Quinnipiac: Biden +11

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1263335901448540162

[MillennialModerate]

Anyone commenting that this race is over just doesn’t know a damn thing about Presidential elections both historically and recent past. This is far from over.

And there is ZERO chance in a country as polarized as we are with both sides not even agreeing on basic facts and basic principles - that any canidate has an 11 point lead. That’s insane. An 11 point Biden win would give Dems 400 EV (Including Texas and making Alaska a tossup) and it would make the Senate a virtual layup. I’m sorry folks but that’s just not happening.

I’d bet the house that this race is a lock to be between Biden +6 and Trump +2 • (translating to an electoral vote result of between 340 EV Biden to 200 EV Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone commenting that this race is over just doesn’t know a damn thing about Presidential elections both historically and recent past. This is far from over.

And there is ZERO chance in a country as polarized as we are with both sides not even agreeing on basic facts and basic principles - that any canidate has an 11 point lead. That’s insane. An 11 point Biden win would give Dems 400 EV (Including Texas and making Alaska a tossup) and it would make the Senate a virtual layup. I’m sorry folks but that’s just not happening.

I’d bet the house that this race is a lock to be between Biden +6 and Trump +2 • (translating to an electoral vote result of between 340 EV Biden to 200 EV Biden.

literally no one is (seriously) saying the race is over

[GeorgiaModerate]

Way too high, could indicate 'hidden' Trump vote. My guess will be 50-47 for Biden as the national vote, with 3% voting third party.

Based on what?

Based on the fact that Trump is an incumbent and is getting minimum 47% of the vote whether you like it or not. He isn't getting less than 2016. His approval is 2-3% higher than 2018.

There is absolutely no guarantee that Trump will get a minimum of 47%.  Your opinion does not make it so.

And you really don't have to keep spouting this stuff over and over again.  Everybody knows you don't think it's possible Trump can lose. 

When did I say it wasn't possible? It's just not likely.

I'm probably talking to the wall here, but what the heck, I'm an optimist...

You've got to be kidding with that question.  You use absolute statements of "this is the way it is" based on your own opinions, without acknowledging any uncertainty or backing them up with any reasoning.  In that post, you said:

"Trump is an incumbent and is getting minimum 47% of the vote whether you like it or not."

And in the very next post, you said:

"The most Biden can win the pop vote by is like 3 3.5%. That's it."

These are just a couple of examples.  If you want to have some hope of persuading people, you need to provide some reasoning behind your statements.  And if you want to be taken seriously at all, you've got to admit that there's a high degree of uncertainty at this point, almost six months before the election.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1263335901448540162

No, they just had Clinton leading by a measly 10 points (51-41) in August.

[emailking]

And there is ZERO chance in a country as polarized as we are with both sides not even agreeing on basic facts and basic principles - that any canidate has an 11 point lead. That’s insane. An 11 point Biden win would give Dems 400 EV (Including Texas and making Alaska a tossup) and it would make the Senate a virtual layup. I’m sorry folks but that’s just not happening.

I'd say a poll that indicates that will happen means there's more than a 0% chance it will happen.

[ElectionsGuy]

Quinnipiac has a serious issue oversampling white liberals. A lot of pollsters do actually, but Quinnipiac seems notorious for it. Doing some quick math the majority of the white sample is college-educated (53/47) when in 2018 it was 43/57, and 2020 will probably be even less given it's a presidential election. Among other things, their gender gap is also insane. Biden is leading white women by the same 11 points he is overall. Just laughable all around.

Given their history, we should treat Q by shaving 5 points off their D margin.

[wbrocks67]

Quinnipiac's last poll of 2018 had D+7 as the GCB. That was underselling it. They nailed the 2017 VA GOV race near the end, and other than FL, their track record was good in 2018 IIRC. Sure, this one may be overselling Ds a bit (doubt BIden is actually up by 11), but it's not like we haven't gotten other polls recently (Firehouse, Monmouth, Ipsos) that have also shown nearly the same thing.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Quinnipiac has a serious issue oversampling white liberals. A lot of pollsters do actually, but Quinnipiac seems notorious for it. Doing some quick math the majority of the white sample is college-educated (53/47) when in 2018 it was 43/57, and 2020 will probably be even less given it's a presidential election. Among other things, their gender gap is also insane. Biden is leading white women by the same 11 points he is overall. Just laughable all around.

Given their history, we should treat Q by shaving 5 points off their D margin.

We are in a Pandemic with 20% unemployment,  not in a 3.5 percent unemployment,  I know conservative leanings users think that it's a typical economic conditions,  but its not🤩🤩🤩

[Intell]

Clinton support was very unstable,  Biden's support is stable.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1263335901448540162

No, they just had Clinton leading by a measly 10 points (51-41) in August.

One outlier<Stable Average of QPac Polls