Rate PA-8

[Woody]

?

[Gracile]

Did you really just create all those rating categories? LOL.

[The Mamdani Virus]

Lean D

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Lean D, but I would not be surprised if he lost and he's a goner in 2022

[Lognog]

I would saying leaning likely weak lean D maaayyyybbbeeeee likely leaning very weak lean D

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would say a pretty solid lean, and pretty close to a weak likely state.

[libertpaulian]

Weak Likely D.

[wbrocks67]

None of his R challengers have really materialized, plus Biden is on the ballot instead of Sanders, so I'd say Likely D at this point.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Strong Lean D

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Titanium Slight Lean D.

[Orser67]

Ugh I voted Lean R thinking this was the old PA-8 (now PA-1). I think it's actually Lean D. Unless Trump starts polling better, I don't think a long-standing incumbent Dem like Cartwright has that much to worry about (and his district isn't exactly Colin Peterson's in terms of lean, either).

[Badger]

Ugh I voted Lean R thinking this was the old PA-8 (now PA-1). I think it's actually Lean D. Unless Trump starts polling better, I don't think a long-standing incumbent Dem like Cartwright has that much to worry about (and his district isn't exactly Colin Peterson's in terms of lean, either).

Not to derail the thread, but speaking of PA 1, I'm amazed that Fitz has held on in a district Trump did not do well in, even in 2018. The Democrats have had some real recruitment problems here, which is all the more surprising considering they have to have a pretty decent bench there.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

lean tossup safe likely R D Tilt

[ElectionsGuy]

Extremely strong tilt R.

[You Don’t Mess With The Zohran]

Do we really need all those options? Tilt D I guess - though if the Republicans found a better candidate I think it would flip unless Biden was doing very well. He might have some home ground advantage here too.

[zoz]

As a resident of the district, I'm going to go ahead and say Likely D for now. That could change, of course. But none of the Republican candidates really convince me that they can flip the seat. I was hoping for better this year, but this is what we got.

[Bidenworth2020]

Extremely strong tilt R.

Not that this is a horribly unreasonable rating, but is this a joke? Curious based on your phrasing.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Tilt D. Already a Trump +10 district, and although Cartwright is a "strong incumbent" polarization is a thing

[HarrisonL]

It is a good seat for Republicans on paper, but Cartwright is a strong incumbent with weak opposition. Lean-Likely D, very similar situation to Ron Kind, who is even safer.

Fischbach in MN-7 is the best Republican chance to flip one of these strong Trump seats held by a Democrat. Peterson will narrowly lose to her this year.

[zoz]

Ok my prediction for the GOP primary is as follows:

1.Teddy Daniels
2.Jim Bognet
3.Earl Granville
4.Mike Marsicano
5.Harry Haas
6.Mike Cammisa

For most of the campaign I felt that Granville would win simply due to the geographic spread, but lately Daniels' campaign seems to have some last-minute momentum behind it. Bognet also has lots of money (compared to the others) behind him which is pushing him up, and I think he was also just endorsed by Lou Barletta. However, I wouldn't be too surprised if Haas or Marsicano end further up the list. As for percentages, I have no f'n clue but I don't see anyone getting above ~35%. We probably won't know who wins for sure until Wednesday or even Thursday due to the mail-in/coronavirus situation, but it'll be an interesting end to an interesting (although somewhat under-the-radar) race for sure.

[zoz]

Well, my prediction was fairly spot on. Looks like Bognet is going up against Cartwright, but some of the other candidates aren't very fond of him at all. I'm keeping this Likely D for now, but Bognet could do well in fundraising down the road, possibly tightening the race.

[zoz]

Well, my prediction was fairly spot on. Looks like Bognet is going up against Cartwright, but some of the other candidates aren't very fond of him at all, which could hurt his campaign. I'm keeping this Likely D for now, but Bognet could do well in fundraising down the road, possibly tightening the race.

[We Live in Black and White]

Moving this to Likely D. The GOP primary being a nightmare only helps Cartwright.

[ND, SD, MT, WY, and ID statehood was and is unconstitutional]

Safe D
Republicans bungled the primary here giving Cartwright a free re-election.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Lean D.

This district is voting for Trump by between 10-15 points. Polarization is a thing, but Rs are really ing this one up.