla seat?  If so, who are the Republican candidates in the race?  As I remember, the Dem who won the primary is left of Madla.

Madla, yes.  Uresti is a state representative in San Antonio.  In 2004, the Democrats went after a bunch of representatives who had worked with the GOP and defeated a half dozen or so.  This was their first chance at Madla (since the terms of Senators are 4 years, with 1/2 elected every 2 years).

Bush carried the district 53-47.  About 1/2 the vote was in Bonilla's district which he carried 62K-26K.  The other big chuck is in Cuellar's district which he carried 17K-41K.  There are small bits in 3 other CDs that went 8K-12K (R-D).   Just over 1/2 the population is in Bexar County, with the next largest at around 6-7% in Maveriick (Eagle Pass), Val Verde (Del Rio), El Paso (El Paso, but may not get into city), and Medina (just west of San Antonio).

The GOP candidate is Dick Bowen (district is 69% Hispanic VAP).

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The Democrats came up with challengers in a surprising number of House seats, but I don't think they are competitive.  The GOP has an 86-64 advantage, but the uncontested seats are 34-42, so where there is a contest the GOP holds 52-22 advantage.

There could be recounts in 4 GOP House primaries.

I'm pretty confident in Uresti's chances.  Sure, he's more liberal than Madla, but he seems to be a fairly charismatic and likeable and held a fairly competitive house seat.  Moreover, Bush way overperformed in TX generally, and in South TX in particular.

That said, I hear the GOP has a good chance at a pick-up of Uresti's state house seat.  I expect Democrats to make elsewhere, adding a seat or two from Austin and Houston.  I'd really like to see Juan Garcia win down near Corpus Christi because I think he has a great future in politics... but its an uphill fight!

Of course when we're talking state assembly seats in TX, a seat hear, a seat there doesn't really matter given the size of the body and the GOP majority.

In the senate, though, I'm very disappointed in Dem recruitment...is there a single race Dems have even a remote chance of picking up?

[WMS]

This district will remain Republican...heck, if his successor is who I think it is going to be (a Rep contact and buddy of mine), I'm going to have a strong contact in the Legislature.

Or maybe not...I'll have to find out what happened when I talk to him later this week.

OK, in two weeks - scheduling issues. The good news is that Filing Day is next Tuesday so I'll have a better idea how local races are going to shape up...

[MasterJedi]

It's very unlikely that the Dems will be able to take back the state legislature in Wisconsin.

[socaldem]

It's very unlikely that the Dems will be able to take back the state legislature in Wisconsin.

I think they have an outside shot at the senate in WI.  Dems are almost guaranteed to pick up the 21st with state rep. John Lehman.

Democrats also have a good shot at the 5th and 20th districts where incumbents barely won election, and have recruited a great candidate in District 23 (Pat Kreitlow, a well-known news anchor), though the incumbent there is an institution--though, perhaps, past his prime.

With the senate divided 19-14, all it takes is three seats.

[socaldem]

In CA, all the action is on primary day and there are tons of contested primaries in both Democratic and Republican districts.

There's relaly only one senate race of any interest (isn't that sad!), Orange County's 34th district, containing Santa Ana, Garden Grove and parts of Anaheim where Senator Joe Dunn has been term-limited and is running for state controller. Demographically the district is heavily Latino, but Latinos (even considering that much of the population may not be elligible to vote) are not high propensity voters, makng the more conservative white voters concentrated in Anaheim disproportionately powerful.  Moreover, the district has a large Vietnamese population that tends to side strongly with the GOP.

