AZ-OHPI: Kelly +13

[2016]

Kelly is not going to win by double digits, but at this point, I think it's very plausible that he outperforms Sinema, and wins by mid single digits (possibly around 4-7% or so). He is certainly going to outperform Biden, and will probably carry him over the finish line here, rather than vice versa. Arizona can be legitimately rated as Lean Democratic now.

Kelly isn't going to outperform Sinema. If you look purely on ideology Kelly is a lot more liberal compared to Moderate Kyrsten. This Race will tighten quite a bit as we get into the Fall.
Right now I'd say Biden wins the State by less than a Percentage Point and Kelly by slightly less than 3 Points, about 2.8 Percentage Points or so.

There is a new AZ High Ground Poll out today showing Biden ahead 47-45 over Trump with 8 % Undecided. I suspect that they will have Senate Numbers tomorrow.

OH Predictive Insights has been drinking too much Kool Aid as of late. No way was Biden up 7 Points and Kelly up 13.

[2016]

Likely D.

Ducey really sabotaged McSally.

He may run for this seat in 2022 or he has eyes on 2024 or 2028

This has nothing to with Ducey. He didn't have much of a choice here. There weren't many Republicans in AZ who were willing to run for 2 Election Cycles in a row (2020 and 2022). The only other choice would have been State Tresurer Kimberly Yee but she just got elected in 2018 to that Office. Ducey just took the hand he was dealt with and it didn't work out.

It could also been a Political Calculus of his own knowing that in a potential Biden Midterm in 2022, when Democratic Enthisiasm will be teetered off a bit he has a better chance.
I'm sure if we have had a President Kasich, Jeb Bush or Rubio Ducey would have run here.

[2016]

Kelly is not going to win by double digits, but at this point, I think it's very plausible that he outperforms Sinema, and wins by mid single digits (possibly around 4-7% or so). He is certainly going to outperform Biden, and will probably carry him over the finish line here, rather than vice versa. Arizona can be legitimately rated as Lean Democratic now.

Kelly isn't going to outperform Sinema. If you look purely on ideology Kelly is a lot more liberal compared to Moderate Kyrsten. This Race will tighten quite a bit as we get into the Fall.
Right now I'd say Biden wins the State by less than a Percentage Point and Kelly by slightly less than 3 Points, about 2.8 Percentage Points or so.

There is a new AZ High Ground Poll out today showing Biden ahead 47-45 over Trump with 8 % Undecided. I suspect that they will have Senate Numbers tomorrow.

OH Predictive Insights has been drinking too much Kool Aid as of late. No way was Biden up 7 Points and Kelly up 13.

That's not supported by anything we've seen but okay

Sinema beat McSally by 55.900 Votes in 2018 and you as well as Calthrina950 telling me that he wins by more than that? Give me a Break!