2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota  (Read 39602 times)
Torie
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« Reply #175 on: January 29, 2021, 01:18:05 PM »


No reason to do a three-way split of Hennepin County. Especially one that links the immediate northern suburbs of Minneapolis (including the only majority non-white city in Minnesota outside of a Reservation) with the exurbs.
Which city is that?
Brooklyn Center.

Brooklyn Center is in MN-05 in that map with Minneapolis. It looks like a two-way split of Hennepin to me.

Map was updated after my post.

Why the extra county chop between MN-07 and MN-06, when you can rearrange slightly and do the tiniest of micro-chops of Otter Tail County?


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BRTD
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« Reply #176 on: January 29, 2021, 03:41:38 PM »

So when drawing metro districts I think the important thing to keep in mind is that people in the north and south metros usually don't think of themselves as living in a "Minneapolis suburb" or "St. Paul suburb" unless they live in Hennepin/Ramsey County or one of the cities with "St. Paul" in the name, especially as the highway system setup means commuting to each one is about the same time. (East and West metro is different for obvious reasons.) However they do associate those areas together as a community. So keeping the Twin Cities separate from a community of interest perspective is important, but not the areas immediately to their north or south. But you also don't want to draw districts that wrap around one of the Twin Cities and combines both north and south metro areas because those are considered seperate CoIs.

For the record the 2011 map that DFL legislative leaders proposed actually did contain a south metro district of a string of first ring suburbs both south of Minneapolis and St. Paul. This was the easiest way to draw a strongly DFL suburban district pre-Trump. But I can't see them drawing a district that combines north and south metro areas unless it's an attempt at a pack seat, and I can't see a supposedly neutral court doing it, period.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #177 on: January 29, 2021, 04:43:07 PM »

So when drawing metro districts I think the important thing to keep in mind is that people in the north and south metros usually don't think of themselves as living in a "Minneapolis suburb" or "St. Paul suburb" unless they live in Hennepin/Ramsey County or one of the cities with "St. Paul" in the name, especially as the highway system setup means commuting to each one is about the same time. (East and West metro is different for obvious reasons.) However they do associate those areas together as a community. So keeping the Twin Cities separate from a community of interest perspective is important, but not the areas immediately to their north or south. But you also don't want to draw districts that wrap around one of the Twin Cities and combines both north and south metro areas because those are considered seperate CoIs.

For the record the 2011 map that DFL legislative leaders proposed actually did contain a south metro district of a string of first ring suburbs both south of Minneapolis and St. Paul. This was the easiest way to draw a strongly DFL suburban district pre-Trump. But I can't see them drawing a district that combines north and south metro areas unless it's an attempt at a pack seat, and I can't see a supposedly neutral court doing it, period.

What are the differences between the north and soth metro burbs?
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BRTD
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« Reply #178 on: January 29, 2021, 04:50:28 PM »

So when drawing metro districts I think the important thing to keep in mind is that people in the north and south metros usually don't think of themselves as living in a "Minneapolis suburb" or "St. Paul suburb" unless they live in Hennepin/Ramsey County or one of the cities with "St. Paul" in the name, especially as the highway system setup means commuting to each one is about the same time. (East and West metro is different for obvious reasons.) However they do associate those areas together as a community. So keeping the Twin Cities separate from a community of interest perspective is important, but not the areas immediately to their north or south. But you also don't want to draw districts that wrap around one of the Twin Cities and combines both north and south metro areas because those are considered seperate CoIs.

For the record the 2011 map that DFL legislative leaders proposed actually did contain a south metro district of a string of first ring suburbs both south of Minneapolis and St. Paul. This was the easiest way to draw a strongly DFL suburban district pre-Trump. But I can't see them drawing a district that combines north and south metro areas unless it's an attempt at a pack seat, and I can't see a supposedly neutral court doing it, period.

What are the differences between the north and soth metro burbs?

