Optimus/Firehouse Strategies: Biden +10
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  Optimus/Firehouse Strategies: Biden +10		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Optimus/Firehouse Strategies: Biden +10  (Read 878 times)
ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« on: May 22, 2020, 11:41:34 AM »
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2020, 11:54:23 AM »
Great news for wave insurance
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2020, 12:00:55 PM »
https://github.com/optimus-forecasting-and-polling/Firehouse-0ptimus-Coronavirus-Tracking/tree/master/May-21-2020

The full sample is of 899 adults with a MoE of 7.5%. With respect to 774 likely voters:

Presidential ballot:
Biden 51.5%
Trump 41.5%
Would not vote 7%

GCB:
Democratic 45%
Republican 36.1%
Other 4%
Would not vote 1.3%
Not sure 13.6%
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The Mikado
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2020, 12:28:46 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on May 22, 2020, 12:00:55 PM
https://github.com/optimus-forecasting-and-polling/Firehouse-0ptimus-Coronavirus-Tracking/tree/master/May-21-2020

The full sample is of 899 adults with a MoE of 7.5%. With respect to 774 likely voters:

Presidential ballot:
Biden 51.5%
Trump 41.5%
Would not vote 7%

GCB:
Democratic 45%
Republican 36.1%
Other 4%
Would not vote 1.3%
Not sure 13.6%

Their "Likely voter" model includes 7% of people saying that they would not vote?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2020, 12:34:53 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on May 22, 2020, 12:28:46 PM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on May 22, 2020, 12:00:55 PM
https://github.com/optimus-forecasting-and-polling/Firehouse-0ptimus-Coronavirus-Tracking/tree/master/May-21-2020

The full sample is of 899 adults with a MoE of 7.5%. With respect to 774 likely voters:

Presidential ballot:
Biden 51.5%
Trump 41.5%
Would not vote 7%

GCB:
Democratic 45%
Republican 36.1%
Other 4%
Would not vote 1.3%
Not sure 13.6%

Their "Likely voter" model includes 7% of people saying that they would not vote?

There's a much lower figure for the GCB, so perhaps they are accounting for high-propensity voters who would not vote for either Biden or Trump. There doesn't appear to be a third-party/independent option for their presidential question, so it may just mean "I would not vote for one of these two."
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Yoda
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2020, 05:06:07 PM »

Anyone know what the final Generic Congressional Ballot #'s were in '18?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2020, 05:09:42 PM »
Quote from: Yoda on May 22, 2020, 05:06:07 PM

Anyone know what the final Generic Congressional Ballot #'s were in '18?

Dems 53.4%
Reps 44.8%

Dems+8.6
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