2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[jimrtex]

Here's my Minnesota map. I don't really understand why the twin cities shouldn't go together but it's whatever I separated them anyways. I'm not sure about the 3rd and 4th but I was able to calculate how the rest voted in 2020 since county splits are minimal in my map.



MN-1: Biden+32
MN-2: Trump+12
MN-5: Biden+0.5
MN-6: Trump+25
MN-7: Trump+18

2012-2016 PVI
MN-1: D+12
MN-2: R+6
MN-3: D+24
MN-4: R+2
MN-5: R+5
MN-6: R+11
MN-7: R+6

You will want to place Lake of Woods in MN-6, and at least the four southeastern townships of Beltrami in MN-7 to avoid dividing Indian Reservations. If you need to balance population you may want to replicate the current division of Beltrami.

Also I would place Nicollet in MN-2 (which should numbered MN-1) to avoid splitting the Mankato area.

[jimrtex]

There are 8 senate districts in southeast Minnesota.

Olmsted	2.018	2	0.89%
FilHouWin	0.998	1	-0.25%
Dodgoowab	0.986	1	-1.38%
FaiFreeMow	0.992	1	-0.80%
BluEarWas	1.023	1	2.28%
NicLaSue	0.976	1	-2.42%
RiceSteele	1.001	1	0.11%

Olmsted (1.885) is just short of enough for two districts; while Fillmore-Hastings-Winona (1.062); and Dodge-Goodhue-Wabasha (1.052) are just beyond 5% deviation. Enough of Goodhue and Winona are peeled off to equalize the districts. The city of Rochester is entitled to 1.418 districts, so one of the Olmsted districts will be wholly in the city (probably the oldest, most settled part), with the other forming a donut district.

Faribault-Freeborn-Mower form an almost perfect district (0.992) along I-90.

Blue Earth and Waseca form a whole-county district (1.023).

Nicollet, Le Sueur, Rice, and Steele collectively have enough population for two districts (1.977), but require a cut of Rice. The cut is somewhat ugly as the population in Rice is concentrated in the cities of Northfield and Faribault, either of which would be too large to transfer to Nicollet-Le Sueur. Enough of western Rice (around 20,000) is gathered up to get Nicollet-Le Sueur into range, leaving Rice-Steele as an I-35 aligned exurban district.

[jimrtex]

There are eight senate districts in southwest Minnesota.

Southwest West	0.983	1	-1.66%
Southwest East	1.034	1	3.44%
KanMeek	1.015	1	1.50%
McLSib	1.008	1	0.80%
Wright	1.011	1	1.13%
West Central	0.957	1	-4.32%
Stearns	0.957	1	-4.27%
St. Cloud	0.957	1	-4.30%

The original configuration of the districts in the southwestern corner had two six-packs in compact configuration but would have required splitting a county. The new arrangement avoids a split. The long side of the corner district is along I-90.

The 9-county west central district is generally along the Minnesota River, its size reflects the sparsity of population.

Wright is entitled to 1.649 districts. While it could be paired with McLeod, this would isolate Sibley. Instead McLeod and Sibley together are entitled to 0.599, and Kandiyohi and Meeker entitled to 0.786 both take part of Wright. This leaves a district entirely in Wright in the exurban/suburban northeastern corner (growth in Wright is oriented towards I-94 moreso than directly west from Minneapolis).

Stearns is just barely entitled to two representatives. The split places St. Cloud and its two largest suburbs, of Sartell and Waite Park in a compact urban district, and the more rural along with outlying areas in the other.

[jimrtex]

Dr. RI, in this thread:

How urban, suburban, or rural each census tract perceives itself to be

has produced a map based on a HUD study that predicts how each census tract would perceive itself - urban, suburban, or rural.

This map would indicate the existence of an urban community of interest that is distinct from the suburban community of interest in the Twin Cities area.

The strongest predictors were found to be population and housing density. Minneapolis is 75% to 100% more dense than the first tier suburbs, and three-to-four times more dense than second-tier suburbs. St.Paul is not as dense as Minneapolis, but more dense than the Minneapolis suburbs.

Other factors such as education levels, income, race, etc. would indicate that Minneapolis and St. Paul form more of a COI than Minneapolis and the Hennepin suburbs.

[Zaybay]

Dr. RI, in this thread:

How urban, suburban, or rural each census tract perceives itself to be

has produced a map based on a HUD study that predicts how each census tract would perceive itself - urban, suburban, or rural.