The district was poised to feature two nasty primaries, but newly elected state Rep. Van Tran--the favorite son of the Vietnamese community--unexpectedly opted out of the race.  Now, it appears that moderate  (read=pro-choice, pro-environmental protection) state assemblywoman Lynn Dauscher is guaranteed the nomination.  She had been supported by another O.C. state senator--Minority Leader Dick Ackerman.  Her candidacy, however, has caused movement conservatives much consternation.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary will likely be a bloody mess.  Frmr assemblyman and County Supervisor Lou Correa is seeking the seat, as is State Rep. Tom Umberg, who has the support of the Sacramento establishment.  Correa is probably a bit more populist/conservative than Umberg and would likely be a better general election candidate because of his ability to retain Latino support (Bush did well among district Latinos) and, perhaps, to even woo conservatives disaffected with Dauscher.  Umberg's star has been slightly tarnished recently by the admission of marital infidelity, something that received more attention than most pecadillo's because his wife is politically influential.  Umberg may also be tainted because he  can be more closely associated with unpopular Sacramento politicians than Correa, who has been lauded--even by conservatives--for his handling of local issues.

Anyway, I bet that's too much information... but there you have it, CA's one interesting legislative general election!

Okay, there might be some action in the Central Valley, where retiring Democratic Rep. Barbara Matthew's district will be hard for Democrats to retain. 

Also, I think that the race in the Coachella Valley where Palm Springs Mayor Ron Oden, who is African-American and gay, is running against Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia is interesting because he's such a prominent challenger.  I don't think Garcia has much of a chance of losing, though.

[Kevinstat]

I think Maine has a Dem plurality with Greens holding the balance of power.

The partisan tally in the Maine House of Representatives right now is 74 D, 73 R, 3 I and 1 Green.  At the beginning of this term and throughout the first regular and first special sessions (the Democrats adjorned the first regular session early so that a budget passed without a 2/3 majority could go into effect in time, although they ended up ammending that budget later after a public outcry over and likely popular repeal of a controversial borrowing plan, so the first special session was basically a continuation of the first regular session), the count was 76 D, 73 R, 1 I and 1 Green, with the Independent elected as such then as now seeming to have a Bernie Sanders-like relationship with the Democratic leadership and caucus (I think he actually caucuses with the Democrats, and he is the House chair of one committee and was House chair of a Joint Special Committee that did business last year), although if this state Representative was a Democrat he would likely be on the more moderate (so conservative for a Democratic state Legislator) wing of the party, while Sanders has at least in the past been a self-proclaimed socialist.  But one Democrat became an Independent in July, another in October and a third (who is now running for Governor) at or just prior to the beginning, so the partisan tally was briefly 73 D, 73 R, 3 I and 1 Green.  Republicans agitated for a power sharing agreement that included giving them the House chairmanships of some of the Joint Standing Committees (which are the main committees in the Legislature, the standing committees of each chamber being committees for bills in the second reading, engrossed bills, etc.), and the day after that third Democrat left the party Speaker John Richardson was in the process of finalising such an agreement when the state Representative who left the Democratic party in October, who left it basically because it wasn't liberal enough (she had supported a tax increase instead of the Democrats' borrowing plan that triggered the early adjornment of the first regular session in March), announced in an allegedly tear-filled speach that she was returning to the party to prevent the Republicans from getting the House chairmanship of the Natural Resources Committee which dealt with issues she cared deeply about and where she did not feel Republicans shared her beliefs (not that Republicans share her beliefs in general, but anyway).  With the House no longer evenly split between the two major parties, the speaker ended his efforts on a power-sharing arrangement which, according to people on a conservative web sight I frequent, he had already issued a press release on, although I never checked for it and I imagine it would no longer be on his web site if it ever was.

The partisan tally in the state Senate is 19 D, 16 R.  The tally as of the swearing in of the new Legislature in December 2004 (and as of the Senators' party affiliations as of their election that November) was 18 D, 17 R, but one of the Republicans left the party after he was informed that he would not be recommended by the Senate Republican Leader for the committee spot he desired (and the Senate President seems to generally let the minority leader determine how the slots for his parties members, which of course aren't proportionate in number to the number of the members in the Senate for each party, are filled; there are 17 Joint Standing Committees with three members each, and a generous Senate President might give the minority party two slots instead of one on one or two committees if his/her party only has the narrowist of majorities).  This state Senator, who seemed to admit that he had given thought to leaving the party before his reelection that year, was, if I recall correctly, seated on that committee as well as given the chairmanship of another committee.  His defection came in Demember of 2004, and the Democrats have enjoyed a 19 to 16 advantage in the state Senate since then.