South metro tends to be a lot more white collar and educated. North metro is actually pretty WWC. This is why for example Anoka County still votes well to the right of Dakota County (and even swung to Trump in 2016!) and that's even with that panhandle that reaches right down to Minneapolis.
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Torie
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« Reply #179 on: January 29, 2021, 05:35:23 PM »
« Edited: February 04, 2021, 11:18:36 AM by Torie »

This thread is a good exhibit as to why using COI beyond compactness and municipal and county lines, and rural versus urban, and metro area demarcations, tends to be something of a sh*t show. One can argue almost anything. JMO. On this issue, nobody ever changes their mind. What I find fun, is that when one COI algorithm starts backfiring on what benefits your favorite party, often well, one just changes their perception as to what COI metrics to use. Cynical old bastard I know. Pay no mind to my demented ramblings.
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Sol
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« Reply #180 on: January 29, 2021, 06:29:30 PM »

IMO Pine County is probably the best place to split between the great northern and St. Cloudish district, unless there's a county with more internally distinct communities of interest.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #181 on: January 29, 2021, 08:14:29 PM »

So should I prioritize keeping two distinct East/West metro districts or North/South?
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #182 on: January 30, 2021, 03:49:01 PM »

So should I prioritize keeping two distinct East/West metro districts or North/South?

East/West > North/South
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jimrtex
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« Reply #183 on: February 02, 2021, 04:50:51 PM »

IMO Pine County is probably the best place to split between the great northern and St. Cloudish district, unless there's a county with more internally distinct communities of interest.
There is no reason to divide smaller counties.

Start with the 5 inner Metro counties, and add in Scott, Carver, (Wright, Sherbourne, Chisago, and Isanti) one at a time until you get as close to the 4/7 of the population as possible. The last four can be any order based on which get you to 4/7.

Simply divide the rest of the state into three districts using whole counties, making swaps as necessary to improve equality.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #184 on: February 03, 2021, 11:42:50 PM »

Have Minor Civil Divisions (townships) been disestablished in Hennepin County?

They are not in the Census Estimates file.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #185 on: February 04, 2021, 04:21:58 PM »
« Edited: February 04, 2021, 04:40:20 PM by jimrtex »

We note that the Metro Area has about 4/7 of the population.

Beginning with the 5-county core, we add Scott and Carver, which gets us to 3.880 district equivalents. Scott is clearly the 6th county, and because 2/3 of its population is in the southeastern panhandle (Chaska, Chanhassen, Victoria, Carver) Carver is the 7th.

Wright and Sherburne are suburban fringe trending into exurban, or in the case of Sherburne moving into the St. Cloud area. Chisago and Isanti are more pure exurban plays.

Sherburne has about the right population to take us to 4 districts. Nonetheless, we add Wright because it makes for a more compact metro area, there are several cities on the Wright-Hennepin line, and keeping Sherburne with Chisago and Isanti provides more population for maintaining the northeast district.

About 70% of Wright's population will be in the Metro districts.



We now simply need to draw a 3-district map and a 4-district map, dividing Wright as we produce the final map.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #186 on: February 04, 2021, 06:59:46 PM »

Division into three districts is straightforward and maintains the current distribution. The metro area (was and is) short of 5/8 of the population, 4/7 is a better fit, so all of the outstate districts push inward toward the Twin Cities.



Population:

MN-1 (South) 0.996
MN-6 (Northeast) 1.004
MN-7 (West) 1.000

I'm trying to maintain district numbers. Since MN-8 can't maintain its number, I let MN-7 maintain its number.

Inclusion of Lake of the Woods in MN-6 slightly overpopulates the district but keeps most of Red Lake Indian Reservation in the district. I would also include the portion of the reservation in Clearwater.

The hearings in Bemidji and Brainerd indicated a preference to maintaining more of the current boundaries with the Red Lake Indian Reservation being in MN-7, and Hubbard and Wadena remaining in MN-6.

My map drawers are working on the change.

The placement of Pipestone and Sibley is based solely on population. If more flexibility is permitted in population deviation, they would be swapped.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #187 on: February 04, 2021, 07:36:37 PM »

We note that the Metro Area has about 4/7 of the population.

Beginning with the 5-county core, we add Scott and Carver, which gets us to 3.880 district equivalents. Scott is clearly the 6th county, and because 2/3 of its population is in the southeastern panhandle (Chaska, Chanhassen, Victoria, Carver) Carver is the 7th.

Wright and Sherburne are suburban fringe trending into exurban, or in the case of Sherburne moving into the St. Cloud area. Chisago and Isanti are more pure exurban plays.

Sherburne has about the right population to take us to 4 districts. Nonetheless, we add Wright because it makes for a more compact metro area, there are several cities on the Wright-Hennepin line, and keeping Sherburne with Chisago and Isanti provides more population for maintaining the northeast district.