This map would indicate the existence of an urban community of interest that is distinct from the suburban community of interest in the Twin Cities area.

The strongest predictors were found to be population and housing density. Minneapolis is 75% to 100% more dense than the first tier suburbs, and three-to-four times more dense than second-tier suburbs. St.Paul is not as dense as Minneapolis, but more dense than the Minneapolis suburbs.

Other factors such as education levels, income, race, etc. would indicate that Minneapolis and St. Paul form more of a COI than Minneapolis and the Hennepin suburbs.

Are you really still stuck with the whole "Minneapolis and St Paul should be one CD" argument?

It's already been discussed (to death) why that won't happen.

Also, "urban" is not a community of interest. Pairing up cities with other cities does not create a COI. Many cities across the US share more in common with their respective suburbs or even rural regions rather than a nearby city.

[jimrtex]

Dr. RI, in this thread:

How urban, suburban, or rural each census tract perceives itself to be

has produced a map based on a HUD study that predicts how each census tract would perceive itself - urban, suburban, or rural.

This map would indicate the existence of an urban community of interest that is distinct from the suburban community of interest in the Twin Cities area.

The strongest predictors were found to be population and housing density. Minneapolis is 75% to 100% more dense than the first tier suburbs, and three-to-four times more dense than second-tier suburbs. St.Paul is not as dense as Minneapolis, but more dense than the Minneapolis suburbs.

Other factors such as education levels, income, race, etc. would indicate that Minneapolis and St. Paul form more of a COI than Minneapolis and the Hennepin suburbs.

Are you really still stuck with the whole "Minneapolis and St Paul should be one CD" argument?

It's already been discussed (to death) why that won't happen.

Also, "urban" is not a community of interest. Pairing up cities with other cities does not create a COI. Many cities across the US share more in common with their respective suburbs or even rural regions rather than a nearby city.

The proposed redistricting commission includes the following definition:

"A community of interest may include an ethnic or language group or any group with shared experiences and concerns, including but not limited to geographic, governmental, regional, social, cultural, historic, socioeconomic, occupational, trade, or transportation interests."

Minneapolis and St.Paul share lower levels of educational attainment, higher levels of poverty, lower levels of home ownership, higher residential densities, higher non-white populations.

[Former President tack50]

I mean, after looking that map by Dr RI I am more convinced than on a map purely and exclusively based on COIs, the way to go would be to merge the twin cities. However there are arguments that go both ways so it is far from an easy question.

That of course ignores the arguments about why it will not happen due to partisan, political and historical concerns so it is purely hypothetical.

[jimrtex]

I mean, after looking that map by Dr RI I am more convinced than on a map purely and exclusively based on COIs, the way to go would be to merge the twin cities. However there are arguments that go both ways so it is far from an easy question.

That of course ignores the arguments about why it will not happen due to partisan, political and historical concerns so it is purely hypothetical.

It would be illegitimate for a court to draw a map based on partisan or political concerns.

The historical concerns have some merit. The reason that Minneapolis and St. Paul have been placed in different districts is that they are in different counties, and both of those counties had sufficient population for at least one district. Indeed, at one time Minneapolis had more than enough population for one district, and had to be split.

At one time, "Hennepin" meant "Miineapolis and some farmers", and "Ramsey" meant "St. Paul and some lumberjacks", and that was OK.

Minneapolis had its peak population when Harry Truman was president. Its population share has been declining. Now most of the population in Hennepin is in the suburbs. It is as reasonable to keep the Hennepin suburbs together as it is to split them.

[jimrtex]

Here is the complaint. This links to the Carver County District Court and will be available for about 30 days. I'm guessing it will get kicked up to the Minnesota Supreme Court at some time.

Wattson v Simon complaint (PDF)

You will be interested in an Appendix that includes a proposal for a redistricting commission, though I don't think can be voted on until 2022.

I am a personal acquaintance of the plaintiff and very familiar with his views on redistricting law and reform. He's a national expert with few peers.

I haven't spoken to him about this, but I know he is very familiar with the inability of a divided MN legislature to pass a map in a timely fashion. He is also aware that the state justices went to a third party to create the current map. I think he's putting down a marker to be that third party or how that third party should operate.

