2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's my Minnesota map. I don't really understand why the twin cities shouldn't go together but it's whatever I separated them anyways. I'm not sure about the 3rd and 4th but I was able to calculate how the rest voted in 2020 since county splits are minimal in my map.



MN-1: Biden+32
MN-2: Trump+12
MN-5: Biden+0.5
MN-6: Trump+25
MN-7: Trump+18

2012-2016 PVI
MN-1: D+12
MN-2: R+6
MN-3: D+24
MN-4: R+2
MN-5: R+5
MN-6: R+11
MN-7: R+6

Interesting choices. This is the first map in the thread that really eliminates the 6th as opposed to the 7th.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's my Minnesota map. I don't really understand why the twin cities shouldn't go together but it's whatever I separated them anyways. I'm not sure about the 3rd and 4th but I was able to calculate how the rest voted in 2020 since county splits are minimal in my map.



MN-1: Biden+32
MN-2: Trump+12
MN-5: Biden+0.5
MN-6: Trump+25
MN-7: Trump+18

2012-2016 PVI
MN-1: D+12
MN-2: R+6
MN-3: D+24
MN-4: R+2
MN-5: R+5
MN-6: R+11
MN-7: R+6

Interesting choices. This is the first map in the thread that really eliminates the 6th as opposed to the 7th.

The way I looked at it was I took the seven major metropolitan counties and made districts out of them (added Wright since it's part of the metro) and then I looked up regions of Minnesota and put together the map based on those.

Well, it's not that bad of a map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For curiosity's sake who would win a Minneapolis/ST paul district?

Normally I would say the Minneapolis candidate but I think Omar would underperform just enough on her side to lose to Betty Mccollum.

McCollum would win

Yep, she is both the more senior incumbent and has more solid support from her own half of the district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Colin Peterson appears to be totally clueless about the process, and what Court's do in the case a map cannot be passed, and they have to draw the map. Or perhaps he has not been informed that MN is retaining 8 CD's. Sad!

It looks like from the URL this was a quote from a Politico story in January, so it’s not so bad for him.

Indeed. Unfair in fact. It was expected that MN would probably lose a seat, and quite possible in that event that his former CD would be sliced and diced. That is certainly what my maps did!

MN keeping the 8th is the biggest surprise from the apportionment numbers, leaving aside RI keeping its 2nd.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

MN does not have fajita strips? Who knew?

Oh, but it does!

https://davesredistricting.org/join/323e42f6-3aeb-4d96-8aee-64412f9bc87e

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is my least change court drawn map to put in the hopper. Not much happens vis a vis the existing map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ecd8e1ba-c809-4be2-91f5-4e7c3a81b549

There have been lots of rather exotic-looking maps drawn in this thread, but if Minnesota (against all odds) is keeping its eighth congressional district, this will be the most likely (though boring) map to be adopted, especially given the evenly divided and split nature of the legislature.  So largely an incumbent-protection map with some minor shifts to account for population changes.     

Yep. I highly doubt the new congressional map changes any more than necessary from the current one. State legislative maps will be far more interesting.

What do you see happening there?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Strange that they actually removed Northfield from Craig's district. Trying to make the 1st competitive again?

Isn't MN-01 competitive as is?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Clear GOP gerrymander from the MN Republicans.

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1466801439183937542?s=20

I see what the GOP map does to that marginal MN-01.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ngl the splits are kinda ugly and don't know s--- ab Minny COIs but proportional map similar to the Sachs plaintiff plan

'16/20 PVI
MN-01:R+6.62
MN-02:D+4.47
MN-03:D+5.83
MN-04:D+15.13
MN-05:D+28.00
MN-06:R+14.80
MN-07:R+16.66
MN-08:R+9.05

Overall 2D/4/2R on paper though realistically it'd be 4D/4R most years, 5D/3R in a blue wave, or 3D/5R in a red wave. Trends prolly mean both Twin Cities suburban D-marginals and Hagedorn's in the Driftless Area become less competitive over time. Again slapped this one together real quick, very much defer to anyone who has an ear to the ground of what's going on in the Land O' Lakes.

The increasing population concentration in MSP is quite evident here, looking at the districts in Dakota, Washington, Ramsey, and Hennipen.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I tried my hand at a fair congressional map of Minnesota using the 2020 census results.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is less than 0.01%.

100/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
62/100 on the Compactness Index
64/100 on County Splitting
19/100 on the Minority Representation index
28/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential election in Minnesota.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2014 Minnesota Attorney General Election: 6D to 2R

2014 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota: 5D to 3R

2014 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election: 4D to 4R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Minnesota: 5R to 3D

2018 Minnesota Attorney General Election: 5R to 3D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota: 7D to 1R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota (Special): 5D to 3R

2018 Minnesota Gubernatorial Election: 6D to 2R

2020 U.S. Senate Election in Minnesota: 4D to 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Minnesota: 4D to 4R


Minnesota doesn't really have minorities so there isn't much in the way of minority representation. There are two seats where minorities are over 30% of the Voting-Age population, one centered around Minneapolis and the other St. Paul.


Opinions?

Cleaner than a whistle, more compact than a New York apartment.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

MN-06 no longer borders Wisconsin. A sign of the population growth in the outer MSP metro.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the partisanship of MN-02?

Looks about Biden + 7.5ish

That should make Angie Craig reasonably secure.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's the partisanship of MN-02?

Looks about Biden + 7.5ish

That should make Angie Craig reasonably secure.

Its 7.2 from 6.9.

Ah, so not as much of a change as I expected from just the top-line.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wow
https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1493665853266710530?cxt=HHwWhMC-0cDLyLopAAAA
MN02 actually flips to a Romney seat in 2012.

Flashback to when MN-01 and MN-08 were better for Dems than MN-02 and MN-03.

Flashback to when MN-07 had a better history of electing Democrats over the past three decades than MN-03.