Yesterday was the filing deadline in Maine for Democrats, Republicans and Green Independents, and the Republicans fielded candidates for every Legislative seat.  The Democrats fielded candidates in every seat but that of the Independent I described as having a Bernie Sanders-like relationship with the Democratic leadership.  A member of the conservative website I mentioned earlier pointed this out as proof that this state Representative was a Democrat in all but name.  One of the Democrat-turned-Independent state Representatives is running for reelection as an Independent and was mentioned by one political pundit/satarist as someone the Republicans wouldn't seriously oppose when he was considering a run for the state Senate in an open Republican seat, but even though he's now just running for his own seat he has drawn a Republican as well as a Democratic challenger.  The battle for the majority in each house of the Maine Legislature looks to be a competitive one, as does the battle for the Governorship.

[Frodo]

Thought I'd add this in with regard to the Washington state legislative races this November:

Session halo: Will feisty Democrats expand majorities?

By DAVID AMMONS
AP POLITICAL WRITER

(...)

TOP PROSPECTS ...

-SENATE. Both parties have 12 seats on the ballot this year, but the Democrats are largely in safe districts. Republicans also have two retiring incumbents, Bob Oke in the 26th District and Steve Johnson in the 47th, making those open seats more vulnerable.

Both parties say the 26th is the district most likely to change hands. Democrats expect one of their rising stars, Rep. Derek Kilmer, to take the seat. Former Republican Rep. Lois McMahon is running, but anti-crime activist Jim Hines, is being courted. The district currently has two Democratic House members and will be tough for Republicans to retain.

Democrats also are targeting Johnson's open 47th seat, Sen. Luke Esser in the battleground 48th and, to a lesser extent, Sen. Brad Benson in Spokane's 6th.

Republicans acknowledge that it's a tall order to gain ground, or even to hold steady at 23 seats.

"It's going to be tough. It will be hard to hold the line," says Sen. Bill Finkbeiner, R-Kirkland.

Hewitt says flawless campaigns could keep the Oke, Johnson and Esser seats all in the GOP column and that it's possible to gain a seat. He doesn't predict winning control - a net gain of two seats - but says Republicans will challenge a number of Democratic incumbents and hope for the best. He mentions Sens. Tracey Eide in the 30th, Paull Shin in the 21st and Karen Keiser in the 33rd. Maverick Democratic Sen. Tim Sheldon could face a tough primary in the 35th.

-HOUSE. The target lists are still in flux, mostly centering around the few open seats and those held by freshmen in swing districts.

Speaker Frank Chopp, D-Seattle, says he has good candidates lined up against 10 GOP incumbents, but isn't listing them yet. Pelz sees more gains in the Seattle suburbs and Southwest Washington.

"I think we'll be flirting at hitting the 60 mark," Pelz says.

DeBolt, the Republican leader, has a multi-election strategy for regaining control. "Our main desire is to hold our incumbents and pick up a few seats," he says. "People like checks and balances."

Open House seats vacated by Kilmer and Tom are examples of top prospects, he says. Tebelius says Democratic Caucus Chairman Bill Grant of Walla Walla will be challenged in his Republican-leaning 16th District and that some suburban seats will be reclaimed.

(...)

link

[jimrtex]

The Democrats came up with challengers in a surprising number of House seats, but I don't think they are competitive.  The GOP has an 86-64 advantage, but the uncontested seats are 34-42, so where there is a contest the GOP holds 52-22 advantage.

Fair enough.  I'm familiar with the new strategy of the Democratic party (as a whole) of trying to run candidates even in safe Republican areas.  After all, Texas Democrats are running candidates in 21 out of the 22 Republican CDs and I really only give one of them a shot (we know which one that is).  The rest are seriously not competitive.

