Kentucky (PPP): McConnell +3 on Generic D
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  Kentucky (PPP): McConnell +3 on Generic D
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Author Topic: Kentucky (PPP): McConnell +3 on Generic D  (Read 2092 times)
brucejoel99
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« Reply #25 on: May 20, 2020, 07:42:01 PM »

What's particularly sad about this: it shows that the right candidate could take him out. Rocky Adkins would get at least 45% vs. Mitch, & I'd even go so far as to say that he'd actually have a shot at winning this too, especially given the GOP's recent slew of failures & Mitch's notorious unpopularity (particularly among ancestral Democrats in eastern KY).

But even if/when Biden wins, I doubt he's gonna be able to push McGrath over the finish line, & once the Democrats are back in power, there won't be another chance as good as this one to kick Mitch out (at least, since I doubt that there'll be another virus under a Republican president that'll particularly expose his abject incompetence). This is the perfect time to have fielded a genuinely strong candidate against him, & the party failed.
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Pollster
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« Reply #26 on: May 20, 2020, 08:08:46 PM »

What's particularly sad about this: it shows that the right candidate could take him out. Rocky Adkins would get at least 45% vs. Mitch, & I'd even go so far as to say that he'd actually have a shot at winning this too, especially given the GOP's recent slew of failures & Mitch's notorious unpopularity (particularly among ancestral Democrats in eastern KY).

But even if/when Biden wins, I doubt he's gonna be able to push McGrath over the finish line, & once the Democrats are back in power, there won't be another chance as good as this one to kick Mitch out (at least, since I doubt that there'll be another virus under a Republican president that'll particularly expose his abject incompetence). This is the perfect time to have fielded a genuinely strong candidate against him, & the party failed.

While I agree that McGrath lost a winnable race in 2018 and has been gaffe-prone in this one, it's easy to forget that KY-06 was one of the toughest districts that Democrats actually made competitive in 2018 (Trump did better here than in OK-05, SC-01, ME-02, and UT-04 in the two party vote, and no district where Trump got >55% went D besides MN-07 for obvious reasons) and McGrath did it as a novice candidate with no political resume or vote-getting experience, beating a popular local mayor in a primary to do it and without running any negative ads. Agreed she's not the best possible recruit, but hard to say she's not formidable.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #27 on: May 20, 2020, 08:28:41 PM »

What's particularly sad about this: it shows that the right candidate could take him out. Rocky Adkins would get at least 45% vs. Mitch, & I'd even go so far as to say that he'd actually have a shot at winning this too, especially given the GOP's recent slew of failures & Mitch's notorious unpopularity (particularly among ancestral Democrats in eastern KY).

But even if/when Biden wins, I doubt he's gonna be able to push McGrath over the finish line, & once the Democrats are back in power, there won't be another chance as good as this one to kick Mitch out (at least, since I doubt that there'll be another virus under a Republican president that'll particularly expose his abject incompetence). This is the perfect time to have fielded a genuinely strong candidate against him, & the party failed.

While I agree that McGrath lost a winnable race in 2018 and has been gaffe-prone in this one, it's easy to forget that KY-06 was one of the toughest districts that Democrats actually made competitive in 2018 (Trump did better here than in OK-05, SC-01, ME-02, and UT-04 in the two party vote, and no district where Trump got >55% went D besides MN-07 for obvious reasons) and McGrath did it as a novice candidate with no political resume or vote-getting experience, beating a popular local mayor in a primary to do it and without running any negative ads. Agreed she's not the best possible recruit, but hard to say she's not formidable.

This makes Conor Lamb’s win in the special election so impressive. It was by far the reddest House seat that Democrats gained in 2018, and Trump got 58% in that seat pre-redraw.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #28 on: May 20, 2020, 08:33:11 PM »

McGrath needs to drop out and give her money to the Democratic parties in GA, TX, and NC.

The amount of money she has is obscene. Even Harrison I could understand the money because it has a significant Black population. Yall are just lighting money on fire in this white, rural, under educated state. I can't.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #29 on: May 26, 2020, 10:13:16 PM »

You people are insane.  This pandemic has put the entire country on its knees and Republicans are going to get wiped out left and right.  The entire party has covered for and enabled Trump since day 1 and they're dug-in with him now, especially Mitch. 

