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October 26, 2020, 07:06:35 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2020 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  WA-SurveyUSA: Gov. Inslee (D) up BIG
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Author Topic: WA-SurveyUSA: Gov. Inslee (D) up BIG  (Read 468 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 21, 2020, 03:29:16 AM »

Primary:

Quote
Among likely primary voters, incumbent Jay Inslee, the only Democrat on the ballot, gets 50% of the vote. 6 Republicans who oppose Inslee in the primary combine for only 27% of the vote, which, should the numbers hold, hands whichever of the Republicans who finishes 2nd behind Inslee in the Primary a grueling uphill climb in the Fall. Today, none of the 6 Republicans has a meaningful advantage over the others. Tim Eyman at 8% is nominally 2 points ahead of Phil Fortunato and Joshua Freed, who in turn are nominally 2 points ahead of Loren Culp. Statistically, any 1 of those 4 may have a slight advantage over the others, given the normal cautions that come with all survey estimates.

In the contest for Attorney General, incumbent Democrat Bob Ferguson is also certain to advance from the primary to the general, but which of 3 Republicans Ferguson will face in November is uncertain. At this hour, Republican challengers Matt Larkin and Brett Rogers are tied at 8%, nominally 4 points in front of Republican Mike Vaska. With 32% of likely primary voters undecided, any order of Republican finish is possible.

Washington State's Lieutenant Governor Cyrus Habib is not seeking re-election. 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans are on the primary ballot, fighting to be 1 of the Top 2 finishers. At this hour, Democrat Denny Heck may or may not have a slight advantage, with 15% of the vote, ever-so-slightly ahead of Republican Joseph Brumbles and Democrat Steve Hobbs, who tie at 10%. Republican Ann Davison Sattler at 9% effectively runs even with Brumbles and Hobbs. Democrat Marko Liias, at 6%, cannot be counted out, given that fully half of likely primary voters tell SurveyUSA they are still getting to know the candidates.

Quote
About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 state of Washington adults 05/16/20 through 05/19/20. Of the adults, 556 are registered to vote. Of the registered, SurveyUSA identified 517 as likely to vote in the state's 08/04/20 primary. In Washington State, the Top 2 finishers in the primary advance to the general election, even if both of the Top 2 finishers happen to be from the same political party. This research was conducted online. The sample of respondents was weighted to gender, age and race, as necessary, to make certain that the data is representative of the state.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f8e39a8b-0092-47bd-86a4-0bc1fc8e4a92

Head-to-Head matchups:

56% Jay Inslee (D)
34% Phil Fortunato (R)

56% Jay Inslee (D)
31% Loren Culp (R)

57% Jay Inslee (D)
30% Joshua Freed (R)

60% Jay Inslee (D)
31% Tim Eyman (R)

Quote
About: SurveyUSA interviewed 650 state of Washington adults 05/16/20 through 05/19/20. Of the adults, 556 are registered to vote; of those registered, 530 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote and were asked about the November head-to-head match-ups.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eb9c7a11-4c4c-469e-aad9-6fb9ce040a5b

Inslee Approval:

61-29

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=10aa7994-1bcf-4723-b77b-7cbb75caf7bc
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2020, 01:16:05 PM »

Flawless beautiful KING
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2020, 01:20:00 PM »

Impressive. That might put Herrera-Beutler's seat in play.

It would also be a great pleasure to see WA State Treasurer Duane Davidson (R) get locked out of the Top2 as sweet payback for stealing his seat in 2016.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2020, 02:32:56 PM »

New Poll: Washington Governor by Survey USA on 2020-05-19

Summary: D: 60%, R: 31%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2020, 08:59:45 PM »

I remember when Greedo was telling me that this would be competitive
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