Kelly is not going to win by double digits, but at this point, I think it's very plausible that he outperforms Sinema, and wins by mid single digits (possibly around 4-7% or so). He is certainly going to outperform Biden, and will probably carry him over the finish line here, rather than vice versa. Arizona can be legitimately rated as Lean Democratic now.
Kelly isn't going to outperform Sinema. If you look purely on ideology Kelly is a lot more liberal compared to Moderate Kyrsten. This Race will tighten quite a bit as we get into the Fall.
Right now I'd say Biden wins the State by less than a Percentage Point and Kelly by slightly less than 3 Points, about 2.8 Percentage Points or so.
There is a new AZ High Ground Poll out today showing Biden ahead 47-45 over Trump with 8 % Undecided. I suspect that they will have Senate Numbers tomorrow.
OH Predictive Insights has been drinking too much Kool Aid as of late. No way was Biden up 7 Points and Kelly up 13.
That's not supported by anything we've seen but okay