2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

.....


Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

even a D trifecta would be unlikely to do that. Placing Minneapolis with non-neglible parts of Rice County,  or even all of Carver? Not gonna happen.
Seriously, a blatant gerrymander of any sort is 95% off the table.

There's no need to bring in Rice, and I don't see 3R-4D as a blatant gerrymander. Basically, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Chisago, Anoka, Wright, Carver, Scott, and Dakota add up to a perfect four districts which voted 59-41 Clinton-Trump. Not that hard to turn that area into 4 safe Dem districts. I get that DFL is all about good governance, but this really isn't that hard of a lift.

4 Clinton +10 districts in a state that was Clinton +2 is definitely a gerrymander. A fair map would probably be 3-1-3, with the 1 either taking up the territory of the current second or a more conservative third.

It also has 3 Trump+10 districts. I'm generally not convinced by the promote competitive seats argument and instead prefer to lock in districts to match the rough partisan breakdown of a state.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

.....


Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

even a D trifecta would be unlikely to do that. Placing Minneapolis with non-neglible parts of Rice County,  or even all of Carver? Not gonna happen.
Seriously, a blatant gerrymander of any sort is 95% off the table.

There's no need to bring in Rice, and I don't see 3R-4D as a blatant gerrymander. Basically, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Chisago, Anoka, Wright, Carver, Scott, and Dakota add up to a perfect four districts which voted 59-41 Clinton-Trump. Not that hard to turn that area into 4 safe Dem districts. I get that DFL is all about good governance, but this really isn't that hard of a lift.

4 Clinton +10 districts in a state that was Clinton +2 is definitely a gerrymander. A fair map would probably be 3-1-3, with the 1 either taking up the territory of the current second or a more conservative third.

It also has 3 Trump+10 districts. I'm generally not convinced by the promote competitive seats argument and instead prefer to lock in districts to match the rough partisan breakdown of a state.

So it's fair if Trump wins the state in 2020 with just 3 seats despite the political geography of the state favoring him too? Hmm.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

.....


Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

even a D trifecta would be unlikely to do that. Placing Minneapolis with non-neglible parts of Rice County,  or even all of Carver? Not gonna happen.
Seriously, a blatant gerrymander of any sort is 95% off the table.

There's no need to bring in Rice, and I don't see 3R-4D as a blatant gerrymander. Basically, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Chisago, Anoka, Wright, Carver, Scott, and Dakota add up to a perfect four districts which voted 59-41 Clinton-Trump. Not that hard to turn that area into 4 safe Dem districts. I get that DFL is all about good governance, but this really isn't that hard of a lift.

4 Clinton +10 districts in a state that was Clinton +2 is definitely a gerrymander. A fair map would probably be 3-1-3, with the 1 either taking up the territory of the current second or a more conservative third.

It also has 3 Trump+10 districts. I'm generally not convinced by the promote competitive seats argument and instead prefer to lock in districts to match the rough partisan breakdown of a state.

So it's fair if Trump wins the state in 2020 with just 3 seats despite the political geography of the state favoring him too? Hmm.

Trump is not coming close to winning Minnesota in 2020. Sorry bud.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Your map has 3 Clinton districts and 4 Trump ones. That just isn't going to go ahead. I am confident that there will be 4 Twin Cities districts that are all Clinton+10 or better.

.....


Wut

You honestly think a Dem trifecta would draw anything but? The urban cores will be split four ways and the three rural districts will be packed. Any 4R-3D map is an obvious nonstarter.

It's not a D trifecta though

even a D trifecta would be unlikely to do that. Placing Minneapolis with non-neglible parts of Rice County,  or even all of Carver? Not gonna happen.
Seriously, a blatant gerrymander of any sort is 95% off the table.

There's no need to bring in Rice, and I don't see 3R-4D as a blatant gerrymander. Basically, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington, Chisago, Anoka, Wright, Carver, Scott, and Dakota add up to a perfect four districts which voted 59-41 Clinton-Trump. Not that hard to turn that area into 4 safe Dem districts. I get that DFL is all about good governance, but this really isn't that hard of a lift.

4 Clinton +10 districts in a state that was Clinton +2 is definitely a gerrymander. A fair map would probably be 3-1-3, with the 1 either taking up the territory of the current second or a more conservative third.

While I agree about the 3-1-3 thing, I disagree about the location of the 1. Most viable and most logical location would be a simple 1st district covering the entire south of the state.

How would you draw that so it isn't safe R?

The R+5 seat that I have drawn is very competitive and would easily fit the bill for a swing district.

[Sestak]

Can you stop derailing please. This thread is specifically for discussion of redistricting. Not arguments on state-level trends (unless regarding how they specifically affect district drawing).

Leave these dumb quote pyramid back-and-fifth arguments to USGD and the internal board where they belong.

