Redfield & Wilton: Biden +10 in WI, +9 PA, +8 MI, +4 AZ, +2 FL, +2 NC

[Sir Mohamed]

I think Biden is actually leading in said states as we speak. Doubtful it's by 10 in WI and 9 in PA, though. If the election was held today, Biden would most likely win with the 334 map, flipping the 3 Rust Belt states, FL, AZ, NC and NE-2 from 2016.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If it wasn't for Wisconsin somehow being to the left of both Michigan and Pennsylvania (which is to the left of Michigan somehow), I would say that these look like some conceivable results for now.

The idea that someone finds this "inconceivable" shows you just how far off the rails the whole "WiScOnsIn iS TiTaNiUm R nOw" meme has gone.

If it wasn't for Wisconsin somehow being to the left of both Michigan and Pennsylvania (which is to the left of Michigan somehow), I would say that these look like some conceivable results for now.

It's also possible that Wisconsin, which statistically was almost exactly in line with its other two "big three" neighbors in 2016, hasn't trended hard right the way people think.

Sure, but I just don't see Biden beating Obama's 2012 margins this year in the Badger State, especially when Trump and the GOP are going to contest it more than Romney ever did.

[pbrower2a]

Handling of COVID-19:

In your opinion, has President Trump handled the coronavirus crisis well? (yes - no - don't know/no response)

Arizona  40-51-9
North Carolina 40-49-11
Florida 41-49-10
Pennsylvania 37-53-10
Michigan 37-53-10
Wisconsin 35-55-10

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/the-story-in-six-swing-states/

Because the Plague of 2010 is the big story of the Trump Administration, performance on COVID-19, this is a good proxy for overall approval. Even the erratic foreign policy, the President's expressions of bigotry, and "the economy"  are now on the back burner due to COVID-19.  If the economy stays in the tank, then such will have an indelible link to COVID-19.