About 70% of Wright's population will be in the Metro districts.



We now simply need to draw a 3-district map and a 4-district map, dividing Wright as we produce the final map.

This is absolutely the gold standard instate-outstate split in Minnesota. Wright definitely > Sherburne.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #188 on: February 04, 2021, 11:51:28 PM »

Division into three districts is straightforward and maintains the current distribution. The metro area (was and is) short of 5/8 of the population, 4/7 is a better fit, so all of the outstate districts push inward toward the Twin Cities.



Population:

MN-1 (South) 0.996
MN-6 (Northeast) 1.004
MN-7 (West) 1.000

I'm trying to maintain district numbers. Since MN-8 can't maintain its number, I let MN-7 maintain its number.

Inclusion of Lake of the Woods in MN-6 slightly overpopulates the district but keeps most of Red Lake Indian Reservation in the district. I would also include the portion of the reservation in Clearwater.

The hearings in Bemidji and Brainerd indicated a preference to maintaining more of the current boundaries with the Red Lake Indian Reservation being in MN-7, and Hubbard and Wadena remaining in MN-6.

My map drawers are working on the change.

The placement of Pipestone and Sibley is based solely on population. If more flexibility is permitted in population deviation, they would be swapped.

This map switches Beltrami and Lake of the Woods for Hubbard and Todd to better match the current districts. I put Hubbard and Todd in MN-6 rather than the current Hubbard and Wadena for population regions.

Beltrami and Lake of Woods puts the White Lake and Red Lake reservations together in MN-7. I seem to recall that there was some reason that the Leech Lake reservation wanted to be in a different district. This map also puts the four southwestern townships of Beltrami (Ten Lake, Sugar Bush, Brook Lake, and Moose Lake) into MN-6 so as to keep all of Leech Lake reservation in the district. Presumably, maintaining whole reservations would take precedence over maintaining whole counties.



MN-1 (South) 0.996
MN-6 (Northeast) 1.000
MN-7 (West) + MN-2,3,4,5 (Metro) = 5.004 = average 1.001.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #189 on: February 05, 2021, 01:26:38 AM »

These are my final maps. I think the split of Wright worked particularly well.





MN-1 (South) 0.996
MN-2 (Dakota-Scott-Carver) 0.992 Also includes the southern of Washington similar to the current map; and Eden Prairie and the tiny bit of Chanhassen in Hennepin. This is to balance population. Eden Prairie is a good fit at the Carver-Scott junction, and with Chaska and Chanhassen.
MN-3 (Hennepin-Wright) 0.991 Buffalo is about at the limits of commuting range, as you would spend an 1-1/2 in a car each day to get to and from Minneapolis, and it would be a grind when the roads are snow-packed.
MN-4 (Anoka-Ramsey-Washington) 1.006 Excludes St. Paul and St.Anthony in Ramsey and the southern part of Washington
MN-5 (Twin Cities) 1.014 Brooklyn Park was too large, so I added Robbindale and Crystal instead. Both have an increasing black population which might be approaching 20%. St. Anthony (Hennepin and Ramsey parts) was added to avoid a quadruple split of Hennepin County.
MN-6 (Northeast) 0.998
MN-7 (West) 1.001
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Torie
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« Reply #190 on: February 05, 2021, 10:47:56 AM »

Is this with the 2020 census figures, or the 2018 estimates?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #191 on: February 05, 2021, 10:50:09 AM »

These are my final maps. I think the split of Wright worked particularly well.





MN-1 (South) 0.996
MN-2 (Dakota-Scott-Carver) 0.992 Also includes the southern of Washington similar to the current map; and Eden Prairie and the tiny bit of Chanhassen in Hennepin. This is to balance population. Eden Prairie is a good fit at the Carver-Scott junction, and with Chaska and Chanhassen.
MN-3 (Hennepin-Wright) 0.991 Buffalo is about at the limits of commuting range, as you would spend an 1-1/2 in a car each day to get to and from Minneapolis, and it would be a grind when the roads are snow-packed.
MN-4 (Anoka-Ramsey-Washington) 1.006 Excludes St. Paul and St.Anthony in Ramsey and the southern part of Washington
MN-5 (Twin Cities) 1.014 Brooklyn Park was too large, so I added Robbindale and Crystal instead. Both have an increasing black population which might be approaching 20%. St. Anthony (Hennepin and Ramsey parts) was added to avoid a quadruple split of Hennepin County.
MN-6 (Northeast) 0.998
MN-7 (West) 1.001

Surprisingly I'd be okay with this,  pairing Hennepin with Wright is better than Dakota with Wright at least.