[lfromnj]

The easiest pairing in the Metro
is one Minneapolis +inner ring suburbs
One outer ring Hennepin+Almost all of Anoka
Ramsey+Washington is also a district
and Dakota+Scott+Carver and a bit South including rice.
Probably not the best from a COI perspective though.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The question is whether the DFL want a secure 4-3 or are happy with a 3-1-3, with the 2nd as a swing seat trending mildly Democratic. You can shift that into lean bordering on likely D territory without needing particularly ugly lines. There's pretty much no chance that the 3rd won't be made safe, though.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah lfromnj is right with his easiest pairing in the metro. And said pairing leads to a very clean map, but said map only has 2 Safe D seats in Minneapolis, let alone 4. (although presumably with trends there will indeed be 3 safe Biden seats?)



MN-01: Trump+19; R+7
MN-02: Trump+4; R+3
MN-03: Clinton+2; R+1
MN-04: Clinton+27; D+12
MN-05: Clinton+48; D+22
MN-06: Trump+18; R+6
MN-07: Trump+29; R+12

So yeah, a map with 3 Safe R districts; 2 Safe D districts, 1 tossup and 1 lean R district. Though it depends on how safe you see the 2nd and 3rd districts in this map I suppose but still.

[Former President tack50]

Also decided to make an 8 district map and the end result is very similar. The 3rd district moves from tossup/Lean Dem to clearly Safe D and the 2nd becomes a pure tossup instead of Lean R. Still it's a map that is no better than 4R-3D-1S. The rural districts also generally become more democratic so I guess that makes a comeback in the 1st or 8th districts more likely?



MN-01: Trump+13; R+4
MN-02: Clinton+0.5; R+2
MN-03: Clinton+11; D+3
MN-04: Clinton+29; D+13
MN-05: Clinton+52; D+25
MN-06: Trump+28; R+14
MN-07: Trump+30; R+13
MN-08: Trump+13; R+3

[Virginiá]

Please stay on topic

[lfromnj]

Again theres no "fair" 7 district map that gives 4 Clinton +10 districts. You will have a district based in inner ring Minneapolis which will me a mega sink of around 70% Clinton
Then the Ramsey County district will be almost 60% Clinton and also a sink. The remaining territory in the metro isn't enough to create 2 Clinton +10 districts. The fact of the matter is that Democrats are geographically packed in Minneapolis and St paul and once those 2 districts are taken care of there is no way to reasonably draw any more Safe D seats.
This is just as fair as a fair 39 district Texas map having
like 21 beto districts
3 in the RGV
1 El paso
2 SA
3 Austin
6 Houston+fort/bend
6 DFW.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f3c9c1a2-1725-4561-8afa-890fa72235ce

This is my effort at a Minnesota map based off the hennepin-anoka 2 seats nested thing. There are only 2 county splits. The CDs are as follows:
1: 53-38 Trump, R+5, 49-47 Walz
2: 49-42 Trump, R+5, 48-48 Walz
3: 47-44 Clinton, EVEN, 52-44 Walz
4: 59-32 Clinton, D+12, 64-32 Walz
5: 69-22 Clinton, D+21, 74-23 Walz
6: 63-30 Trump, R+14, 58-38 Johnson
7: 53-39 Trump, R+4, 48-48 Johnson

[Sol]

The question is whether the DFL want a secure 4-3 or are happy with a 3-1-3, with the 2nd as a swing seat trending mildly Democratic. You can shift that into lean bordering on likely D territory without needing particularly ugly lines. There's pretty much no chance that the 3rd won't be made safe, though.

I wonder if the DFL might choose to give Craig the safe seat rather than Phillips, since she seems like a weaker candidate.

[Nyvin]

Making 3 safe D districts isn't hard at all, you don't even need to split Minneapolis.  

https://davesredistricting.org/join/66a93959-37d8-42b3-8879-608ed66e6d91








The MN-2 in this would even be trending D.    I'd honestly be shocked if MN Dems didn't demand 3 safe districts in the 2020 map,  they certainly have the leverage and it's easily obtainable.  Clinton won the yellow district 52.2% to 38.9%.

I assume the three rural districts will need to have Rochester, St Cloud, and Duluth in them as urban anchors,  so putting Rochester in with MN-2 seems out of the question, although that would make a better Dem seat slightly.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The question is whether the DFL want a secure 4-3 or are happy with a 3-1-3, with the 2nd as a swing seat trending mildly Democratic. You can shift that into lean bordering on likely D territory without needing particularly ugly lines. There's pretty much no chance that the 3rd won't be made safe, though.

I wonder if the DFL might choose to give Craig the safe seat rather than Phillips, since she seems like a weaker candidate.

That's difficult to do without seriously ugly lines and/or splitting either Minneapolis or St. Paul. The suburbs on the southern side of the Mississippi are much less Democratic than those north or west of the Twin Cities.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Or you can just start cutting the cities:



MN-01: Trump+16
MN-02: Trump+30
MN-03: Trump+16
MN-04: Clinton+13
MN-05: Clinton+25
MN-06: Clinton+15
MN-07: Clinton+17

[lfromnj]

Or you can just start cutting the cities:



MN-01: Trump+16
MN-02: Trump+30
MN-03: Trump+16
MN-04: Clinton+13
MN-05: Clinton+25
MN-06: Clinton+15
MN-07: Clinton+17

Are you saying for a D gerrymander or a court map. Unsure about a D gerrymander trichopping Minneapolis but I wouldn't be shocked.
A court map would never chop the cities like that. The fact of the matter is that any court map has to accept that Ds are much more packed into those 2 cities than rural Rs are packed.