In your estimation, out of the 52 State House seats that are Republican and being contested by Democrats and the 22 seats that are Democrat and being contested by Republicans, how many of these seats are actually "potentially vulnerable", using a fairly broad definition of "potentially vulnerable".

I don't know if you are aware of this site, but it has all districts (House, Congress, Senate, and SBOE) with results for other races within the district.

Texas Legislative Council - district elections

Of the 52 GOP House seats being contested in 2006, 23 were not contested in 2004 and were carried by Bush with an average of 68% of the vote.  Many were in more rural parts of the state, where a Democrat incumbent might be able to win through ticket splitting.  Obviously if they didn't even field a candidate, there is no Democrat incumbent.   One could be potentially vulnerable. 

Of the 29 seats contested in both 2004 and 2006, 7 were closer than 60:40.  Many of the closer races were in the big 4 counties with 61 of 150 seats (Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, and Bexar).  There was not a big difference in these areas between the presidential races and other races (it was pretty much a party line vote).  In 2006, Chris Bell will head the Dem statewide ticket, and the US Senate candidate will be even less well known.  Perry will want to crank up the GOP GOTV, and Strayhorn voters will not necessarily vote for a Democrat House candidate (if they do it will because they are Democrats who aren't voting for Bell).

Picking a random district (102 in North Dallas) Cornyn-2002 ran ahead of Bush-2004 by 59% to 56%.  But this was because the Dem vote was up by 47% vs. 39% for the GOP in the presidential election.  In 2002, the Dem gubernatorial candidate Tony Sanchez spent $70 million of his own money and couldn't pull the voters out.  So it is likely that the Democrats would have a better chance in a presidential election year, especially if they don't have a candidate from New England.

The potential Dem pickups would be those races where they were within 60:40 in 2004.

15 - SE Texas (Orange, but w/o minority areas, Hardin, Newton).   Bush 68%, 2004: 55:45.

47 - Travis County (SW, Austin)   Bush 53%, 2004: Uncontested, but current holder is former Travis County sheriff, who is running for position on the Court of Criminal Appeals (Texas' supreme court for criminal cases).

56 - McLennan County (Waco).  Bush 73%, 2004: 53:47.  Democrat loser was incumbent, who may have lost seat due to Bush coattails.  The district includes Crawford.

78 - El Paso County (extreme tip).  Bush 56%, 2004: Uncontested.  Sole GOP seat in county held by long term incumbent.

93 -  Tarrant County (SE, Grand Prairie, Arlington, Mansfield).  Bush 57%, 2004: 56:44.

102 - Dallas County (NC, NE city of Dallas, Garland).  Bush 56%, 2004: 53:47.

105 - Dallas County (W, Irving).  Bush 59.  2004: 59:41.

106 - Dallas County (SW, Grand Prairie).  Bush 59, 2004: 55:45.  But GOP held seat in special election earlier this year.

107 - Dallas County (C, E city of Dallas).  Bush 57, 2004: Uncontested.

133 - Harris Couny (W, West Houston).  Bush 56, 2004: 78:22 vs. independent, but incumbent ran for open senate seat and lost.

134 - Harris County (C, Inside Loop West Houston, West U, Bellaire).  Bush 54, 2004: 55:45.

So 12 of 52?

Almost all of the 22 Dem-held seats where there is a GOP challenger appear to be reasonable targets,

3 - NE Texas (Lamar (Paris) and 5 other counties).  Bush 69, 2004: 49.8:50.2.

11 - East Texas (Cherokee, Rusk, Panola, Houston).  Bush 71, 2004: 47:53.

12 - East Texas (Angelina (Lufkin) and 3 other counties).  Bush 66, 2004: 49:51.

13 - SE Texas (5 counties east of Austin).  Bush 64, 2004: 45:55.

All 4 seats will be GOP when incumbent retires, or is hurt by redistricting, but can be held by Dem due to ticket splitting.

