2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1354825863393497098?s=19

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1354825863393497098?s=19

Poorly aged things

[Brittain33]

How many posts will this thread get before new data is released in fall? More or fewer than 10?

[I’m not Stu]

If Fischbach's district isn't cut, is she vulnerable to a primary challenge?

[Torie]

How many posts will this thread get before new data is released in fall? More or fewer than 10?

Least change maps that a court would draw in the event of a deadlock are boring.

[Torie]

Here is my least change court drawn map to put in the hopper. Not much happens vis a vis the existing map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ecd8e1ba-c809-4be2-91f5-4e7c3a81b549

[Nyvin]

It's kind of an open question on what happens to MN-1,  could be made somewhat, kinda competitive (but still R).







https://davesredistricting.org/join/f27e6b94-e78f-4726-bf94-4a5d9911d535

Obviously this doesn't really matter without the actual county data from the Census, but still interesting that MN-1 doesn't really have to be a safe R seat.

[Stuart98]

Threw together a 4-3-1 map


MN-08 was Trump +0.7 in 2020; it has countervailing trends (Saint Paul suburbs trending D while the Iron Range is trending R) and should be competitive for a long time.

MN-02 is basically the same as the current iteration. It might be competitive in 2022 but long term this seat is gone for the GOP.

MN-01 is much more R than the current iteration (Trump +13.5 in 2020) and is probably safe R for the foreseeable future.

All other seats are exactly what you expect, safe for the incumbent party.

[Gass3268]

Democrats already trying to get this pushed to state courts.

https://twitter.com/DemRedistrict/status/1386845658280349699

[I’m not Stu]

I think Minnesota loses a district.

[Nyvin]

I think Minnesota loses a district.

Nope,  it keeps the eighth.   Results came out today.

[I’m not Stu]

Now that Minnesota keeps eight, will Fischbach survive or get primaried out?

[SInNYC]

Is there a way to draw a Duluth-Fargo (OK, Moorhead) district now that MN isn't losing a seat?

This would presumably be competitive, and I just like the aesthetics of having a large district that could go either way on the map to avoid the boring blue dots on a red background, not to mention representation for non-right-wing populists.

[Torie]

If the Court draws the map, it will almost certainly be a least change map, with the changes focused on reducing or eliminating existing county splits where they exist. I revised slightly my least change map above to more closely hew to that metric. The net partisan changes are close to nill.

[lfromnj]

If the Court draws the map, it will almost certainly be a least change map, with the changes focused on reducing or eliminating existing county splits where they exist. I revised slightly my least change map above to more closely hew to that metric. The net partisan changes are close to nill.

From what I understand although in outstate County splits were minimal, there were some "unneccesary" splits for community/ to reduce township splits. Anoka is a good example and its a good example in Anoka county which really is a county which should atleast be split between the old Menomin county where some of the original Minneapolis suburbs came originally.

[Torie]

If the Court draws the map, it will almost certainly be a least change map, with the changes focused on reducing or eliminating existing county splits where they exist. I revised slightly my least change map above to more closely hew to that metric. The net partisan changes are close to nill.

From what I understand although in outstate County splits were minimal, there were some "unneccesary" splits for community/ to reduce township splits. Anoka is a good example and its a good example in Anoka county which really is a county which should atleast be split between the old Menomin county where some of the original Minneapolis suburbs came originally.

I understand. The toggle lines show where the changes were made, other than Northern Washington County, where it was moved from MN-06 to MN-08, without changing the existing line between it and MN-04. So MN-06 loses that bit, but picks up Coon Rapids in Anoka County.

Least change is particularly likely here since the Court drew the existing map in a very competent and non partisan way, so it is particularly appropriate to use it as the basis for a new map. I might note that the Court shares my fondness for rectangular shapes.




Addendum: Per incoming, I adjusted the linked map to unite the city of Northfield, but not in the district the source of the incoming preferred.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ecd8e1ba-c809-4be2-91f5-4e7c3a81b549

[Brittain33]

Did you adjust for expected population losses in the 3 out state districts?

[Torie]

Did you adjust for expected population losses in the 3 out state districts?

No I just used the DRA 2019 numbers, which do reflect the population changes from the 2010 census in the manner you suggest, at least to some extent. I can't draw based on what is unknown, but I doubt the final numbers will upset the apple cart that much. We shall see.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1354825863393497098?s=19

he sounds like an extremely sore loser.

[Torie]

Colin Peterson appears to be totally clueless about the process, and what Court's do in the case a map cannot be passed, and they have to draw the map. Or perhaps he has not been informed that MN is retaining 8 CD's. Sad!

[Brittain33]

Colin Peterson appears to be totally clueless about the process, and what Court's do in the case a map cannot be passed, and they have to draw the map. Or perhaps he has not been informed that MN is retaining 8 CD's. Sad!

It looks like from the URL this was a quote from a Politico story in January, so it’s not so bad for him.

[Torie]

Colin Peterson appears to be totally clueless about the process, and what Court's do in the case a map cannot be passed, and they have to draw the map. Or perhaps he has not been informed that MN is retaining 8 CD's. Sad!

It looks like from the URL this was a quote from a Politico story in January, so it’s not so bad for him.

Indeed. Unfair in fact. It was expected that MN would probably lose a seat, and quite possible in that event that his former CD would be sliced and diced. That is certainly what my maps did!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Colin Peterson appears to be totally clueless about the process, and what Court's do in the case a map cannot be passed, and they have to draw the map. Or perhaps he has not been informed that MN is retaining 8 CD's. Sad!

It looks like from the URL this was a quote from a Politico story in January, so it’s not so bad for him.

Indeed. Unfair in fact. It was expected that MN would probably lose a seat, and quite possible in that event that his former CD would be sliced and diced. That is certainly what my maps did!

MN keeping the 8th is the biggest surprise from the apportionment numbers, leaving aside RI keeping its 2nd.

[Sol]

Colin Peterson appears to be totally clueless about the process, and what Court's do in the case a map cannot be passed, and they have to draw the map. Or perhaps he has not been informed that MN is retaining 8 CD's. Sad!

It looks like from the URL this was a quote from a Politico story in January, so it’s not so bad for him.

Indeed. Unfair in fact. It was expected that MN would probably lose a seat, and quite possible in that event that his former CD would be sliced and diced. That is certainly what my maps did!

MN keeping the 8th is the biggest surprise from the apportionment numbers, leaving aside RI keeping its 2nd.

You think the VRA requires something erose, when a CD drawn pursuant to neutral redistricting principles just happens to pack? The issue is that the real estate is empty around the RGV population nodes. I have never read anything under section 2 that suggests that you have to draw something that looks like a clear gerrymander to reduce packing. The only possible exception to some degree would be where Gingles triggers the need for another performing minority CD. It is also not clear at all that you need to draw something in clearly excess of 50% HCVAP, particularly via gerrymandering, solely because it is still not performing due to low Hispanic turnout. Finally, if RGV Hispanics continue to cast 40%+ for GOP candidates, it seems reasonably likely to me that Section 2 and Gingles will cease to apply to the area at all.

Hey, and then  maybe it would come back if RGV Hispanics start voting heavily GOP ala the Miami area Hispanics, and the Dems want to slice and dice them, so that the white wokesters in Austin can dominate the RGV - LULAC in reverse. 

Did you mean this for a different thread?

[Torie]

MN does not have fajita strips? Who knew?