I wonder if Omar also loses in a Clinton +17 district in a R wave year. I don't think so but I could see it. She probably needs Clinton +20.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Or you can just start cutting the cities:



MN-01: Trump+16
MN-02: Trump+30
MN-03: Trump+16
MN-04: Clinton+13
MN-05: Clinton+25
MN-06: Clinton+15
MN-07: Clinton+17

Are you saying for a D gerrymander or a court map. Unsure about a D gerrymander trichopping Minneapolis but I wouldn't be shocked.
A court map would never chop the cities like that. The fact of the matter is that any court map has to accept that Ds are much more packed into those 2 cities than rural Rs are packed.

Dem gerry, of course. I expect something like this if Dems flip the senate. Otherwise, it'll probably be my 3 non-Twin Cities districts, Minneapolis+Bloomington, rest of Hennepin+Anoka, Ramsey+Washington, and a Southern suburban district.

[lfromnj]

Or you can just start cutting the cities:



MN-01: Trump+16
MN-02: Trump+30
MN-03: Trump+16
MN-04: Clinton+13
MN-05: Clinton+25
MN-06: Clinton+15
MN-07: Clinton+17

Are you saying for a D gerrymander or a court map. Unsure about a D gerrymander trichopping Minneapolis but I wouldn't be shocked.
A court map would never chop the cities like that. The fact of the matter is that any court map has to accept that Ds are much more packed into those 2 cities than rural Rs are packed.

Dem gerry, of course. I expect something like this if Dems flip the senate. Otherwise, it'll probably be my 3 non-Twin Cities districts, Minneapolis+Bloomington, rest of Hennepin+Anoka, Ramsey+Washington, and a Southern suburban district.

Try to check incumbents residencies if you can. Your yellow district would either pit Phillips vs Omar or Omar would have to run in the brown district in a slightly competitive district for her.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Or you can just start cutting the cities:

snip

MN-01: Trump+16
MN-02: Trump+30
MN-03: Trump+16
MN-04: Clinton+13
MN-05: Clinton+25
MN-06: Clinton+15
MN-07: Clinton+17

Are you saying for a D gerrymander or a court map. Unsure about a D gerrymander trichopping Minneapolis but I wouldn't be shocked.
A court map would never chop the cities like that. The fact of the matter is that any court map has to accept that Ds are much more packed into those 2 cities than rural Rs are packed.

Dem gerry, of course. I expect something like this if Dems flip the senate. Otherwise, it'll probably be my 3 non-Twin Cities districts, Minneapolis+Bloomington, rest of Hennepin+Anoka, Ramsey+Washington, and a Southern suburban district.

Try to check incumbents residencies if you can. Your yellow district would either pit Phillips vs Omar or Omar would have to run in the brown district in a slightly competitive district for her.

I honestly thought they might like to screw Omar out of a district. I can adjust that, but do you know exactly where in Minneapolis she lives?

[lfromnj]

Or you can just start cutting the cities:

snip

MN-01: Trump+16
MN-02: Trump+30
MN-03: Trump+16
MN-04: Clinton+13
MN-05: Clinton+25
MN-06: Clinton+15
MN-07: Clinton+17

Are you saying for a D gerrymander or a court map. Unsure about a D gerrymander trichopping Minneapolis but I wouldn't be shocked.
A court map would never chop the cities like that. The fact of the matter is that any court map has to accept that Ds are much more packed into those 2 cities than rural Rs are packed.

Dem gerry, of course. I expect something like this if Dems flip the senate. Otherwise, it'll probably be my 3 non-Twin Cities districts, Minneapolis+Bloomington, rest of Hennepin+Anoka, Ramsey+Washington, and a Southern suburban district.

Try to check incumbents residencies if you can. Your yellow district would either pit Phillips vs Omar or Omar would have to run in the brown district in a slightly competitive district for her.

I honestly thought they might like to screw Omar out of a district. I can adjust that, but do you know exactly where in Minneapolis she lives?

Omar is actually the most establishment one of the squad locally atleast.(Pressley is more establishment at a national level but the establishment in MA was more split about her)
She had full support of the establishment in 2018. Im sure she could move to avoid  a primary with  Dean Phillips but she wouldn't be that happy in a Clinton +17 district.

Sadly I don't know exactly where she lives in the city.

[Oryxslayer]

Sadly I don't know exactly where she lives in the city.

She repp'ed State House 60b which is the NE corner across the Mississippi River. That's all you should need.

[Water Hazard]

Here's an incumbent protection map that gives all 4 MSP Dems a double digit Clinton district that contains their hometowns and does not split Minneapolis or St. Paul:



2: Clinton +10.2
3: Clinton +10.7
4: Clinton +18.0
5: Clinton +31.5

[Devils30]

Dems in a gerrymander should put Duluth in a district that slides down to St. Paul and chop parts of Minneapolis into districts 2 and 3.

[Devils30]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::45e9a5eb-6e4a-4795-b27b-e0b054e4c799

This is what Dems should be doing in MN!