MI 06 Victoria Research (D)- Biden +3

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden 47
Trump 44

This district voted 52-42 Trump in 2016.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200511_MI.pdf

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Dem internal.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Dem internal but even skewing this to be say trump+4 or 5 isn't good considering that it voted for him by double digits and Trump needs every voter he can get in michigan

[Sbane]

Dem internal.

So maybe the swing from 2016-2020 is only D+5 or so as opposed to the 13 point swing this poll implies. How is that good news for Trump? And this isn't a district in suburban Detroit, this is southwest Michigan. How is Trump winning Michigan again if he loses ground in a district like this?

[Alben Barkley]

Dem internal.

So maybe the swing from 2016-2020 is only D+5 or so as opposed to the 13 point swing this poll implies. How is that good news for Trump? And this isn't a district in suburban Detroit, this is southwest Michigan. How is Trump winning Michigan again if he loses ground in a district like this?

It would be a more productive use of your time to literally slam your head against a brick wall repeatedly than it is to argue with this particular user. God forbid you use facts and logic to do so. Not sure what else there is to be expected from someone who names himself after a mediocre senator who lost his seat, though. Along with two other mediocre Republican failures.

[MT Treasurer]

SENATE: Peters +1
40% Gary Peters (D, inc.)
39% John James (R)

HOUSE: Hoadley +1
38% Jon Hoadley (D)
37% Fred Upton (R, inc.)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Dem internal.

So maybe the swing from 2016-2020 is only D+5 or so as opposed to the 13 point swing this poll implies. How is that good news for Trump? And this isn't a district in suburban Detroit, this is southwest Michigan. How is Trump winning Michigan again if he loses ground in a district like this?

It's certainly not good news for Trump, and I didn't say anything of the sort. At the same time though, I'd rather not have the forum inundated with fire "MI-06 is a tossup" takes.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Dem internal.

So maybe the swing from 2016-2020 is only D+5 or so as opposed to the 13 point swing this poll implies. How is that good news for Trump? And this isn't a district in suburban Detroit, this is southwest Michigan. How is Trump winning Michigan again if he loses ground in a district like this?

It would be a more productive use of your time to literally slam your head against a brick wall repeatedly than it is to argue with this particular user. God forbid you use facts and logic to do so. Not sure what else there is to be expected from someone who names himself after a mediocre senator who lost his seat, though. Along with two other mediocre Republican failures.

Lol, imagine thinking I actually like Dean Heller

[President Johnson]

Lmao, I read MI and Biden +3 in a Democratic pollster and got nervous.

[AGA]

I like these county/congressional district polls...we don't get too many of them.

[SnowLabrador]

Also in this poll, Gary Peters is running 2 points behind Biden. This isn't good news for Peters.

[Pericles]

Great poll for Biden, he'd clearly be up big in Michigan based on this.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Also in this poll, Gary Peters is running 2 points behind Biden. This isn't good news for Peters.

Considering he's leading statewide by high single digits, he's in good shape to win. He's going to match or exceed Stabenow's 2018 margin.

[pbrower2a]

It's about Michigan's sixth Congressional district, which includes Kalamazoo, St. Joseph, Cass, Berrien, Van Buren, and Allegan Counties. Aside from Kalamazoo-Portage, the 'micropolitan' area of St. Josph and Benton Harbor, and Niles (now practically a suburb of South Bend, Indiana) it is a very rural and agricultural district. Other cities include Sturgis, Three Rivers, Allegan, and South Haven, none of which even approach 20,000 people. I know this district well.I used to live there and I have been all over it.

It is about a Congressional District. Fred Upton had talked about retiring, and the GOP hadn't found someone to take over for him.

