AZ-OHPI: Kelly +13

[MT Treasurer]

Imagine actually believing that Kyrsten Sinema is the only reason Democrats picked up AZ-SEN 2018.

Anyway, moving this from Lean to Likely D.

[woodley park]

Kelly is not going to win by double digits, but at this point, I think it's very plausible that he outperforms Sinema, and wins by mid single digits (possibly around 4-7% or so). He is certainly going to outperform Biden, and will probably carry him over the finish line here, rather than vice versa. Arizona can be legitimately rated as Lean Democratic now.

Kelly isn't going to outperform Sinema. If you look purely on ideology Kelly is a lot more liberal compared to Moderate Kyrsten. This Race will tighten quite a bit as we get into the Fall.
Right now I'd say Biden wins the State by less than a Percentage Point and Kelly by slightly less than 3 Points, about 2.8 Percentage Points or so.

There is a new AZ High Ground Poll out today showing Biden ahead 47-45 over Trump with 8 % Undecided. I suspect that they will have Senate Numbers tomorrow.

OH Predictive Insights has been drinking too much Kool Aid as of late. No way was Biden up 7 Points and Kelly up 13.

Are you sure about this? With every new successive poll, it seems as if Kelly's numbers against McSally have increased, not decreased, and Maricopa County in particular, seems to have trended further against Republicans since the 2018 midterms. Moreover, Kelly's status as a former "astronaut" gives him a kind of credibility, if you will, with independent voters who may otherwise be swayed by McSally's military record. And McSally has done nothing to alleviate the concerns of moderates who either backed Sinema, or may have supported her reluctantly last time.

What do you think explains such sudden shifts in Maricopa County? Is it new voters entering the fray, as older voters die out? Or is it same set of people switching the way they believe about the Republican Party?

[SevenEleven]

Kelly is not going to win by double digits, but at this point, I think it's very plausible that he outperforms Sinema, and wins by mid single digits (possibly around 4-7% or so). He is certainly going to outperform Biden, and will probably carry him over the finish line here, rather than vice versa. Arizona can be legitimately rated as Lean Democratic now.

Kelly isn't going to outperform Sinema. If you look purely on ideology Kelly is a lot more liberal compared to Moderate Kyrsten. This Race will tighten quite a bit as we get into the Fall.
Right now I'd say Biden wins the State by less than a Percentage Point and Kelly by slightly less than 3 Points, about 2.8 Percentage Points or so.

There is a new AZ High Ground Poll out today showing Biden ahead 47-45 over Trump with 8 % Undecided. I suspect that they will have Senate Numbers tomorrow.

OH Predictive Insights has been drinking too much Kool Aid as of late. No way was Biden up 7 Points and Kelly up 13.

Are you sure about this? With every new successive poll, it seems as if Kelly's numbers against McSally have increased, not decreased, and Maricopa County in particular, seems to have trended further against Republicans since the 2018 midterms. Moreover, Kelly's status as a former "astronaut" gives him a kind of credibility, if you will, with independent voters who may otherwise be swayed by McSally's military record. And McSally has done nothing to alleviate the concerns of moderates who either backed Sinema, or may have supported her reluctantly last time.

What do you think explains such sudden shifts in Maricopa County? Is it new voters entering the fray, as older voters die out? Or is it same set of people switching the way they believe about the Republican Party?

AOTA

[Calthrina950]

Kelly is not going to win by double digits, but at this point, I think it's very plausible that he outperforms Sinema, and wins by mid single digits (possibly around 4-7% or so). He is certainly going to outperform Biden, and will probably carry him over the finish line here, rather than vice versa. Arizona can be legitimately rated as Lean Democratic now.

Kelly isn't going to outperform Sinema. If you look purely on ideology Kelly is a lot more liberal compared to Moderate Kyrsten. This Race will tighten quite a bit as we get into the Fall.
Right now I'd say Biden wins the State by less than a Percentage Point and Kelly by slightly less than 3 Points, about 2.8 Percentage Points or so.

There is a new AZ High Ground Poll out today showing Biden ahead 47-45 over Trump with 8 % Undecided. I suspect that they will have Senate Numbers tomorrow.

OH Predictive Insights has been drinking too much Kool Aid as of late. No way was Biden up 7 Points and Kelly up 13.

Are you sure about this? With every new successive poll, it seems as if Kelly's numbers against McSally have increased, not decreased, and Maricopa County in particular, seems to have trended further against Republicans since the 2018 midterms. Moreover, Kelly's status as a former "astronaut" gives him a kind of credibility, if you will, with independent voters who may otherwise be swayed by McSally's military record. And McSally has done nothing to alleviate the concerns of moderates who either backed Sinema, or may have supported her reluctantly last time.

What do you think explains such sudden shifts in Maricopa County? Is it new voters entering the fray, as older voters die out? Or is it same set of people switching the way they believe about the Republican Party?

It's probably a combination of all these factors. Demographic changes (i.e. the growth in the Hispanic population, the influx of younger and more liberal voters) are helping to fuel Maricopa County's shift, combined with the defection of moderate or independent suburbanites who had previously voted Republican. 2016 was the first presidential election in almost seventy years in which Maricopa County voted to the left of the statewide average. The county voted to the right of the statewide average for John McCain in his last reelection that same year. Two years later, Maricopa voted to the left of the statewide average in every race; even Doug Ducey did worse there than he did in Arizona as a whole. It's clear that McSally is losing the votes of "McCain Republicans" who have also soured upon Trump and upon the Party in general.