China to enact Article 23 National Security Law in Hong Kong

[jaichind]

I always felt the great Chinese political divide was over the issue "Has the Chinese civilization failed?"  The Taiping rebellion was explicitly over that issue which is why I always felt that the Taiping rebellion is the demarcation line for beginning of modern Chinese history.  How a political force views the Taiping is the best way to get their view on "Has the Chinese civilization failed?"

The battle lines over since the 1850s on the question "Has the Chinese civilization failed?"

1850s-1860s.  Ching dynasty: No.  Taiping: Yes
1890s-1910s:  Ching dynasty: No (negative view of Taiping)   KMT: Yes (positive view of Taiping)
1910s-1920s:  Beiyiang: No (negative view of Taiping)   KMT: Yes (positive view of Taiping)
1930s-1970s:  KMT: No (negative view of Taiping)   CCP: Yes (positive view of Taiping)
1990s-now:     CCP: No (negative view of Taiping)   Various Lib/Dem opposition: Yes

I think these days CCP should really stand for Chinese Civilization Party.   For me the answer to the question is clearly and any point in time I always back the political force that is negative on the Taiping which these days is the CCP when it comes to anti-Chinese civilization alternatives.  

What I find really encouraging is that since the dark days of 1950s-1960s now there is a massive Chinese majority for "No" to that key question  "Has the Chinese civilization failed?" which the CCP now needs to tap into and encourage to keep power.

[QAnonKelly]

I know Trump won’t do this but Biden really needs to put some sort of refugee/visa plank for HKers in his platform

[urutzizu]

I know Trump won’t do this but Biden really needs to put some sort of refugee/visa plank for HKers in his platform

This is what Britain has announced: it will extend the Immigration rights of BN(O) passport holders (a residual form of British nationality granted to many HK'ers pre handover without, until now, the right to Immigrate to the UK; similar to Taiwan's NWOHR) including a path to full British Citizenship. There are some 2.9 Million people with BN(O) status in Hong Kong, who are eligible for the Passport, and this is not counting many immediate Family Members (esp. post 1997 born Children) with the right to join them.

While China is quite content with the Joshua Wong's and similar problematic types emigrating, they strongly opposed this, because such a wide expansion of Immigration rights will mean a massive brain drain to the UK, especially when combined with the abolition of HK's special economic status as confirmed by President Trump today. The Structure of how/when BN(O) status was awarded, means that it's holders are more likely than not to be middle aged with higher education and professional experience (due to pre-1997 connection), and upper/middle class with english fluency (due to the exclusion of newer mainland Immigrants). In short this will be a massive boost for the UK economy, especially the City of London. And interestingly this seems to be winning the support of both the most ardent Brexiteers and Remainers. The stage for the decline of Hong Kong is now completely set.

[brucejoel99]

I know Trump won’t do this but Biden really needs to put some sort of refugee/visa plank for HKers in his platform

This. Our nation is a party to the UN's Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees, so we're already responsible under international law to take in as many as we can anyway.

[jaichind]

I know Trump won’t do this but Biden really needs to put some sort of refugee/visa plank for HKers in his platform

This is what Britain has announced: it will extend the Immigration rights of BN(O) passport holders (a residual form of British nationality granted to many HK'ers pre handover without, until now, the right to Immigrate to the UK; similar to Taiwan's NWOHR) including a path to full British Citizenship. There are some 2.9 Million people with BN(O) status in Hong Kong, who are eligible for the Passport, and this is not counting many immediate Family Members (esp. post 1997 born Children) with the right to join them.

While China is quite content with the Joshua Wong's and similar problematic types emigrating, they strongly opposed this, because such a wide expansion of Immigration rights will mean a massive brain drain to the UK, especially when combined with the abolition of HK's special economic status as confirmed by President Trump today. The Structure of how/when BN(O) status was awarded, means that it's holders are more likely than not to be middle aged with higher education and professional experience (due to pre-1997 connection), and upper/middle class with english fluency (due to the exclusion of newer mainland Immigrants). In short this will be a massive boost for the UK economy, especially the City of London. And interestingly this seems to be winning the support of both the most ardent Brexiteers and Remainers. The stage for the decline of Hong Kong is now completely set.

I thought BNO does not allow you to work in the UK.  Also my impression of what is being proposed is that the BNO allowance of visit visa free to the UK to go from 6 months to 12 months which makes this change mostly symbolic. 

ROC DPP Prez Tsai also claimed that ROC will take actions to take in HK residents.  But what seems to be coming out is way more limited in nature and pretty much a slight relaxation on the definition of political refugees.  Again a lot of noise with very little action.

As for USA act on HK special status, so far it is all talk and nothing Trump said commits the USA to any real action.

On the whole I feel the HK population at the core will still be about the money.  For them to jump the the UK US or anywhere else they will have to be allowed to work and they will have to feel that economic rate of return is higher in those other places than HK of the future.  I am sure some of them will leave depending on what the circumstances are but the size of migration will not be clear for a while.

