RestorationPac (R): Biden +8% in MI, +9% in WI; Trump +4% in PA

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1263454121186807819

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1263453632449712128

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1263454638776422401

[Bidenworth2020]

This poll has Biden down 4 in PA, lol. I wouldn't put much stock in these numbers either way though, they look trashy.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

I’d believe this if it didn’t have Pennsylvania voting 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Well, Ds do have FL and AZ and GA to fall back on if PA votes R

[Annatar]

Their sample for PA is to republican, their sample is R+6.5 in terms of party ID, in the 2016 exit polls PA was D+3 in terms of party ID.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"One of these things is not like the other..."

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The Sunbelt is much more D than in 2016, if Ds lose a MW state, GA, FL and AZ is the fallback option

[morgieb]

If Trump really does do 12-13 points in Pennsylvania than Michigan and Wisconsin I'd streak down George St on 7 November.

[wbrocks67]

Their sample for PA is to republican, their sample is R+6.5 in terms of party ID, in the 2016 exit polls PA was D+3 in terms of party ID.

Not to mention, PA is D+8 by party registration in general.

Michigan is the only one here that looks believable, based on recent polls.

[wbrocks67]

Those senate #s are UGLY for James in MI.

[BlueSwan]

PA is almost certainly leaning more towards Biden than Wisconsin. This looks very fishy.

[Pollster]

This is almost certainly not what PA looks like. They are modeling turnout at 43 R/37 D/20 I. In 2016 it was 42 D/39 R/20 I.

Using the crosstabs from their website for the vote breakdowns and the 2016 partisan turnout as a guide, that would put PA at 52/45 Biden according to this poll.

[Pollster]

Wisconsin, likewise, looks a little funky with party ID. Was 35 D/34 R/30 I in 2016, is 33 R/32 D/35 I here.

Using their crosstabs, adjusted party ID puts this poll at 50/40 Biden (with undecideds clearly favoring Trump, who is trailing Biden 50/28 among independents).

Using the same technique for Michigan (I don't even know how they came up with the ridiculous party ID model for this one), poll comes to 54/37(!), again with Trump having ample ground to gain among independents.

Given that the overwhelming majority of independents are partisan leaners, we are looking at a potential situation in which right-leaning independents are not as energized to turn out as the core Republican base.

[redjohn]

Uhhh Wisconsin is absolutely not voting 13 points to the left of PA in any scenario. Baldwin as VP would probably result in WI voting to the left of PA, but not a chance it would be by 13 points.

[ProudModerate2]

Uhhh Wisconsin is absolutely not voting 13 points to the left of PA in any scenario.

Agree.
Very strange.

[pbrower2a]

Those senate #s are UGLY for James in MI.

I've seen Peters. He holds up better than I expected.

Trump may have been riling the Tea Party types lately and getting some short-term gains from it... with everyone else he seems to be a laughing-stock.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

PA is gonna be hard to turn back D than people think, but in the end it should go to Biden


If any state stays R, its WI, that could comeback inconclusive

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If you adjust for party ID in Pennsylvania, Biden should be up by 5

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Atlas would probably eat this up if the PA and WI numbers were switched, lol. Either way, pretty junky.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This doesn't add up.

[Ferguson97]

Biden doing better in Wisconsin than PA? Yeah right.

[Existing in the context]

I think the GOP just wanted to say they're ahead of "Scranton Joe" in PA.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is ahead of Trump in PA

[libertpaulian]

Trump is screwed if these are the best numbers an R-biased pollster can produce.

[Tender Branson]

PA will vote for Biden by 6-12%.