Brexit Defeated - An Alternate UK Timeline

[tomhguy]

Brexit Defeated

Source: BBC Election Night 2015 Screenshot, https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/when-general-election-results-announced-10558873

24th June 2016, 7:35 AM
"Well, at 35 minutes past 7, we can now say for certain that the decision taken in 1975 by this country to join the common market has been kept by this referendum and the UK has decided to remain within the European Union. We can now say for certain that the Leave side has been defeated, by a close result, and there is absolutely no way that they can win. With this result, the Prime Minister has been given a mandate by the British people to carry out his changes to the UK's membership of the EU, and his mandate given at the election last year has also been reconfirmed. However, it remains to be seen how the Prime Minister will react to Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London, and Michael Gove, the Secretary of State for Justice, who were key leaders in the Leave campaign..."

Breaking News: UK Votes to Remain

Results of the 2016 Referendum
Remain: 51.3%
Leave: 48.7%
Turnout: 72.0%

"...we now join the Prime Minister, David Cameron, who is due to give a statement on the results."


Source: Brett Jordan, flicker.com, https://thephagroup.com/blog/public-affairs-pr-blog/the-brexit-referendum/

"The country has just taken part in a giant democratic excersize, perhaps the biggest in our history. Over 33 million people in England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar have all had their say. We should be proud of the fact that we trust the people with these big decisions. Not only do we have parliamentary democracy, but we also have the ability to ask the people themselves, and that is what we have done. This morning, we have found out that the British people voted yesterday to remain within the European Union, with a renegotiated agreement to better suit our 21st century needs and requirements. Let me thank both sides of the argument for a spirited and passionate campaign that helped the British people to come to their decision. Whilst the result was close, the British people were also clear about their desires and thus the honour is bestowed upon me to carry out that decision in the coming years. But whilst my side may have won, I would also like to offer out my hand to the 49% of Britons who voted to leave and make clear that your voice will not be ignored. I do not wish for Britain to be split into two due to this referendum, and thus I will make it my aim to unite the country and offer fair governance that listens to all people. In view of this close result, I shall reshuffle my cabinet this coming Monday in order to have clear representation for all sides of the debate. Thank you."

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So, what do you think? How long do you think Cameron will last as PM? What will happen to UKIP now? What about Corbyn's leadership? Who will Cameron include in his cabinet? And most importantly, any advice or thoughts or things that you want to see?

[Arson Plus]

I'm guessing that Cameron may resign because its closer then expected. It might be a moral victory for the Eurosceptics.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Yes! I love a good British timeline! If you remember, Cameron's authority eroded over the course of the EU campaign so I think the writing is on the wall for his premiership. Meanwhile, the Tories are going to be in a world of hurt because the UKIP vote is going nowhere but up. As for who'll succeed Cameron? Certainly not Mr. Corbyn or Mr. Johnson; we might still end up with May as PM.

[BigVic]

Theresa May as PM still

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Yes! I love a good British timeline! If you remember, Cameron's authority eroded over the course of the EU campaign so I think the writing is on the wall for his premiership. Meanwhile, the Tories are going to be in a world of hurt because the UKIP vote is going nowhere but up. As for who'll succeed Cameron? Certainly not Mr. Corbyn or Mr. Johnson; we might still end up with May as PM.

Yeah, what do you think about George Osborne, as many saw him as the obvious choice for the continuiation of Cameron's legacy?

If I recall he was not beloved by either Conservatives or the public because of his term as Chancellor. But I could definitely see him running for the leadership.

[Arson Plus]

Yes! I love a good British timeline! If you remember, Cameron's authority eroded over the course of the EU campaign so I think the writing is on the wall for his premiership. Meanwhile, the Tories are going to be in a world of hurt because the UKIP vote is going nowhere but up. As for who'll succeed Cameron? Certainly not Mr. Corbyn or Mr. Johnson; we might still end up with May as PM.

Yeah, what do you think about George Osborne, as many saw him as the obvious choice for the continuiation of Cameron's legacy?

Maybe May could run like she did in OTL to be a middle ground candidate, and possibly remove Osborne and end his political career.

[Arson Plus]

Why does Nigel Farage look like he is 10 years older in that photo? lol

[vileplume]

I think you've got the triumphalist tone totally wrong. A Remain victory this small would've given the 'establishment' a terrible shock and would've massively weakened David Cameron (though he probably would've held on at least a bit longer). All the media would've been talking about is why so many people in the country backed Leave and how Brussels's overreaches nearly 'drove' Britain out the door. Nigel Farage and co. would've been all over the airways demanding the EU repatriate more powers to Britain or we'll be 'forced' to hold a second referendum which may well actually go to leave. This would be the prevailing narrative in the country as a whole and certainly within the Tory Party.

Those who believe a narrow Remain vote would've meant Britain would've meant Britain would've become a collaborative state suddenly started sitting well within the EU are deluding themselves. More likely the fact that nearly half the country voted to Leave would've pushed the 'establishment' to become even more obstructive to the European project and would've demanded even more concessions/exceptions etc. UKIP would've won the next European parliament elections by a country mile (with the Lib Dems nowhere) and likely Farage would have claimed it was a mandate for another referendum as Brussels hadn't listened to the first one.

The future described here would require a huge Remain win (60-40 or thereabouts) which was never, ever going to happen.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

I think the vote of no confidence of Corbyn was going to happen anyway, so it does not surprise me it happens in this scenario.