AZ-OHPI: Kelly +13
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  AZ-OHPI: Kelly +13
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Author Topic: AZ-OHPI: Kelly +13  (Read 2097 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: May 19, 2020, 09:29:43 AM »

OH Predictive Insights, May 9-11, 600 LV

Kelly 51
McSally 38

In Maricopa: Kelly 54, McSally 36
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2020, 09:32:00 AM »

omg

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2020, 09:33:23 AM »

The crosstabs are junky, similar to the prez poll. But AZ-Sen is Lean D as we speak.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2020, 09:51:16 AM »

Not quite a Blanching but McSally is definitely in Kriking territory.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2020, 09:51:32 AM »

Interesting though how Biden fell a bit from their last poll, but Kelly ended up GROWING 4%.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2020, 09:53:01 AM »

Interesting though how Biden fell a bit from their last poll, but Kelly ended up GROWING 4%.

I think Kelly will do better than Biden on election day. By 1-2 pts.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2020, 10:11:30 AM »

Lean D flip.
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S019
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« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2020, 10:25:25 AM »

McSally is done, lol

Lean D, closer to Likely than Tossup, at this point
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2020, 11:25:09 AM »

RIP McSally.

Again.
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here2view
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2020, 11:32:45 AM »

Down by 18 in Maricopa? LOL.
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2020, 11:36:53 AM »

Such a McSilly idea to appoint a proven loser to this seat.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2020, 01:25:53 PM »

Honestly, hook this right into my veins.

Who would've predicted 5 years ago that Arizona was about to be on the cusp of electing 2 Democratic Senators?
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2020, 01:43:39 PM »

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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2020, 02:22:02 PM »

!!!!!!
I dont expect Kelly to win by double digits but its
Obvious McSally is done.
+
Bye bye David Schweikert!
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2020, 08:39:41 PM »

A bit too D-friendly, but McSally is not winning if she’s underperforming Trump by 6, lol.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2020, 11:33:19 PM »

Kelly is not going to win by double digits, but at this point, I think it's very plausible that he outperforms Sinema, and wins by mid single digits (possibly around 4-7% or so). He is certainly going to outperform Biden, and will probably carry him over the finish line here, rather than vice versa. Arizona can be legitimately rated as Lean Democratic now.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2020, 05:23:43 PM »

What are y'all smoking?  Anything >10 is Strong D...
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Suburbia
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« Reply #17 on: May 26, 2020, 05:24:40 PM »

Likely D.

Ducey really sabotaged McSally.

He may run for this seat in 2022 or he has eyes on 2024 or 2028
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #18 on: May 26, 2020, 05:35:50 PM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by OH Predictive Insights on 2020-05-11

Summary: D: 51%, R: 38%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #19 on: May 26, 2020, 05:37:21 PM »

Kelly is not going to win by double digits, but at this point, I think it's very plausible that he outperforms Sinema, and wins by mid single digits (possibly around 4-7% or so). He is certainly going to outperform Biden, and will probably carry him over the finish line here, rather than vice versa. Arizona can be legitimately rated as Lean Democratic now.
Kelly isn't going to outperform Sinema. If you look purely on ideology Kelly is a lot more liberal compared to Moderate Kyrsten. This Race will tighten quite a bit as we get into the Fall.
Right now I'd say Biden wins the State by less than a Percentage Point and Kelly by slightly less than 3 Points, about 2.8 Percentage Points or so.

There is a new AZ High Ground Poll out today showing Biden ahead 47-45 over Trump with 8 % Undecided. I suspect that they will have Senate Numbers tomorrow.

OH Predictive Insights has been drinking too much Kool Aid as of late. No way was Biden up 7 Points and Kelly up 13.
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« Reply #20 on: May 26, 2020, 05:47:38 PM »

Likely D.

Ducey really sabotaged McSally.

He may run for this seat in 2022 or he has eyes on 2024 or 2028

This has nothing to with Ducey. He didn't have much of a choice here. There weren't many Republicans in AZ who were willing to run for 2 Election Cycles in a row (2020 and 2022). The only other choice would have been State Tresurer Kimberly Yee but she just got elected in 2018 to that Office. Ducey just took the hand he was dealt with and it didn't work out.