It is no unbiased survey, as this prose suggests:

The 6th District in Michigan covers six counties in the southwest corner of Michigan, with Kalamazoo as its largest city. Fred Upton has been the Congressman here for an astounding 34 years; but his tepid acquiescence to Donald Trump may have finally shaken 6th District voters awake. The coronavirus crisis is causing a realignment across the country as people seek real leadership. State Representative Jon Hoadley has represented Kalamazoo in Lansing for 6 years, and he represents a fresh face and a community-based approach that this area sorely needs. They have tired of Fred Upton, and it is well past time for a change. Michigan 6th voters have a unique opportunity to put a real leader to work for them in Congress in Jon Hoadley.

I am a Democratic hack, and I can recognize this loaded language. Fred Upton has two possible assets for his campaign: his daughter is supermodel Kate Upton Verlander and his son-in-law is future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander. If Verlander isn't pitching the Houston Astros into the playoffs, he might do some other pitching this year -- for his father-in-law.

The district:



If this district goes for Joe Biden in November, then Donald Trump will be savaged electorally in Michigan. This district is in many ways much more like Indiana than like the rest of Michigan. It is R+4.

This district went for Obama in 2008, barely went for Romney in 2012, and went for Trump by 9% in 2016. If Biden wins this district by 3% (there are far too many undecided in a 47-44 split), then he is likely winning Michigan by 7-8%.

Overpowering foreign policy, any talk of political corruption, and even the economy:

 This might be a Republican-leaning area, but the voters clearly know who is taking care of this crisis – Governor Whitmer’s job rating for “dealing with the coronavirus is 56% positive and 43% negative, while Donald Trump’s rating is 43% positive to 55% negative. And they largely have no idea what Fred Upton is doing to help them – his rating is 26% positive to 34% negative, with the bulk of voters saying they are not sure how he is doing.

Cough, cough. This district skews elderly, and even if the economic damage relating to a shutdown is likely to not outlast the shutdown by much, deaths from COVID-19 are forever. I question whether there will be much forgiveness of the President. As the 2008 and 2016 elections show, this district can swing in Presidential elections. Younger voters are not going to forgive any politician who has given Donald Trump any slack. Upton can win, but he will have to assert himself as someone who can separate himself from Donald Trump. It is a pity in a way, as Trump ruined plenty of Congressional careers in 2018 and may wreck a few more in 2020, including those who were in office before long Trump entered the political scene.
 

[NOVA Green]

It's about Michigan's sixth Congressional district, which includes Kalamazoo, St. Joseph, Cass, Berrien, Van Buren, and Allegan Counties. Aside from Kalamazoo-Portage, the 'micropolitan' area of St. Josph and Benton Harbor, and Niles (now practically a suburb of South Bend, Indiana) it is a very rural and agricultural district. Other cities include Sturgis, Three Rivers, Allegan, and South Haven, none of which even approach 20,000 people. I know this district well.I used to live there and I have been all over it.

It is about a Congressional District. Fred Upton had talked about retiring, and the GOP hadn't found someone to take over for him.

It is no unbiased survey, as this prose suggests:

The 6th District in Michigan covers six counties in the southwest corner of Michigan, with Kalamazoo as its largest city. Fred Upton has been the Congressman here for an astounding 34 years; but his tepid acquiescence to Donald Trump may have finally shaken 6th District voters awake. The coronavirus crisis is causing a realignment across the country as people seek real leadership. State Representative Jon Hoadley has represented Kalamazoo in Lansing for 6 years, and he represents a fresh face and a community-based approach that this area sorely needs. They have tired of Fred Upton, and it is well past time for a change. Michigan 6th voters have a unique opportunity to put a real leader to work for them in Congress in Jon Hoadley.

I am a Democratic hack, and I can recognize this loaded language. Fred Upton has two possible assets for his campaign: his daughter is supermodel Kate Upton Verlander and his son-in-law is future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander. If Verlander isn't pitching the Houston Astros into the playoffs, he might do some other pitching this year -- for his father-in-law.

The district:



If this district goes for Joe Biden in November, then Donald Trump will be savaged electorally in Michigan. This district is in many ways much more like Indiana than like the rest of Michigan. It is R+4.

