CA-SUSA: Biden +28

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4b9bd0e5-3f07-4da9-b86f-370c0255240e

Biden 58
Trump 30
Other 5

Seems like California will "trend" R in 2020.  Trump may have hit the Republican floor in the state in 2016.

[Bidenworth2020]

California polls always underestimate democrats. Solid result for Biden.

[Lief 🗽]

California polls always underestimate democrats. Solid result for Biden.

Hmm, true, SUSA's last poll in California in 2016 was only Clinton +21.

[SevenEleven]

Trump may have hit the Republican floor in the state in 2016.

Did you see how many districts flipped in 2018? The Republican floor here is a bottomless pit. Luckily for Republicans, gravity is "only a theory".

[Bidenworth2020]

California polls always underestimate democrats. Solid result for Biden.

Hmm, true, SUSA's last poll in California in 2016 was only Clinton +21.

Just look at the 2018 CA Gov polls. Had a few people convinced it would be within single digits.

[SevenEleven]

950 California adults

Junk poll.

[MT Treasurer]

California polls always underestimate democrats. Solid result for Biden.

Yeah, there’s still plenty of room for Democratic gains in CA. It might "trend" slightly Republican (and the overreactions to that would be pretty amusing), but I’d be very surprised if Biden's margin of victory didn’t exceed Clinton's.

[cvparty]

i don’t think trump hit the floor, but biden doesn’t have as much room here compared to other states to gain relative to clinton. if he falls flat with latino outreach this is one of the states that would reflect that the most

[Tender Branson]

950 California adults

Junk poll.

Actually 537 likely voters for the GE question.

[President Johnson]

Trump at 30% looks about right. Other than that, California polls always underestimate Democrats. I think Joe Biden will outperform Hillary and Gavin Newsom from 2018. He'll most likely end up between 63% and 66%. Anyway, freedom state.

[Gracile]

Seems like California will "trend" R in 2020.  Trump may have hit the Republican floor in the state in 2016.

You shouldn't use polling data as an indicator of a state hitting "the Republican floor" (especially given CA polling's tendency to underestimate Democrats) - that's pretty poor analysis. The 2018 House elections showed that they still have some room to fall, and even if CA does trend Republican it will likely be more indicative of a large swing in the NPV than any meaningful gains by the GOP in the state.

[I’m not Stu]

If it trends Republican, it likely means the national environment is great for Democrats. Why even bother polling a state Biden is guaranteed to win?

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: California President by Survey USA on 2020-05-19

Summary: D: 58%, R: 30%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[kph14]

Every time I see a CA poll from Survey USA I add 10 points to the Democrat's margin

In 2018 they had Newsom +15 in their last poll (he won by 24)
In 2016 they had Clinton +21 in their last poll (she won by 30)

[kph14]

This poll also had some incredibly odd crosstabs

18-34: Biden 55-26 (+29)
35-49: Biden 51-32 (+19)
50-64: Biden 52-37 (+15)
65+: Biden 70-24 (+46) !!!

[Roblox]

California and other western states are basically the democratic version of Appalachia when it comes to over performing polls.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This poll also had some incredibly odd crosstabs

65+: Biden 70-24 (+46) !!!

Those old codgers love uncle Joe.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting.  What I think is going on:

This poll also had some incredibly odd crosstabs

18-34: Biden 55-26 (+29) Lower enthusiasm for Biden, but committed to the left in general
35-49: Biden 51-32 (+19) Younger end: see 18-34, Upper end: see 50-64
50-64: Biden 52-37 (+15) Most likely to be business owners/investors desperate to reopen
65+: Biden 70-24 (+46) !!! Highest risk from COVID-19, income least likely to be disrupted

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are gonna win Ca 25 back

[lfromnj]

Trump may have hit the Republican floor in the state in 2016.

Did you see how many districts flipped in 2018? The Republican floor here is a bottomless pit. Luckily for Republicans, gravity is "only a theory".

Btw I don't believe the GOP hit the bottom in 2018. However it is key to mention that all the flips in 2018 were in Clinton districts.

[SevenEleven]

Trump may have hit the Republican floor in the state in 2016.

Did you see how many districts flipped in 2018? The Republican floor here is a bottomless pit. Luckily for Republicans, gravity is "only a theory".

Btw I don't believe the GOP hit the bottom in 2018. However it is key to mention that all the flips in 2018 were in Clinton districts.

Most of the flips in 2018 were in Romney districts.

[lfromnj]

Trump may have hit the Republican floor in the state in 2016.

Did you see how many districts flipped in 2018? The Republican floor here is a bottomless pit. Luckily for Republicans, gravity is "only a theory".

Btw I don't believe the GOP hit the bottom in 2018. However it is key to mention that all the flips in 2018 were in Clinton districts.

All the flips in 2018 were in Romney districts.

First of all
CA 10th and CA 21 are obama districts.
Again in 2018 the CA gop in general outperformed  Trump or ran even. However I can definitely  see Trump doing worse than 2016 easily.

[DrScholl]

There is room for Trump to fall further. Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego counties alone will push the statewide total more Democratic.