It could also been a Political Calculus of his own knowing that in a potential Biden Midterm in 2022, when Democratic Enthisiasm will be teetered off a bit he has a better chance.
I'm sure if we have had a President Kasich, Jeb Bush or Rubio Ducey would have run here.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: May 26, 2020, 06:38:20 PM »

Kelly is not going to win by double digits, but at this point, I think it's very plausible that he outperforms Sinema, and wins by mid single digits (possibly around 4-7% or so). He is certainly going to outperform Biden, and will probably carry him over the finish line here, rather than vice versa. Arizona can be legitimately rated as Lean Democratic now.
Kelly isn't going to outperform Sinema. If you look purely on ideology Kelly is a lot more liberal compared to Moderate Kyrsten. This Race will tighten quite a bit as we get into the Fall.
Right now I'd say Biden wins the State by less than a Percentage Point and Kelly by slightly less than 3 Points, about 2.8 Percentage Points or so.

There is a new AZ High Ground Poll out today showing Biden ahead 47-45 over Trump with 8 % Undecided. I suspect that they will have Senate Numbers tomorrow.

OH Predictive Insights has been drinking too much Kool Aid as of late. No way was Biden up 7 Points and Kelly up 13.

That's not supported by anything we've seen but okay
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« Reply #22 on: May 26, 2020, 07:36:42 PM »

Kelly is not going to win by double digits, but at this point, I think it's very plausible that he outperforms Sinema, and wins by mid single digits (possibly around 4-7% or so). He is certainly going to outperform Biden, and will probably carry him over the finish line here, rather than vice versa. Arizona can be legitimately rated as Lean Democratic now.
Kelly isn't going to outperform Sinema. If you look purely on ideology Kelly is a lot more liberal compared to Moderate Kyrsten. This Race will tighten quite a bit as we get into the Fall.
Right now I'd say Biden wins the State by less than a Percentage Point and Kelly by slightly less than 3 Points, about 2.8 Percentage Points or so.

There is a new AZ High Ground Poll out today showing Biden ahead 47-45 over Trump with 8 % Undecided. I suspect that they will have Senate Numbers tomorrow.

OH Predictive Insights has been drinking too much Kool Aid as of late. No way was Biden up 7 Points and Kelly up 13.

That's not supported by anything we've seen but okay
Sinema beat McSally by 55.900 Votes in 2018 and you as well as Calthrina950 telling me that he wins by more than that? Give me a Break!
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #23 on: May 27, 2020, 11:36:09 AM »

Kelly is not going to win by double digits, but at this point, I think it's very plausible that he outperforms Sinema, and wins by mid single digits (possibly around 4-7% or so). He is certainly going to outperform Biden, and will probably carry him over the finish line here, rather than vice versa. Arizona can be legitimately rated as Lean Democratic now.
Kelly isn't going to outperform Sinema. If you look purely on ideology Kelly is a lot more liberal compared to Moderate Kyrsten. This Race will tighten quite a bit as we get into the Fall.
Right now I'd say Biden wins the State by less than a Percentage Point and Kelly by slightly less than 3 Points, about 2.8 Percentage Points or so.

There is a new AZ High Ground Poll out today showing Biden ahead 47-45 over Trump with 8 % Undecided. I suspect that they will have Senate Numbers tomorrow.

OH Predictive Insights has been drinking too much Kool Aid as of late. No way was Biden up 7 Points and Kelly up 13.

Are you sure about this? With every new successive poll, it seems as if Kelly's numbers against McSally have increased, not decreased, and Maricopa County in particular, seems to have trended further against Republicans since the 2018 midterms. Moreover, Kelly's status as a former "astronaut" gives him a kind of credibility, if you will, with independent voters who may otherwise be swayed by McSally's military record. And McSally has done nothing to alleviate the concerns of moderates who either backed Sinema, or may have supported her reluctantly last time.
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Blair
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« Reply #24 on: May 28, 2020, 12:57:43 PM »

And Sinema was a liberal anti-war activist who hated America you know...
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