Keep in mind the virus hasn't even peaked yet in places like KY, AL, and MS.  Everyone thinks this is the second wave that has hit Alabama & other rural places this past week, but it isn't.  This is still the first wave.  NYC is not the entire country.  The rural South is about to get completely wrecked by this thing, and everyone is opening up their states like a bunch of morons.  McConnell and all of them will be held to account in November.  This will be a toss-up plain and simple.
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
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« Reply #30 on: May 27, 2020, 10:57:02 AM »

You people are insane.  This pandemic has put the entire country on its knees and Republicans are going to get wiped out left and right.  The entire party has covered for and enabled Trump since day 1 and they're dug-in with him now, especially Mitch. 

Keep in mind the virus hasn't even peaked yet in places like KY, AL, and MS.  Everyone thinks this is the second wave that has hit Alabama & other rural places this past week, but it isn't.  This is still the first wave.  NYC is not the entire country.  The rural South is about to get completely wrecked by this thing, and everyone is opening up their states like a bunch of morons.  McConnell and all of them will be held to account in November.  This will be a toss-up plain and simple.

The KY Republican senate nominee could actually be COVID-19 itself and the race would still be Safe R.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #31 on: May 27, 2020, 11:39:37 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2020, 12:27:18 PM by Calthrina950 »

You people are insane.  This pandemic has put the entire country on its knees and Republicans are going to get wiped out left and right. The entire party has covered for and enabled Trump since day 1 and they're dug-in with him now, especially Mitch.  

Keep in mind the virus hasn't even peaked yet in places like KY, AL, and MS.  Everyone thinks this is the second wave that has hit Alabama & other rural places this past week, but it isn't.  This is still the first wave.  NYC is not the entire country.  The rural South is about to get completely wrecked by this thing, and everyone is opening up their states like a bunch of morons.  McConnell and all of them will be held to account in November.  This will be a toss-up plain and simple.

What evidence do you have for this? Trump's approval ratings have receded somewhat since the pandemic began, but they are still hovering in the lower to mid 40s, where they have been throughout most of his presidency. The Republican base is blaming Democrats and the mainstream media for what they perceive as an "overblown" crisis, and their staunch support for Trump has only been reinforced in the meantime. Moreover, current polls suggest that while Trump is trailing Biden, he is nowhere close to getting "blown out". Like I've said before, this country is too polarized for Trump to lose by a landslide margin.

I've also explained before that Beshear's victory last year in Kentucky doesn't tell us anything about this race, and McGrath is not the strongest candidate Democrats could have put up against McConnell. She'll be lucky to come within single digits, much less win. And if even "Generic Democrat" cannot beat McConnell, then nobody can. As of right now, this race is still Safe Republican.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #32 on: May 27, 2020, 02:53:18 PM »

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-05-15

Summary: D: 44%, R: 47%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #33 on: May 27, 2020, 03:04:32 PM »

You people are insane.  This pandemic has put the entire country on its knees and Republicans are going to get wiped out left and right. The entire party has covered for and enabled Trump since day 1 and they're dug-in with him now, especially Mitch. 

Keep in mind the virus hasn't even peaked yet in places like KY, AL, and MS.  Everyone thinks this is the second wave that has hit Alabama & other rural places this past week, but it isn't.  This is still the first wave.  NYC is not the entire country.  The rural South is about to get completely wrecked by this thing, and everyone is opening up their states like a bunch of morons.  McConnell and all of them will be held to account in November.  This will be a toss-up plain and simple.

What evidence do you have for this? Trump's approval ratings have receded somewhat since the pandemic began, but they are still hovering in the lower to mid 40s, where they have been throughout most of his presidency. The Republican base is blaming Democrats and the mainstream media for what they perceive as an "overblown" crisis, and their staunch support for Trump has only been reinforced in the meantime. Moreover, current polls suggest that while Trump is trailing Biden, he is nowhere close to getting "blown out". Like I've said before, this country is too polarized for Trump to lose by a landslide margin.

I've also explained before that Beshear's victory last year in Kentucky doesn't tell us anything about this race, and McGrath is not the strongest candidate Democrats could have put up against McConnell. She'll be lucky to come within single digits, much less win. And if even "Generic Democrat" cannot beat McConnell, then nobody can. As of right now, this race is still Safe Republican.

Except actual data tells us that it's toss-up or lean-Republican at most.

As for the rest of your post, which is an opinion -- all I can do is remind you that unemployment is at Great Depression levels already, and the vast majority of the country hasn't been scratched by the coronavirus.  It's only just now starting to ramp up in rural areas.  In two weeks the numbers are going to explode and bring every state to its knees because of idiotic decision-making by leadership to open things back up.

