Arizona

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump by 6 or something.

You think Arizona will swing to the right this November, 538? (Not being facetious!)

Yeah. AZ despite a good run by Democrats was still significantly to the right of the nation pretty much everywhere in 2018. Only if Biden wins by 5-7 points or so do I think he has a shot at winning the state which I obviously do not. My gut says the state will wildly buck expectations and go to Trump by a sizable margin for these reasons. I also think McSally will squeak by and win her senate race for much the same reason. Brad Parscale has also released convincing numbers here before.

Recommending not necessarily because I agree, but bc you actually took the time to respond

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If 2 or more polls come out in support of your candidate,  then your candidate most likely ahead. The only poll that supports SN2903 position on Trump winning is the R Restoration poll that has PA within the margin of error and losing badly in WI and MI. While Rassy and Fox News have Trump down by 5.

Biden hasn't campaigned yet, and he needs to in AZ and PA, key battlegrounds, when he does, the polls will match with other polls. I expect Biden to win PA

[TDAS04]

Trump winning Arizona by 6% would be like him winning the popular vote nationally.  Not likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds dont need AZ to win the EC, but Kelly can win even if Trump win the state, just like Sinema did, when Ducey won.

[Jopow]

I think Trump can win Arizona and Texas, but I think in 2024 Arizona will be blue and Texas in 2028 or 2032. It's certainly a demographic change that will not benefit Republicans.

[Flyersfan232]

Trump by 6 or something.

You think Arizona will swing to the right this November, 538? (Not being facetious!)

Yeah. AZ despite a good run by Democrats was still significantly to the right of the nation pretty much everywhere in 2018. Only if Biden wins by 5-7 points or so do I think he has a shot at winning the state which I obviously do not. My gut says the state will wildly buck expectations and go to Trump by a sizable margin for these reasons. I also think McSally will squeak by and win her senate race for much the same reason. Brad Parscale has also released convincing numbers here before.

Doug will have to wait to 2024 if that the case

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Arizona will likely be gone for the Republicans on a national within the decade. People need to realise that the decline of the GOP in the sunbelt being attributed to “moderated bolting the party” is massively overstated. Yes these people exist but Trump only got 2500 less votes in Maricopa than Romney and more than McCain. He also for example, got more votes than Romney in places like Fort Bend and Collins county.

The main drive behind this is conservative silents dying off and being replaced by more liberal younger generations and Hispanics. So a sunbelt revival is largely futile and the GOP is better off looking to the Frostbelt for new votes.

[xavier110]

Whites with college degrees are trending D, and the Hispanic population is growing.

Arizona is not a particularly educated state.  AZ actually has the lowest fraction of high school graduates of any state (only 82.1%), and the % of the population with bachelor's degrees or higher is only 28.4% (about the same as MO or MI).  

What Arizona does have is a young, booming Latino population but the White people who live there are actually a lot of older (and relatively) uneducated retirees.

Is this true? I need to do some digging, but I have lived in AZ and feel like my lived experience contradicts this. Though maybe there is just a sharp line, because AZ has a lot of trailer trash but also a LOT of wealthy, educated white professional types in both Phoenix and Tucson.

Zip codes around Paradise Valley and Scottsdale are some of the wealthiest areas in the country, and these folks are the ones who have historically always been lockstep with the GOP but hate Trump.

[Del Tachi]

Whites with college degrees are trending D, and the Hispanic population is growing.

Arizona is not a particularly educated state.  AZ actually has the lowest fraction of high school graduates of any state (only 82.1%), and the % of the population with bachelor's degrees or higher is only 28.4% (about the same as MO or MI). 

What Arizona does have is a young, booming Latino population but the White people who live there are actually a lot of older (and relatively) uneducated retirees.

Is this true? I need to do some digging, but I have lived in AZ and feel like my lived experience contradicts this. Though maybe there is just a sharp line, because AZ has a lot of trailer trash but also a LOT of wealthy, educated white professional types in both Phoenix and Tucson.

Zip codes around Paradise Valley and Scottsdale are some of the wealthiest areas in the country.

White people in Arizona are probably more educated than White people in Wisconsin, but the masses of uneducated Latino immigrants (who are driving AZ's leftward zoom) definitely hurt the state's top-line educational attainment statistics. 

[xavier110]

Whites with college degrees are trending D, and the Hispanic population is growing.

Arizona is not a particularly educated state.  AZ actually has the lowest fraction of high school graduates of any state (only 82.1%), and the % of the population with bachelor's degrees or higher is only 28.4% (about the same as MO or MI). 

What Arizona does have is a young, booming Latino population but the White people who live there are actually a lot of older (and relatively) uneducated retirees.

Is this true? I need to do some digging, but I have lived in AZ and feel like my lived experience contradicts this. Though maybe there is just a sharp line, because AZ has a lot of trailer trash but also a LOT of wealthy, educated white professional types in both Phoenix and Tucson.

Zip codes around Paradise Valley and Scottsdale are some of the wealthiest areas in the country.

White people in Arizona are probably more educated than White people in Wisconsin, but the masses of uneducated Latino immigrants (who are driving AZ's leftward zoom) definitely hurt the state's top-line educational attainment statistics. 

Yes, that's why Arizona is swinging left. I thought you meant the white population in particular lacks college degrees vs. gen population. Non-colllege Latinos are still Dem voters and couple them with well-educated white voters who are quickly trending Dem, and you have a lethal combo.

[Non Swing Voter]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

Do you know anything about politics?

Yes much more than you . Biden won't win AZ.

I suppose there might be an argument for why but can you please explain why you think Biden cannot win AZ instead of just declaring he won't?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Arizona is fools gold for Dems

You are a fool.