I'm not sure why the tweet focused on large elections for congress, since that was more a passing comment as to one possible outcome. The outcome he would like seems to be a commission along the lines in the appendix. More importantly he has created plans using the criteria in the model legislation and asks that they be used absent a legislature-created plan.

One challenge for this thread might be to draw 7 CD plans using the criteria proposed for the commission in the complaint. It would be interesting to see how they compare to the map they drew.

The plaintiffs have filed a petition with the Minnesota Supreme Court asking that they take jurisdiction and do nothing at this point. Apparently the Supreme Court does not have original jurisdiction, and the petition suggests that there could be multiple district court filings with conflicting decisions.

[Stuart98]

Why are y'all still devoting so much energy to arguing about something that literally has a zero percent chance of happening.

[Sol]

I mean, after looking that map by Dr RI I am more convinced than on a map purely and exclusively based on COIs, the way to go would be to merge the twin cities.

How exactly are you determining CoIs lol? Communities of interest are generally determined by the perspective of the people who live there, and the horrified reaction of our Minnesotan posters is probably most indicative.

[jimrtex]

This is a question that could equally be asked of your maps, and the answer would be a definite no. Why precisely do you think that the Minnesota courts would be any more sympathetic to your opinions than any other Minnesotan?

I recognize that no map will be passed by the Minnesota legislature. The Republicans control the Senate, the Democrats control the House. They have already laid out the procedure when the legislature fails to act.

Please (re)read this article, and take the time to actually read Hippert v Ritchie

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=374399.msg7941252#msg7941252

(1) The legislature is not going to pass a congressional map.

(2) The map will be drawn by the Minnesota courts (see Growe v Emison)

(3) The day after the the apportionment numbers are announced, suit will be filed that Minnesota does not have seven congressional districts. The Minnesota Supreme Court will take jurisdiction, but delay action until the legislature fails to act.

The court only has authority to correct an omission or commission by the legislature. The legislature is not going to pass a congressional map.

(4) Minnesota statute requires a map 25 weeks before the primary. Sooner or later Tim Walz is going to admit that the legislature is not going to act regardless of how many special sessions he calls.

(5) The Supreme Court will use the same procedures as were used in 2001 and 2011. The panel will repeat the analysis done in 2001 when they switched to a 5:3 plan over the objections of the DFL and R hacks, and conclude that 4:3 fits the state geography. Nobody has ever argued that going out to St. Cloud is a good idea.

(6) My map preserves the existing three out-state districts while adjusting their population upward. It is a slam dunk.

I was in error about the timing. The lawsuit has already been filed, but appears to be mainly to get the Supreme Court to gain jurisdiction. Apparently in Minnesota, such a suit has to be filed in district court. After the case was filed, the plaintiffs petitions the Supreme Court to take control, but doing nothing until the legislature demonstrates that they will not pass a map.

[jimrtex]

I mean, after looking that map by Dr RI I am more convinced than on a map purely and exclusively based on COIs, the way to go would be to merge the twin cities.

How exactly are you determining CoIs lol? Communities of interest are generally determined by the perspective of the people who live there, and the horrified reaction of our Minnesotan posters is probably most indicative.

Minnesotans should be practicing their COI arguments. "Retired miners in the Iron Range have debilitating diseases that are treated at the Mayo Clinic. Duluth and Rochester form a COI"

"Superior, Fargo, Sioux Falls, and La Crosse, all have a lot in common. They should be placed in the same Minnesota congressional district."

[jimrtex]

Northwest Minnesota is entitled to 5 districts.

Northwest West	1.000	1	0.00%
Northwest East	1.029	1	2.93%
ClayWilk	0.975	1	-2.49%
OtterBeck	0.967	1	-3.32%
DogrToWa	0.976	1	-2.36%

Three districts are made up of whole counties.

Clay and Wilkin are entitled to 0.837 districts, while Becker and Otter Tail are entitled to 1.105 districts. I experimented with augmenting the Clay-Wilkin district with areas from either Becker or Otter Tail, but they ended up in the middle of Detroit Lakes or Fergus Falls. This was true, even if Wilkin was dropped from the district.

The final version was to take a rural area between Detroit Lakes and Fergus Falls that was entirely in Otter Tail. This could be cut back some if both Becker and Otter Tail were split. My preference is to only split one county.

[jimrtex]

East Central Minnesota is entitled to five senate districts.

