Why did CO, MN, and NH have such strong leftward swings?

[Fwillb21]

Also, why did PA, MI, and WI have much smaller swings?

[Matty]

Colorado isn't surprising, but NH and MN somewhat are.

[sting in the rafters]

Also, why did PA, MI, and WI have much smaller swings?

Colorado, Minnesota, and New Hampshire all have 3 of the largest moderate populations in the united states, and some of the smallest proportions of the population that identify as conservative. As Biden did extremely well with moderates, it makes sense that the largest swings occurred in places such as New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Virginia, that have large portions of college-educated moderate voters.


 The big 3 Rust Belt states followed the trend nationwide of liberals voting as usual, moderates breaking hard for Biden, and conservatives breaking hard for Trump. Despite voting to the right of the nation, PA/MI/WI actually all have a slightly left-leaning ideological advantage, with each having a lower conservative% and a higher liberal% than the national average. The reason Trump came so close to winning those states despite this disadvantage is he got scorching conservative turnout.

[Tartarus Sauce]

They are some of the most heavily college-educated states in the union.

Additionally for Minnesota, not only did it have a higher than average third-party/other vote in 2016, but it also disproportionately siphoned off left-leaning voters compared to most other states.

[Devils30]

Minnesota is demographically a lot like a New England state, a big reason why the GOP remains short. Colorado has similar pockets and both have very high % of college grads.

[Hope For A New Era]

Colorado and Minnesota are basically the same thing:

- seemingly perpetually locked at about D+10
- extremely polarized
- one huge metro that dominates the state (and has powerful D trends in its suburbs)
- some very R rural areas
- some D rural areas (a rarity nowadays)
- really no major elastic area at all


New Hampshire is just weird. I'm just not questioning it. Swung 7 points left from 2016 and elected a Republican trifecta at the same time.

[Calthrina950]

Colorado and Minnesota are basically the same thing:

- seemingly perpetually locked at about D+10
- extremely polarized
- one huge metro that dominates the state (and has powerful D trends in its suburbs)
- some very R rural areas
- some D rural areas (a rarity nowadays)
- really no major elastic area at all


New Hampshire is just weird. I'm just not questioning it. Swung 7 points left from 2016 and elected a Republican trifecta at the same time.

Another similarity between Colorado and Minnesota is that they have among the highest turnout rates in the country. I believe Minnesota is actually at the top of the list.

[Hope For A New Era]

Colorado and Minnesota are basically the same thing:

- seemingly perpetually locked at about D+10
- extremely polarized
- one huge metro that dominates the state (and has powerful D trends in its suburbs)
- some very R rural areas
- some D rural areas (a rarity nowadays)
- really no major elastic area at all


New Hampshire is just weird. I'm just not questioning it. Swung 7 points left from 2016 and elected a Republican trifecta at the same time.

Another similarity between Colorado and Minnesota is that they have among the highest turnout rates in the country. I believe Minnesota is actually at the top of the list.

I knew I was forgetting something!

And those feed off of each other, also. Turnout is high because the states are polarized, and the states are polarized because turnout is high. This also makes them relatively wave-resistant.

[Calthrina950]

Colorado and Minnesota are basically the same thing:

- seemingly perpetually locked at about D+10
- extremely polarized
- one huge metro that dominates the state (and has powerful D trends in its suburbs)
- some very R rural areas
- some D rural areas (a rarity nowadays)
- really no major elastic area at all


New Hampshire is just weird. I'm just not questioning it. Swung 7 points left from 2016 and elected a Republican trifecta at the same time.

Another similarity between Colorado and Minnesota is that they have among the highest turnout rates in the country. I believe Minnesota is actually at the top of the list.

I knew I was forgetting something!

And those feed off of each other, also. Turnout is high because the states are polarized, and the states are polarized because turnout is high. This also makes them relatively wave-resistant.

Colorado's all mail-in ballot system also helps to engender higher turnout rates. I'm not familiar with Minnesota's ballot system, but I know that Minnesotans have traditionally tended to place high importance on voting and consider it a civic responsibility.

[mileslunn]

All three have percentage with college degrees above national average.  Colorado is third highest in country.  By contrast Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Florida, Iowa, and Ohio are all below national average.  Generally it seems biggest predictor on swing was education and higher the percentage who had a college degree, bigger swing in favour of Biden was.

