Iowa D Primary: PPP
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: May 13, 2020, 10:14:21 AM »

https://iowastartingline.com/2020/05/12/ia-sen-greenfield-leads-primary-field-new-poll-show/

The poll, which contacted 849 voters from May 5-6 (Mauro's since put TV ads up), was conducted for the Gerald Huffman for Humanity Fund (a group which supports UBI).

Greenfield 43%
Franken 12%
Graham 4%
Mauro 4%
Undecided 36%

IIRC, the '35% to avoid a runoff' threshold remains.
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SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2020, 10:26:06 AM »

Yeah, Greenfield's going to win this primary.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2020, 12:49:22 PM »

It's a shame that the DCCC and DSCC sometimes insist on supporting bad candidates. This seat would be a tall order with any candidate, but Franken would be a better candidate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2020, 03:22:41 PM »

It's a shame that the DCCC and DSCC sometimes insist on supporting bad candidates. This seat would be a tall order with any candidate, but Franken would be a better candidate.

Ernst is tied against Greenfield in the latest poll, dont be too sure
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woodley park
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2020, 09:44:12 PM »

I still don't understand why folks think Iowa is a strong Republican state post 2016. Trump won it by fewer votes than Obama did when he won it in 2012 and the Dems won 3 out of the 4 House seats in 2018. Meanwhile, the state has been clobbered first by the trade war and now by COVID. And the 2020 electorate should look more like 2018 and 2012, instead of 2014 and 2016. Both the Senate and POTUS race should be considered toss-up.
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swf541
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« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2020, 09:15:46 PM »

Whats wrong with Greenfield?
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2020, 09:22:29 PM »

Something something being a Des Moines businesswoman is toxic to the #populists Purple heart
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2020, 09:31:37 PM »
« Edited: May 18, 2020, 09:35:58 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Something something being a Des Moines businesswoman is toxic to the #populists Purple heart

That is a fair chunk of it; Harkin won most of victories by playing to populism, and even ran for the Populist Party's presidential nomination in '92. Greenfield doesn't strike me as a bad candidate, but I'm not convinced she's a particularly good one, and part of that is completely out of her control (the almost inevitable Republican campaign against the Des Moines Liberal Elite). That said, she did live on a farm in her childhood and is making the occasional nod to that, so is more aware than some previous candidates of the sort of pandering which is probably necessary in a state this rural.

Beyond all that, her biggest weakness seems to be campaigning as generic D. She is not embracing especially populist rhetoric, but could get going when and if she has the nomination. Running as a moderate in IA is all well and good, but it's not particularly effective without significant compromise on a few relevant wedge issues, and I haven't noticed any policy concessions of hers on e.g. guns.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2020, 09:44:19 PM »

That is a fair chunk of it; Harkin won most of victories by playing to populism, and even ran for the Populist Party's presidential nomination in '92.

Why did the People's Party/Populists lose Montana in 1892 even as they won KS (!), ND, CO (!), NV, and ID? Cry
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2020, 12:34:27 AM »

I know MT Treasurer think Ernst is unbeatable,  she isnt and the last PPP poll shows she isnt 43 to 42 when Trump is lost nationally 6 to 10 pts. Grassley won in 2016 due to facing Patty Judge. Greenfield isnt Patty Judge
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2020, 01:28:59 PM »

Something something being a Des Moines businesswoman is toxic to the #populists Purple heart

That is a fair chunk of it; Harkin won most of victories by playing to populism, and even ran for the Populist Party's presidential nomination in '92. Greenfield doesn't strike me as a bad candidate, but I'm not convinced she's a particularly good one, and part of that is completely out of her control (the almost inevitable Republican campaign against the Des Moines Liberal Elite). That said, she did live on a farm in her childhood and is making the occasional nod to that, so is more aware than some previous candidates of the sort of pandering which is probably necessary in a state this rural.

Beyond all that, her biggest weakness seems to be campaigning as generic D. She is not embracing especially populist rhetoric, but could get going when and if she has the nomination. Running as a moderate in IA is all well and good, but it's not particularly effective without significant compromise on a few relevant wedge issues, and I haven't noticed any policy concessions of hers on e.g. guns.

Nah, Tom Harkin won by playing to the Agribusiness corporate elites running in a very different political landscape...well...that and wasting taxpayer dollars on all sorts of random projects for Iowa.  He was a pretty generic inoffensive, low energy 1990s center-left Democrat.  
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Badger
badger
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2020, 07:27:16 PM »

Something something being a Des Moines businesswoman is toxic to the #populists Purple heart

That is a fair chunk of it; Harkin won most of victories by playing to populism, and even ran for the Populist Party's presidential nomination in '92. Greenfield doesn't strike me as a bad candidate, but I'm not convinced she's a particularly good one, and part of that is completely out of her control (the almost inevitable Republican campaign against the Des Moines Liberal Elite). That said, she did live on a farm in her childhood and is making the occasional nod to that, so is more aware than some previous candidates of the sort of pandering which is probably necessary in a state this rural.

Beyond all that, her biggest weakness seems to be campaigning as generic D. She is not embracing especially populist rhetoric, but could get going when and if she has the nomination. Running as a moderate in IA is all well and good, but it's not particularly effective without significant compromise on a few relevant wedge issues, and I haven't noticed any policy concessions of hers on e.g. guns.

Nah, Tom Harkin won by playing to the Agribusiness corporate elites running in a very different political landscape...well...that and wasting taxpayer dollars on all sorts of random projects for Iowa.  He was a pretty generic inoffensive, low energy 1990s center-left Democrat.  

He was actually considered decidedly the left wing of the party for most of his career. He just did a good job fighting for agriculture enough to keep both of Farmer's and big agribusiness on his side.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2020, 02:14:00 PM »

Something something being a Des Moines businesswoman is toxic to the #populists Purple heart

That is a fair chunk of it; Harkin won most of victories by playing to populism, and even ran for the Populist Party's presidential nomination in '92. Greenfield doesn't strike me as a bad candidate, but I'm not convinced she's a particularly good one, and part of that is completely out of her control (the almost inevitable Republican campaign against the Des Moines Liberal Elite). That said, she did live on a farm in her childhood and is making the occasional nod to that, so is more aware than some previous candidates of the sort of pandering which is probably necessary in a state this rural.

Beyond all that, her biggest weakness seems to be campaigning as generic D. She is not embracing especially populist rhetoric, but could get going when and if she has the nomination. Running as a moderate in IA is all well and good, but it's not particularly effective without significant compromise on a few relevant wedge issues, and I haven't noticed any policy concessions of hers on e.g. guns.

Nah, Tom Harkin won by playing to the Agribusiness corporate elites running in a very different political landscape...well...that and wasting taxpayer dollars on all sorts of random projects for Iowa.  He was a pretty generic inoffensive, low energy 1990s center-left Democrat.  

He was actually considered decidedly the left wing of the party for most of his career. He just did a good job fighting for agriculture enough to keep both of Farmer's and big agribusiness on his side.

Yeah, but he'd be considered center-left by today's standards and was as bland as they come.  In any case, my point was that Harkin didn't win by running #Populist campaigns.
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