Still I agree that on the long run HK will just converge toward just another middle sized PRC city as its unique economic position will disappear due to changes in its status as well as its relative economic decline vis-a-vis the rest of the Pearl River Delta region.

[brucejoel99]

I know Trump won’t do this but Biden really needs to put some sort of refugee/visa plank for HKers in his platform

This is what Britain has announced: it will extend the Immigration rights of BN(O) passport holders (a residual form of British nationality granted to many HK'ers pre handover without, until now, the right to Immigrate to the UK; similar to Taiwan's NWOHR) including a path to full British Citizenship. There are some 2.9 Million people with BN(O) status in Hong Kong, who are eligible for the Passport, and this is not counting many immediate Family Members (esp. post 1997 born Children) with the right to join them.

While China is quite content with the Joshua Wong's and similar problematic types emigrating, they strongly opposed this, because such a wide expansion of Immigration rights will mean a massive brain drain to the UK, especially when combined with the abolition of HK's special economic status as confirmed by President Trump today. The Structure of how/when BN(O) status was awarded, means that it's holders are more likely than not to be middle aged with higher education and professional experience (due to pre-1997 connection), and upper/middle class with english fluency (due to the exclusion of newer mainland Immigrants). In short this will be a massive boost for the UK economy, especially the City of London. And interestingly this seems to be winning the support of both the most ardent Brexiteers and Remainers. The stage for the decline of Hong Kong is now completely set.

I thought BNO does not allow you to work in the UK.  Also my impression of what is being proposed is that the BNO allowance of visit visa free to the UK to go from 6 months to 12 months which makes this change mostly symbolic. 

BN(O) passport holders can visit the UK for up to 6 months & can't work/apply for citizenship under the current rules, yes, but Raab's announcement from yesterday was that the 6-month limit would be removed & BN(O) passport holders will be allowed to come to the UK & to apply to work & study for extendable periods of 12 months.

[QAnonKelly]

I know Trump won’t do this but Biden really needs to put some sort of refugee/visa plank for HKers in his platform

This is what Britain has announced: it will extend the Immigration rights of BN(O) passport holders (a residual form of British nationality granted to many HK'ers pre handover without, until now, the right to Immigrate to the UK; similar to Taiwan's NWOHR) including a path to full British Citizenship. There are some 2.9 Million people with BN(O) status in Hong Kong, who are eligible for the Passport, and this is not counting many immediate Family Members (esp. post 1997 born Children) with the right to join them.

While China is quite content with the Joshua Wong's and similar problematic types emigrating, they strongly opposed this, because such a wide expansion of Immigration rights will mean a massive brain drain to the UK, especially when combined with the abolition of HK's special economic status as confirmed by President Trump today. The Structure of how/when BN(O) status was awarded, means that it's holders are more likely than not to be middle aged with higher education and professional experience (due to pre-1997 connection), and upper/middle class with english fluency (due to the exclusion of newer mainland Immigrants). In short this will be a massive boost for the UK economy, especially the City of London. And interestingly this seems to be winning the support of both the most ardent Brexiteers and Remainers. The stage for the decline of Hong Kong is now completely set.

I thought BNO does not allow you to work in the UK.  Also my impression of what is being proposed is that the BNO allowance of visit visa free to the UK to go from 6 months to 12 months which makes this change mostly symbolic. 

ROC DPP Prez Tsai also claimed that ROC will take actions to take in HK residents.  But what seems to be coming out is way more limited in nature and pretty much a slight relaxation on the definition of political refugees.  Again a lot of noise with very little action.

As for USA act on HK special status, so far it is all talk and nothing Trump said commits the USA to any real action.

On the whole I feel the HK population at the core will still be about the money.  For them to jump the the UK US or anywhere else they will have to be allowed to work and they will have to feel that economic rate of return is higher in those other places than HK of the future.  I am sure some of them will leave depending on what the circumstances are but the size of migration will not be clear for a while.

Still I agree that on the long run HK will just converge toward just another middle sized PRC city as its unique economic position will disappear due to changes in its status as well as its relative economic decline vis-a-vis the rest of the Pearl River Delta region.

BNO lets you stay without working for six months now. The changes would allow for people to renew annually and eventually become full citizens. I watched the press conference and got the impression they’re still working out the finer details.

[jaichind]

 
BNO lets you stay without working for six months now. The changes would allow for people to renew annually and eventually become full citizens. I watched the press conference and got the impression they’re still working out the finer details.

Thanks for clarifying . Question is in the meantime will they be allowed to work during this path to citizenship.  If not then this is not very useful.  So I guess we cannot know until more details comes out so the net impact will be unknown.    If a lot of talent does move out of HK that will also impact a lot of international firms plans to keep a significant part of their APAC workforce in HK out of HK to places with more talent (Singapore ?) which in turn will create more economic incentive for people to move out.  With all these details to be worked out and implemented,  I suspect in the short run nothing changes and we will know the economic impact only a few years from now.

