2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[lfromnj]

They should but the only Democrats with real balls left is Mike Madigan and maybe Maryland Democrats.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::45e9a5eb-6e4a-4795-b27b-e0b054e4c799

This is what Dems should be doing in MN!

"Map Load Failed"

[lfromnj]

Well the Rs still control the state senate- with 7 seats I guess just make MN02 about the same with some court map while 8 seats means they could just go 4-4.

[Gass3268]

Thankfully the Democrats control the Minnesota State Supreme Court. Won't be a gerrymander, but hopefully a favorable map that keeps Minneapolis and St. Paul separate.

[Nyvin]

Thankfully the Democrats control the Minnesota State Supreme Court. Won't be a gerrymander, but hopefully a favorable map that keeps Minneapolis and St. Paul separate.

Minneapolis and St Paul being separate doesn't really matter anymore for partisan balance.   It basically means MN-5 swings east instead of North.    

Both directions are heavy Dem,  doesn't seem to benefit Republicans to have the cities together.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

[Former President tack50]

Here is my attempt at a fair map, although I am not sure if this map would be accepted by the state legislature:



MN-01: Trump+20, R+8
MN-02: Trump+2, R+2
MN-03: Clinton+1, R+2
MN-04: Clinton+27, D+12
MN-05: Clinton+50, D+24
MN-06: Trump+33, R+14
MN-07: Trump+14, R+4

Basically the 2 Dems from St. Paul and Minneapolis get titanium and compact seats. The 2 dems from the suburbs that got elected in 2018 get districts with their homes in it that are tossups, albeit ones that are probably trending D relatively fast (I am confident that these were probably both Biden winning by mid single digits)

The Republicans get 3 safe districts, with the Republican elected in 2020 and one of the new ones from 2018 getting placed into the safe district.

Overall probably this is the most D-friendly map that can be sold as fair I think, but I guess the R state legislature will push to take Rochester out of MN-02 and put in some rurals instead (which would mean a 2D-3R-2S map in the short term, but with MN-03 very rapidly trending D)

[Idaho Conservative]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

hard to get 4 dem seats without cracking the cities, which wont happen.  you can get 2 urban d+1 suburban d OR 2 suburban swing seats

[Frodo]

Why are we assuming Minnesota is going to keep seven congressional districts after the 2020 census?   

[lfromnj]

Why are we assuming Minnesota is going to keep seven congressional districts after the 2020 census?   

We said 7 or 8 I think it keeps 8.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

hard to get 4 dem seats without cracking the cities, which wont happen.  you can get 2 urban d+1 suburban d OR 2 suburban swing seats

It's doable if you crack Hennepin but not Minneapolis:

[Idaho Conservative]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

hard to get 4 dem seats without cracking the cities, which wont happen.  you can get 2 urban d+1 suburban d OR 2 suburban swing seats

what are the numbers on those?

It's doable if you crack Hennepin but not Minneapolis:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

hard to get 4 dem seats without cracking the cities, which wont happen.  you can get 2 urban d+1 suburban d OR 2 suburban swing seats

It's doable if you crack Hennepin but not Minneapolis:

what are the numbers on those?

Green: Clinton+43
Teal: Clinton+19
Brown: Clinton+6 (but Trump only at 43)
Yellow: Clinton+5 (but Trump only at 43)

[Idaho Conservative]

With 7 seats, it's pretty obviously gonna be 4 dem seats in the Twin Cities and 3 gop seats in the rurals.

hard to get 4 dem seats without cracking the cities, which wont happen.  you can get 2 urban d+1 suburban d OR 2 suburban swing seats

It's doable if you crack Hennepin but not Minneapolis:

what are the numbers on those?

Green: Clinton+43
Teal: Clinton+19
Brown: Clinton+6 (but Trump only at 43)
Yellow: Clinton+5 (but Trump only at 43)

they lean dem but could both fall, there is a lot of ticket splitting in that area and especially in a midterm there would be a risk.  They do lean dem but that is not a 4D-3R map.  But this is still useful, it shows how difficult a 4D3R map would be, given that this is already very gerrymandered

[lfromnj]

Anyway its going to the courts most likely so a least change map with 8 districts would probably just make MN02 a bare Clinton district .



 A Surprisingly interesting configuration can be made with 7 districts by putting the twin cities together. However IIRC St.Paul has a pretty strong desire to be in its own district so this is merely an excerise into curiosity. This move moves MN03 to the left  moderately to Clinton +18 but moves MN04 very much to the right at Clinton +2.

MN02 stays mostly the same as the current map at Trump +2.5 .

Slightly R favorable but not incredibly so compared to one that keeps the cities separate because keeping one mega D "pack" with both cities does free up some inner ring suburbs of both districts.