As for what the Republican base believes? It's irrelevant.  The base has shrunk so much it's not representative of anything beyond former tea party fanatics and neonazis. Elections are almost always decided by the middle and that's still going to be the case in November when the country resembles West Africa circa late 2014.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #34 on: May 27, 2020, 03:41:05 PM »

You people are insane.  This pandemic has put the entire country on its knees and Republicans are going to get wiped out left and right. The entire party has covered for and enabled Trump since day 1 and they're dug-in with him now, especially Mitch. 

Keep in mind the virus hasn't even peaked yet in places like KY, AL, and MS.  Everyone thinks this is the second wave that has hit Alabama & other rural places this past week, but it isn't.  This is still the first wave.  NYC is not the entire country.  The rural South is about to get completely wrecked by this thing, and everyone is opening up their states like a bunch of morons.  McConnell and all of them will be held to account in November.  This will be a toss-up plain and simple.

What evidence do you have for this? Trump's approval ratings have receded somewhat since the pandemic began, but they are still hovering in the lower to mid 40s, where they have been throughout most of his presidency. The Republican base is blaming Democrats and the mainstream media for what they perceive as an "overblown" crisis, and their staunch support for Trump has only been reinforced in the meantime. Moreover, current polls suggest that while Trump is trailing Biden, he is nowhere close to getting "blown out". Like I've said before, this country is too polarized for Trump to lose by a landslide margin.

I've also explained before that Beshear's victory last year in Kentucky doesn't tell us anything about this race, and McGrath is not the strongest candidate Democrats could have put up against McConnell. She'll be lucky to come within single digits, much less win. And if even "Generic Democrat" cannot beat McConnell, then nobody can. As of right now, this race is still Safe Republican.

Except actual data tells us that it's toss-up or lean-Republican at most.

As for the rest of your post, which is an opinion -- all I can do is remind you that unemployment is at Great Depression levels already, and the vast majority of the country hasn't been scratched by the coronavirus.  It's only just now starting to ramp up in rural areas.  In two weeks the numbers are going to explode and bring every state to its knees because of idiotic decision-making by leadership to open things back up.

As for what the Republican base believes? It's irrelevant.  The base has shrunk so much it's not representative of anything beyond former tea party fanatics and neonazis. Elections are almost always decided by the middle and that's still going to be the case in November when the country resembles West Africa circa late 2014.

The Republican base is a minority, but to say that they will have no influence on the election, is in my view a mistake. Trump's supporters are energized to vote for him, and they will turnout no matter what. I would also say that it is erroneous to describe them as all being "tea party fanatics" and "neonazis"; you can count among them many of the Obama-Trump voters, a good number of whom voted Democratic in downballot races, both in 2016 and 2018, and are yet returning to Trump. I think such blanket appellations being applied to people serves only to intensify political polarization, regardless of which side they come from.

I do not deny the economic impacts which the coronavirus pandemic and the associated lockdowns will have upon the election. Nor will I deny that we may be faced with a potential second wave. But if you believe that these conditions will cause Trump to lose by double digits and result in Biden flipping hundreds of counties across the country, then you are sorely mistaken. The Great Recession back in 2008 gave Obama a decisive victory, but McCain still garnered 45% of the popular vote and won over twenty states. And Trump's controversies from last time did not prevent him from getting into the White House.

And as we also know, the urban-rural divide has only intensified in recent years, with the 2018 midterms and the subsequent special elections being proof of that. Trump's long-ago remark that he could "shoot someone on 6th Avenue and not lose any voters" remains relevant now. Finally, if you look at the RCP poll average (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html), you'll notice that Biden is leading right now, as I stated before. However, in most of the polls his lead is within single digits, and in most of them he is not garnering any higher of a percentage than what Hillary Clinton received last time. The polls indicate that if the election were held right now, Biden would win, but it would still be a relatively close race. Much can change over the next several months, but I doubt that any changes we see will produce a major political realignment. The country isn't there, and Biden is not the candidate who would be able to deliver such a change.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #35 on: May 27, 2020, 04:05:52 PM »

lol the last person to win by double digits was Reagan in '84, so of course I'm not banking on Biden winning by 10%.  I think he could get 7-9% though.  As for the rest of the tl;dr, I'm not expecting a realignment election.  I think Biden is a sh** candidate and I'm personally going to be biting my lip when I vote for the freak.  But what it WILL be is a complete rejection of the Trump presidency, GOP leadership, and a show of desperation for a return of normalcy.
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