[Annatar]

These states all have a high college white share, was the single most predictive variable of where Biden improved vs Clinton.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact we are not in a 2009 Recession we are in a Health Crisis, regardless of whom is on charge we are in this Covid crisis together and the 2017 tax cuts have failed

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Education and Race. CO, MN, and NH are highly educated. Biden would have won MI, PA, and WI by bigger margins if he reached Hillary/Obama's numbers among Minorities. I'd say a 3% win in PA, a 4-5% win in MI, and a 2% win in WI if Biden reached HRCs numbers.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Two observations distinct from the above:

(1) Minnesota was really reverting to form after an aberrant 2016 result (mostly driven by third party voters as otherwise mentioned). There were some MSP suburbs where Hillary actually got fewer votes than Obama. Suburbs were trending ideologically but due to luxury third party voting it didn't translate into votes until 2020.

(2) NH swung about as much as the rest of the New England states. Whatever explains the rest of New England will best explain NH's swings (good hypothesis I have heard is high degree attainment in addition to a lot of swings from non-college whites).

While we're lumping states together based on degree attainment, Virginia also has a large college educated population (although I'd guess it's much more racially diverse than CO and MN) and also swung about five points. I think VA/MN/CO makes a more coherent trio than NH/MN/CO.

The point above about race is a good one - CO metro areas are very white, MN rurals and suburbs are very white, NH in general is very white. This is a good contrast with VA.

[TDAS04]

Lots of socially liberal, educated whites.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Also, why did PA, MI, and WI have much smaller swings?

Colorado, Minnesota, and New Hampshire all have 3 of the largest moderate populations in the united states, and some of the smallest proportions of the population that identify as conservative. As Biden did extremely well with moderates, it makes sense that the largest swings occurred in places such as New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Virginia, that have large portions of college-educated moderate voters.

That source says HI, DE, RI, ND, and UT have even higher percentages of self-identified moderates. None of CO, MI, NH, or OR are >40% "moderate", but their "moderates" are probably more likely to be socially liberal, college-educated white people than elsewhere.

[sting in the rafters]

Also, why did PA, MI, and WI have much smaller swings?

Colorado, Minnesota, and New Hampshire all have 3 of the largest moderate populations in the united states, and some of the smallest proportions of the population that identify as conservative. As Biden did extremely well with moderates, it makes sense that the largest swings occurred in places such as New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Virginia, that have large portions of college-educated moderate voters.

That source says HI, DE, RI, ND, and UT have even higher percentages of self-identified moderates. None of CO, MI, NH, or OR are >40% "moderate", but their "moderates" are probably more likely to be socially liberal, college-educated white people than elsewhere.

The 2nd part is just as important as the first. Utah and North Dakota have well over the national average for percentage of population that is conservative, and Delaware/Rhode Island/Hawaii all rank towards the bottom in the same metric.


Indeed, education/religion are factors too. I suspect that is why Biden won moderates by 36 points in Oregon and only 10 in 'Bama.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Also, why did PA, MI, and WI have much smaller swings?

Colorado, Minnesota, and New Hampshire all have 3 of the largest moderate populations in the united states, and some of the smallest proportions of the population that identify as conservative. As Biden did extremely well with moderates, it makes sense that the largest swings occurred in places such as New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Virginia, that have large portions of college-educated moderate voters.

That source says HI, DE, RI, ND, and UT have even higher percentages of self-identified moderates. None of CO, MI, NH, or OR are >40% "moderate", but their "moderates" are probably more likely to be socially liberal, college-educated white people than elsewhere.

The 2nd part is just as important as the first. Utah and North Dakota have well over the national average for percentage of population that is conservative, and Delaware/Rhode Island/Hawaii all rank towards the bottom in the same metric.

Not sure about Delaware or Rhode Island, but I'm guessing the 40% of "moderates" in Utah are more likely to be libertarian/Never-Trumpist types, while the 45% of "moderates" in Hawai'i are more likely to be apolitical, communitarian types.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

MN was largely due to Trump not being able to turn out new voters as he did in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Ohio.

In MN, Biden gained 350K more votes than HRC.
In MN, Trump gained 160K more votes than 2016.

In WI, Biden gained 250K more votes than HRC.
In WI, Trump gained 200K more votes than 2016.

In MI, Biden gained 530K more votes than HRC.
In MI, Trump gained 380K more votes than 2016.

In OH, Biden gained 280K more votes than HRC.
In OH, Trump gained 310K more votes than 2016.

In PA, Biden gained 530K More votes than HRC.
In PA, Trump gained 400K more votes than 2016.

[King of Kensington]

It makes sense that the definition of "moderate" varies depending on the political culture of the state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Edumucation.

[Crumpets]

The post-industrial economies in those states are as incompatible with the Republican vision for the country as coal mining is for the Democratic vision.