No chance of it happening with St Paul and Minneapolis paired though.
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BRTD
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« Reply #192 on: February 05, 2021, 05:13:18 PM »

So can anyone make an argument as to why they believe Minneapolis and St. Paul will be combined that isn't "I'd prefer it that way" or "I, a person on a message board and not a DFL political insider, think it makes sense"? As in why the the DFL House and Walz would agree to it or the Minnesota Supreme Court would do so despite DFL opposition?
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Torie
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« Reply #193 on: February 05, 2021, 05:54:19 PM »

I would never been so foolish as to suggest BRTD that Minnesotans do not have their odd little fetishes. I follow yours rather religiously these days in fact, and I forgive you for each and every one.   Angel
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jimrtex
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« Reply #194 on: February 06, 2021, 02:24:07 AM »

Is this with the 2020 census figures, or the 2018 estimates?
Are you referring to my maps?

If so, 2019 estimates projected forward to April 1, 2020.

I was thinking about a possible rotation. Moving MN-6 down to the Mississippi River, taking parts of Ramsey just north of St. Paul into MN-5. Putting Brooklyn Center, Robbindale, and Crystal into MN-3, and then pushing MN-2 up into Hennepin (Bloomington?). What do you think?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #195 on: February 06, 2021, 03:00:55 AM »

So can anyone make an argument as to why they believe Minneapolis and St. Paul will be combined that isn't "I'd prefer it that way" or "I, a person on a message board and not a DFL political insider, think it makes sense"? As in why the the DFL House and Walz would agree to it or the Minnesota Supreme Court would do so despite DFL opposition?
Why are you so deferential to Tim Walz and the DFL?
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BRTD
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« Reply #196 on: February 06, 2021, 03:06:01 AM »

So can anyone make an argument as to why they believe Minneapolis and St. Paul will be combined that isn't "I'd prefer it that way" or "I, a person on a message board and not a DFL political insider, think it makes sense"? As in why the the DFL House and Walz would agree to it or the Minnesota Supreme Court would do so despite DFL opposition?
Why are you so deferential to Tim Walz and the DFL?

I'm a former DFL precinct chair and district convention delegate.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #197 on: February 06, 2021, 06:19:15 AM »

Obviously that metro arrangement isn't happening, but that arrangement also splits St. Cloud in half. I think a neater arrangement would be to stick Benton and Sherburne in with MN-7, probably also with Todd and Morrison, in return for giving NW Minnesota to MN-6.
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Torie
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« Reply #198 on: February 06, 2021, 10:16:26 AM »
« Edited: February 06, 2021, 12:53:38 PM by Torie »

Is this with the 2020 census figures, or the 2018 estimates?
Are you referring to my maps?

If so, 2019 estimates projected forward to April 1, 2020.

I was thinking about a possible rotation. Moving MN-6 down to the Mississippi River, taking parts of Ramsey just north of St. Paul into MN-5. Putting Brooklyn Center, Robbindale, and Crystal into MN-3, and then pushing MN-2 up into Hennepin (Bloomington?). What do you think?


I can't really draw what you described, because I don't have your population numbers, and your verbal description confuses me, but if it entails an extra county or municipal chop or both, that would be a negative. My inference from the numbers I saw from replicating the metro part of your posted map, is that among other things, given that  Bloomington has more people than that the south suburbs CD absorbs than it lost in Washington County, suggests that it won't work, and Richfield is wedged in between to boot (see map below).

In other news, someday I hope to post an essay on this COI thing based on intangible factors. Even if real, rather than self interested partisan spin, sometimes it would seem to me to have divergent COI's in a CD, to incentivize compromise, rather than trying to maximize homogeneity.  Other times it would not, if it means one side of the COI divide gets all of the pie, and the other side none, rather than a compromise resolution. The migration towards the "Manicheanization"  of the polity, where each side views the other as just plain evil, that must be stamped out and destroyed, is just not my cup of tea, either for facilitating good policy or to avoid having to endure being exposed to very caustic commentary that reveals little other than ambition and anger.



Again, not knowing your population data, here is another possible concept.

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Stuart98
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« Reply #199 on: February 06, 2021, 11:34:48 AM »

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