[ilikeverin]

Yeah, folks without Minnesota ties do like putting the Cities together, but that would never, ever happen (and I appreciate you acknowledging that it wouldn't!) unless Republicans got a trifecta and really felt like flexing their muscles. Keeping Minneapolis and St. Paul separate is sacrosanct.

[lfromnj]

Yeah, folks without Minnesota ties do like putting the Cities together, but that would never, ever happen (and I appreciate you acknowledging that it wouldn't!) unless Republicans got a trifecta and really felt like flexing their muscles. Keeping Minneapolis and St. Paul separate is sacrosanct.

Well again its really not the best map for the GOP. I made it with non partisan intent but at the same time IMO its like splitting Bucks in PA right? Anyway was just an interesting fact that keeping the cities together wouldn't be a bad idea even in a fair map if it wasn't for local/parochial factors as it fits pretty neatly.

[Idaho Conservative]

Yeah, folks without Minnesota ties do like putting the Cities together, but that would never, ever happen (and I appreciate you acknowledging that it wouldn't!) unless Republicans got a trifecta and really felt like flexing their muscles. Keeping Minneapolis and St. Paul separate is sacrosanct.

Well again its really not the best map for the GOP. I made it with non partisan intent but at the same time IMO its like splitting Bucks in PA right? Anyway was just an interesting fact that keeping the cities together wouldn't be a bad idea even in a fair map if it wasn't for local/parochial factors as it fits pretty neatly.

in general, keeping the cities apart is better from a COI perspective.  Also, better for Republicans, actually.  Apart they need to take in some dem leaning inner suburbs.  Neither party would want to put them together, helps Dems in suburban districts and messes up Dem incumbents.  Omar can't win in a suburban district anyways.

[kwabbit]

My first attempt at Minnesota.

2 safe D, 2 Tossupish, 2 Likely R, 1 Safe R.

The two close Trump/Biden Twin City suburb districts. If I were to guess Emmer and McCollum would go head to head in the North suburb and it would be extremely competitive, although Emmer seems to be pretty strong so he might have the edge. Angie Craig would run in the South suburb district and would be favored. Hagedorn would reprise his role in the Southern MN district and would be favored, although Dems are stronger down ballot here. Stauber would win the Northern, although Dems have more down ballot strength here too. In the central Fischbach. In the Twin Cities Omar, although perhaps McCollum could run here too.

Now that I think about it, this might be the DFL's best chance to get rid of Omar but I doubt they do it.

I know now the Twin Cities are kept separate and I'll also make a new map with them in different districts.

[Sol]

I'm not sure if Scott County is really a great fit with Dakota County--maybe some of the more Minneapolis-y parts like Apple Valley or w/e but isn't the bulk of Dakota more St. Paul oriented?

[Nyvin]

This is probably as "plain" of a map that MN would find acceptable, as long as Omar doesn't mind losing some inner ring suburbs.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed56d09d-cd12-49b1-9c08-58160bc1511d





Easiest pairing in the Twin Cities is 2 districts between Anoka + Hennepin,  1 between Ramsey + Washington, and Dakota going south or west for the rest of the fourth district.   

[Idaho Conservative]

This is probably as "plain" of a map that MN would find acceptable, as long as Omar doesn't mind losing some inner ring suburbs.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ed56d09d-cd12-49b1-9c08-58160bc1511d





Easiest pairing in the Twin Cities is 2 districts between Anoka + Hennepin,  1 between Ramsey + Washington, and Dakota going south or west for the rest of the fourth district.   

MN either gets a bipartisan map or court map.  This map is pretty close to what you'd get with either, except the Minneapolis+Anoka which is pretty ridiculous.  I doubt the court would be THAT partisan.  Also, this would endanger Omar.  Omar did pretty poorly in by the more suburban parts of her district (in the primary) and Anoka would vote solidly against her.  She's not super popular, as evidenced by her underperformance in the general, so putting Anoka in would make her even more vulnerable to a primary challange.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Minneapolis plus southern Hennepin and Anoka plus the rest of Hennepin is a combination that works well enough. Clinton won both districts and Anoka and outer Hennepin trended pretty hard to Biden, so I don't think Phillips would be any worse off than he is currently with that kind of seat.

[IDMN]

Here's my court-drawn, least change 7 district map.

davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::36875808-6f83-44fe-8e66-3cbc4e158896

(sorry, I'm too new to post hyperlinks)

Notable districts:
MN-01 R+7 (Trump +18, Johnson + 0.9)
MN-02 R+1 (Clinton + 0.2, Walz + 8 )
MN-03 R+3 (Clinton + 0.4, Walz + 5)
MN-07 R+4 (Trump + 14, Johnson + 2)

Emmer and Fischbach get drawn together, but Fischbach could also challenge Stauber in the 7th. Phillips and Craig both get tossup districts that are trending left. Hagedorn is shored up with safer territory in the Minnesota River valley.

[Torie]