27 - Fort Bend County (1/3 each Anglo, Hispanic, Black).  Bush 44, 2004: uncontested.

35 - S Texas (7 counties between Corpus Christi and San Antonio).  Bush 59%, 2004: 49:51.

38 = Cameron County (SW, west of Brownsville, but may include part of Harlingen).  Bush 51%, 2004: uncontested.  Incumbent is retiring.  Dem candidate is son of state senator, who has somewhat mixed reputation.

35 or 38 would be first Hispanic GOP rep elected from Hispanic district.

45 - Central Texas (Hays (San Marcos), Kramer, Blanco).  Bush 58, 2004: 45:55.  This seat has gone back and forth.

48 - Travis County (NW, Austin).   Bush 53%, 2004: 50.1%, 49.9%, but was a Dem pickup in a special election earlier this year. 

50 - Travis County (N, Austin, Pflugerville).  Bush 51%, 2004: 49.5:50.5%, A Dem pickup then.

69 - Wichita (Wichita Falls) and Archer counties.  Bush 73%, 2004: 47:53%.

75 - El Paso County (SE, E El Paso, Socorro, Horizon City)  Bush 43%, 2004: Uncontested.

85 - South Plains (16 counties, Plainview and Colorado City are the biggest cities).   Bush 76, 2004: 41:59.  Form Speaker Pete Laney is retiring, making this a very likely GOP pickup.

111 - Dallas County (SW, SW Dallas, Duncanville)  Bush 31, 2004: Uncontested.

117 - Bexar County (W, wrap around from SW San Antonio to NW San Antonio).  Bush 55. 2004: 49:51.  Was Dem pickup in 2004.

118 - Bexar County (S&W, wrap around from S San Antonio to E suburbs).  Bush 55, 2004: 43:57.  Dem incumbent is running for Senate.

124: Bexar County (W, W San Antonio).  Bush 51%, 2004: Uncontested.

125: Bexar County (W, W, NW San Antonio)  Bush 52%, 2004: Uncontested.

137: Harris County (C, SW Houston - Gulfton, Sharpstown).  Bush 44%, 2004: 43:57.

149: Harris County (W, Far West Houston - Alief).  Bush 53%, 2004: 49.96:50.04.  This was an upset in 2004, with lots of questionable votes, but it could not be proven that they would have changed the result.

So perhaps 14 of 22 are potential switches.

So perhaps 26 in total, I'd expect 3 or 4.

[Sam Spade]

Thanks for the info, jimrtex, and also the link to the site which I wasn't aware of before.

[bgwah]

Thought I'd add this in with regard to the Washington state legislative races this November:

Session halo: Will feisty Democrats expand majorities?

link

It would be great to see the State Senate at 30-19 Democrat and 60-38 Republican.

Those numbers just look so good.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's a bit of a scandal involving the Senate Majority Leader now. Apparentely a tape came up of an incident where he addressed a bunch of pastors in January (he is a Lutheran pastor himself), where he argued to them that there was no reason for them to support a ban on gay marriage in the state constitution as he had spoken to the state Supreme Court and received assurance that they would not rule forcing Minnesota to accept gay marriage. Apparentely the Supreme Court is not ever supposed to give this sort of assurance before such a case comes up.

It'll probably blow over pretty soon though and I'd be shocked if it has any effect on the legislative elections. Mostly because the only people who seem to care so much about the gay marriage ban are the far right and far left.

[WMS]

This district will remain Republican...heck, if his successor is who I think it is going to be (a Rep contact and buddy of mine), I'm going to have a strong contact in the Legislature.

Or maybe not...I'll have to find out what happened when I talk to him later this week.

OK, in two weeks - scheduling issues. The good news is that Filing Day is next Tuesday so I'll have a better idea how local races are going to shape up...

Click the link in my signature - the blog has some good coverage.

I'll just say that the NM Reps once again amaze me in how inept their candidate recruitment efforts are.