MI (Change Research) Biden +3
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Author Topic: MI (Change Research) Biden +3  (Read 3275 times)
Ferguson97
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« Reply #25 on: May 26, 2020, 04:47:56 PM »

Change is trash, but this is quite interesting - Biden's margins grow a good amount when you add Klobuchar, or especially Harris into the mix as VP:

H2H:

Biden 49 - Trump 46

Biden/Whitmer 49 - Trump/Pence 47

Biden/Abrams 46 - Trump/Pence 48

Biden/Klobuchar 50 - Trump/Pence 45

Bden/Warren 47 - Trump/Pence 47

Biden/Harris 51 - Trump/Pence 43


Whitmer doing so poorly in her home state is surprising. It looks like she would not be a good VP pick. Harris doing so well is also surprising.

That said, I doubt the VP choice matters as much as this poll suggests it does.
No it's not Whitmer is not popular here.

She's popular according to these polls. https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/20/republican-men-views-coronavirus/5227671002/
That poll is not credible. No way in hell her disapproval is not higher than 40.Trust me I live here she is not popular. Everyone wants the gyms open. Also if you compare her #s to Cuomo, Dewine or almost any other governor they are lower. She will not be re-elected. 1 termer

People in YOUR conservative circle don't like her.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: May 27, 2020, 11:54:44 AM »

This is not a reliable pollster...nothing should be taken seriously.
blah blah. Same crap you guys said in 16. Trump will win MI. Democrats overconfidence is insane right now.

*Our* overconfidence is insane?  Take a look in the mirror.

Biden leads every one of the Michigan polls in the RCP database.  Their average is Biden +5.5.  But you know more than every pollster, right?
90% percent of this forum including you boasts daily about how Trump's chance are not great when that is just factually inaccurate.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: May 27, 2020, 11:56:13 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2020, 01:28:23 PM by SN2903 »

Change is trash, but this is quite interesting - Biden's margins grow a good amount when you add Klobuchar, or especially Harris into the mix as VP:

H2H:

Biden 49 - Trump 46

Biden/Whitmer 49 - Trump/Pence 47

Biden/Abrams 46 - Trump/Pence 48

Biden/Klobuchar 50 - Trump/Pence 45

Bden/Warren 47 - Trump/Pence 47

Biden/Harris 51 - Trump/Pence 43


Whitmer doing so poorly in her home state is surprising. It looks like she would not be a good VP pick. Harris doing so well is also surprising.

That said, I doubt the VP choice matters as much as this poll suggests it does.
No it's not Whitmer is not popular here.

She's popular according to these polls. https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/05/20/republican-men-views-coronavirus/5227671002/
That poll is not credible. No way in hell her disapproval is not higher than 40.Trust me I live here she is not popular. Everyone wants the gyms open. Also if you compare her #s to Cuomo, Dewine or almost any other governor they are lower. She will not be re-elected. 1 termer

People in YOUR conservative circle don't like her.
I have friends who are more independent that like Trump. It's not just hardcore Repubs that like him. He wouldn't be doing so well with WWC if it was just Republicans. Those same friends are also do not like Whitmer. I agree with 2016 her election was a fluke. MI is trending R.
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peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: May 27, 2020, 12:00:39 PM »

@SN unless you are friends with half of the state of Michigan nobody here cares what your friends think about Gretchen Whitmer.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #29 on: May 27, 2020, 01:29:01 PM »

@SN unless you are friends with half of the state of Michigan nobody here cares what your friends think about Gretchen Whitmer.
Think I understand my home state better than you.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: May 27, 2020, 01:45:05 PM »

@SN unless you are friends with half of the state of Michigan nobody here cares what your friends think about Gretchen Whitmer.
Think I understand my home state better than you.

You're missing my point entirely but even still I have deep family ties to Michigan and the Detroit area.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #31 on: May 27, 2020, 03:26:42 PM »

I have friends who are more independent that like Trump. It's not just hardcore Repubs that like him. He wouldn't be doing so well with WWC if it was just Republicans. Those same friends are also do not like Whitmer. I agree with 2016 her election was a fluke. MI is trending R.

It wouldn't just be Whitmer's election that's a fluke then, it'd be the entire 2018 election in Michigan.   MI Dems also won the popular votes for both State Senate and State House, along with all statewide elections.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #32 on: May 27, 2020, 04:05:41 PM »

I have friends who are more independent that like Trump. It's not just hardcore Repubs that like him. He wouldn't be doing so well with WWC if it was just Republicans. Those same friends are also do not like Whitmer. I agree with 2016 her election was a fluke. MI is trending R.