[QAnonKelly]

 
BNO lets you stay without working for six months now. The changes would allow for people to renew annually and eventually become full citizens. I watched the press conference and got the impression they’re still working out the finer details.

Thanks for clarifying . Question is in the meantime will they be allowed to work during this path to citizenship.  If not then this is not very useful.  So I guess we cannot know until more details comes out so the net impact will be unknown.    If a lot of talent does move out of HK that will also impact a lot of international firms plans to keep a significant part of their APAC workforce in HK out of HK to places with more talent (Singapore ?) which in turn will create more economic incentive for people to move out.  With all these details to be worked out and implemented,  I suspect in the short run nothing changes and we will know the economic impact only a few years from now.

Yeah, they’ll be able to work

[jaichind]

Latest poll by 明報 (Ming Pao) which has a slight pro-Democratic Bloc tilt.  My main problem with the 明報 (Ming Pao) polls is that they are only conducted in Cantonese which will be biased it in favor of the pro-Democratic bloc.  Still the bias should not be that large.

Support/Oppose the latest Security law: 24.3/64.0


Political bloc identification:

Pan-Localism: 12.7%
Pan-Democratic Radical: 4.6%
Pan-Democratic Moderate: 34.6%   
Moderate: 15.7%
Pan-Establishment: 6.3%
Economic Right: 1.8%
Pro-Beijing: 4.3%

The Moderates de facto are moderate Pan-Establishment so the Anti-Establishment/Pan-Establishment breakdown are:  51.9%/28.1%.  Historically the Pan-Democratic/Pan-Establishment vote shares tend to be 60/40 until it became 55/45 in the early 2010s.  The latest 2019 local elections it shifted back to 58/42.

明報 (Ming Pao) reports that the relative sizes of each political bloc has not shifted but the Pan-Democratic Moderate bloc has become more radicalized due to the latest events.  It also points out some of the Pan-Establishment supporters also disapprove of the most recent events.

As for approval in institutions of (1) Central Government implementation of One Country Two systesms  (2) HKR government,  (3) Central Government, (4) Police, (5) Faith in the future on a scale of 0 to 10



The latest events only made the numbers slightly worse than March is still somewhat above the low point of Oct 2019 right before the 2019 local elections.

[jaichind]

Given the latest USA moves on HK turns out to be nothing-bergers there seems to be a surge of capital into HK
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/hong-kong-dollar-sees-inflow-surge-staring-down-capital-flight

In the meantime the HK protesters seems to be running out of cash as victory seems further and further away
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-04/hong-kong-s-protest-movement-is-running-out-of-cash

What is also interesting is the HK protest community seems to be divided on how to view the USA protests.  Most are keeping silent and along the way exposing their hypocrisy but a vocal minority does seems to come out to back the USA protests and linking the protest cause with their own.

[jaichind]

Pro-PRC 文匯報 (Wen Wei Po) decided to interview key Pan-Democratic bloc and Pan-Localism Bloc MLAs to get their view on the USA protests.  Of course they did this on purpose because they know it will show them up.   They asked the key MLAs 2 questions

1. Do you support the USA cracking down on the violent protests ?
2. Do you support the USA protests against police violence ?

Other 1 MLA that supported the protests everyone else was "No comment."



Comments these MLA gave included:

"I will know more and will have a view once we go on a face finding trip to USA"
"I am late for a meeting"
"I am not in USA so it is hard for me to say"
"I hope both sides work this out"
"I hope the violence ends"
"The USA government has to confront this problem of violent protests"
"This is USA, it has nothing to do with me"

Of course these same MLAs wanted international support even though in their own words if you flip USA and HK "these international supporters does not live in HK so why should they have an opinion"

[jaichind]

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/hong-kong-pro-democracy-unions-seek-support-for-general-strike

"Hong Kong Pro-Democracy Unions Won’t Call for General Strike"

Pro-Democratic bloc Hong Kong labor unions and students held a "referendum" over the weekend hoping to get 60K signatures for a general strike to protest the new security law.   Only about 9K Union and around 10K student in person or electronic votes were cast.

The anti-government "referendum" was a total flop at the weekend. Protesters set up stalls in multiple locations, but you could see pretty much everyone just walking past them.

If is funny that this new security law is much more far reaching than the extradition law last year yet it seems protest fatigue is finally settling in.  The protest movement should have taken the win last summer when the new extradition law was withdrawn.  It seems they overplayed their hand and the Beijing regime played hardball and now the protesters are themselves folding.   

Since late May the HK stock market has actually out-performed Tokyo, Taipei and Seoul so it seems smart money also is pricing in the new law and looking past it.