This district went for Obama in 2008, barely went for Romney in 2012, and went for Trump by 9% in 2016. If Biden wins this district by 3% (there are far too many undecided in a 47-44 split), then he is likely winning Michigan by 7-8%.

Overpowering foreign policy, any talk of political corruption, and even the economy:

 This might be a Republican-leaning area, but the voters clearly know who is taking care of this crisis – Governor Whitmer’s job rating for “dealing with the coronavirus is 56% positive and 43% negative, while Donald Trump’s rating is 43% positive to 55% negative. And they largely have no idea what Fred Upton is doing to help them – his rating is 26% positive to 34% negative, with the bulk of voters saying they are not sure how he is doing.

Cough, cough. This district skews elderly, and even if the economic damage relating to a shutdown is likely to not outlast the shutdown by much, deaths from COVID-19 are forever. I question whether there will be much forgiveness of the President. As the 2008 and 2016 elections show, this district can swing in Presidential elections. Younger voters are not going to forgive any politician who has given Donald Trump any slack. Upton can win, but he will have to assert himself as someone who can separate himself from Donald Trump. It is a pity in a way, as Trump ruined plenty of Congressional careers in 2018 and may wreck a few more in 2020, including those who were in office before long Trump entered the political scene.
 

Thanks Pbrower2a for this post...

I had been looking at previous US-House Election results for Mi-06 (Post 2011 redistricting) while you were posting this informative summary.

Additionally US-House:

2012:  320.5k TOTAL Votes (54.6% Upton (R) vs 42.6% O'Brien (D).
2014:  209.0k TOTAL Votes (55.9% Upton (R) vs 40.4% Clements (D).
2016:  329.6k TOTAL Votes (58.6% Upton (R) vs 36.4% Clements (D).
2018:  293.4k TOTAL Votes (50.2% Upton (R) vs 45.7% Littlejohn (D).

Naturally the 2018 results really stand out here, especially the turnout for a Midterm election which looked closer to a PRES GE Year...

Now it could be that the 30k voters who turned out in 2016 but not in 2018 all happened to be Upton voters, although that seems unlikely....

Is there any reason to suspect that at minimum this race Upton wins by an extremely narrow margin (2-3%) if not a flip?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Great poll for Biden, he'd clearly be up big in Michigan based on this.

Did Gretchen Whitmer win this district in 2018?

[Pericles]

Great poll for Biden, he'd clearly be up big in Michigan based on this.

Did Gretchen Whitmer win this district in 2018?

She lost it by 0.2%.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Great poll for Biden, he'd clearly be up big in Michigan based on this.

Did Gretchen Whitmer win this district in 2018?

She lost it by 0.2%.

Even as she won statewide by 10, which Biden won't (for those going to say it's a wave, Biden would have to win nationwide by 13 points even without trends to win Michigan by 10)

[Inmate Trump]

Dem internal.

GOP denial.

[Crumpets]

Fred Upton has two possible assets for his campaign: his daughter is supermodel Kate Upton Verlander and his son-in-law is future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander. If Verlander isn't pitching the Houston Astros into the playoffs, he might do some other pitching this year -- for his father-in-law.

Huh, TIL. According to Wikipedia, Kate Upton is actually his niece, but still interesting. Apparently his grandfather also founded the Whirlpool Corporation.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Great poll for Biden, he'd clearly be up big in Michigan based on this.

Did Gretchen Whitmer win this district in 2018?

She lost it by 0.2%.

Even as she won statewide by 10, which Biden won't (for those going to say it's a wave, Biden would have to win nationwide by 13 points even without trends to win Michigan by 10)

Biden will not match Whitmer in Michigan, but hypothetically if he did, I would guess he would narrowly carry this district. Just because a state margin could be the same does not mean the results everywhere would be. Biden would likely improve in places like MI 8 and 11, and Trump would likely improve in places like MI 4 and 10

[S019]

I highly doubt that this district flips, but even if it's close, Biden is winning by a sizable margin.

[Senator-elect Spark]

The polling is just so bad for both sides right now...