It wouldn't just be Whitmer's election that's a fluke then, it'd be the entire 2018 election in Michigan.   MI Dems also won the popular votes for both State Senate and State House, along with all statewide elections.
2018 was a fluke.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #33 on: May 27, 2020, 04:12:42 PM »

I have friends who are more independent that like Trump. It's not just hardcore Repubs that like him. He wouldn't be doing so well with WWC if it was just Republicans. Those same friends are also do not like Whitmer. I agree with 2016 her election was a fluke. MI is trending R.

It wouldn't just be Whitmer's election that's a fluke then, it'd be the entire 2018 election in Michigan.   MI Dems also won the popular votes for both State Senate and State House, along with all statewide elections.
2018 was a fluke.

What are you basing this on? Michigan has been Democratic for YEARS up until 2016.

If anything, 2016 was a fluke.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #34 on: May 27, 2020, 04:43:30 PM »

I have friends who are more independent that like Trump. It's not just hardcore Repubs that like him. He wouldn't be doing so well with WWC if it was just Republicans. Those same friends are also do not like Whitmer. I agree with 2016 her election was a fluke. MI is trending R.

It wouldn't just be Whitmer's election that's a fluke then, it'd be the entire 2018 election in Michigan.   MI Dems also won the popular votes for both State Senate and State House, along with all statewide elections.
2018 was a fluke.

What are you basing this on? Michigan has been Democratic for YEARS up until 2016.

If anything, 2016 was a fluke.

If you ignore Democrats winning the presidential race all but once since 1992, holding both Senate seats since 2000, winning three of the last five gubernatorial races, winning the House of Representatives popular vote 10 of the last 14 elections, winning the State Senate popular vote in 2 of the last 4 races, AND winning the State House popular vote in 6 of the last 7 elections, then OBVIOUSLY 2018 was a fluke.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #35 on: May 27, 2020, 11:08:05 PM »

Can you guys please stop responding to SN2903? A lot of us have him on mute for a reason.
It's easier to stay in the Biden hype bubble that deal with reality that the Democratic party is a massive failure at every level. Majority of this forum is saying things no differently than 2016. We have a recession and Trump is barely behind when things pick up with the opening of the country Biden is finished politically.
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SN2903
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #36 on: May 27, 2020, 11:08:51 PM »

I have friends who are more independent that like Trump. It's not just hardcore Repubs that like him. He wouldn't be doing so well with WWC if it was just Republicans. Those same friends are also do not like Whitmer. I agree with 2016 her election was a fluke. MI is trending R.

It wouldn't just be Whitmer's election that's a fluke then, it'd be the entire 2018 election in Michigan.   MI Dems also won the popular votes for both State Senate and State House, along with all statewide elections.
2018 was a fluke.

What are you basing this on? Michigan has been Democratic for YEARS up until 2016.

If anything, 2016 was a fluke.
Snyder won governor in 2010 and 2014.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #37 on: May 28, 2020, 06:39:56 PM »

I have friends who are more independent that like Trump. It's not just hardcore Repubs that like him. He wouldn't be doing so well with WWC if it was just Republicans. Those same friends are also do not like Whitmer. I agree with 2016 her election was a fluke. MI is trending R.

It wouldn't just be Whitmer's election that's a fluke then, it'd be the entire 2018 election in Michigan.   MI Dems also won the popular votes for both State Senate and State House, along with all statewide elections.
2018 was a fluke.

What are you basing this on? Michigan has been Democratic for YEARS up until 2016.

If anything, 2016 was a fluke.
Snyder won governor in 2010 and 2014.

Major Republican wave years.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #38 on: May 28, 2020, 07:32:03 PM »

I have friends who are more independent that like Trump. It's not just hardcore Repubs that like him. He wouldn't be doing so well with WWC if it was just Republicans. Those same friends are also do not like Whitmer. I agree with 2016 her election was a fluke. MI is trending R.

It wouldn't just be Whitmer's election that's a fluke then, it'd be the entire 2018 election in Michigan.   MI Dems also won the popular votes for both State Senate and State House, along with all statewide elections.
2018 was a fluke.

What are you basing this on? Michigan has been Democratic for YEARS up until 2016.

If anything, 2016 was a fluke.
Snyder won governor in 2010 and 2014.

Major Republican wave years.

Also, state elections work differently than federal elections.

New Jersey elected a Republican governor in 2009 and 2013.

Louisiana elected a Democratic governor in 2015 and 2019.

Neither of those states are going to flip in a presidential election.
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