AitCW	0.959	1	-4.11%
Sherburne	1.017	1	1.66%
BentMorr	1.022	1	2.21%
IsantiKanMill	0.987	1	-1.34%
ChisagoPine	1.021	1	2.09%

There are three whole county districts.

Benton and Morrison are entitled to 0.881 districts. Sherburne is entitled to 1.158 districts. The northwestern corner of Sherburne, including the Sherburne segment of St. Cloud and two townships are added to Benton and Morrison district.

[jimrtex]

Northeast Minnesota is entitled to 4 districts.

CassItasKooch	1.030	1	3.02%
St.Louis	0.971	1	-2.88%
Duluth	1.011	1	1.14%
Carlton	0.984	1	-1.58%

There is one whole-county district: Cass-Itasca-Koochiching.

St. Louis (2.352), Carlton (0.482), Lake and Cook (0.191) are collectively entitled to 2.967 districts.

The city of Duluth (1.011) is almost the exact size for a senate district.

I tried to compose a district with Carlton, the Duluth suburbs, and St.Louis south of the Iron Range but this pushed into Hibbing.

So instead the district was Carlton, the Duluth suburbs, and Lake and Cook counties. Given the concentration of Lake and Cook population on the Lake Superior lake shore this district is conceptually more compact than it appears. The other St.Louis district is centered on the Iron Range along with the southern part of county outside the immediate Duluth area and the northern part of the county.

[Torie]

The 2020 data for MN is in, so I thought it time to put up my map! Well I guess not for the population figures, just the 2020 election results. Never mind.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/562164e2-3651-4f41-8781-e3c06a37f26b

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6154781b-9ee2-48fa-8909-94860fd619e0

Nice and clean, only four counties are split, and those are all micro splits except Hennepin.   MN-7 retains all it's original territory,  MN-2 does too except what was in Washington.

St Cloud Metro kept intact.

[jimrtex]

The petition is now available at a more permanent location.

Wattson v. Simon (PDF)

The Minnesota Supreme Court has taken the case and agreed to appoint a panel of judges, They then stayed their decisions since the legislature has the initial responsibility to act.

[lfromnj]

For curiosity's sake who would win a Minneapolis/ST paul district?

Normally I would say the Minneapolis candidate but I think Omar would underperform just enough on her side to lose to Betty Mccollum.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

For curiosity's sake who would win a Minneapolis/ST paul district?

Normally I would say the Minneapolis candidate but I think Omar would underperform just enough on her side to lose to Betty Mccollum.

McCollum would win

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For curiosity's sake who would win a Minneapolis/ST paul district?

Normally I would say the Minneapolis candidate but I think Omar would underperform just enough on her side to lose to Betty Mccollum.

McCollum would win

Yep, she is both the more senior incumbent and has more solid support from her own half of the district.

[jimrtex]

For curiosity's sake who would win a Minneapolis/ST paul district?

Normally I would say the Minneapolis candidate but I think Omar would underperform just enough on her side to lose to Betty Mccollum.

Minnesota has an open primary.

You pick your party on the ballot. Voters might choose to vote DFL to have a say in who their representative was. They could still vote Republican or Pot Party in the general election for statewide offices.

Having Omar on the general election ballot would likely give the Republicans a few more percentage points in the suburbs.

[Meatball Ron]

Soooooo, in light of the news that MN will unexpectedly keep its 8th seat, what do we expect will happen here? Presumably the lower-growth seats (01, 07, 08) will have to expand a bit and the higher-growth seats in the Twin Cities metro will have to grow?

Perhaps MN-02 sheds some of its more conservative areas to MN-01, locking in a 4-4 as opposed to possibility of a 5-3 result for either party. Seems like a fair outcome, very slightly D-favorable relative to the current state of affairs which feels appropriate given they control more of the state's government.

[Nyvin]

Soooooo, in light of the news that MN will unexpectedly keep its 8th seat, what do we expect will happen here? Presumably the lower-growth seats (01, 07, 08) will have to expand a bit and the higher-growth seats in the Twin Cities metro will have to grow?

Perhaps MN-02 sheds some of its more conservative areas to MN-01, locking in a 4-4 as opposed to possibility of a 5-3 result for either party. Seems like a fair outcome, very slightly D-favorable relative to the current state of affairs which feels appropriate given they control more of the state's government.

A 4-4 delegation seems 100% locked in now,  I can't see any other scenario happening at all.

MN-1 might be a bit less than Safe R though since it has to take in less rural territory.