Roanoke College - VA: Biden +12

[Wiz in Wis]

"Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 12 percentage points (51%-39%) in Virginia according to The Roanoke College Poll. Each is viewed favorably by 36 percent of respondents, but Trump is viewed unfavorably by 49 percent while Biden’s unfavorable rating is 39 percent. U.S. Senator Mark Warner leads his undetermined Republican opponent (48%-31%). Warner’s favorable/unfavorable numbers stand at 37%/21%. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 563 potential Virginia voters* between May 3 and May 17 and has a margin of error of +4.1 percent. In what was then a hypothetical matchup, Biden led Trump 48%-40% in February. More than nine of 10 (91%) said they care a great deal who wins the presidential election in November, and 94 percent said it was very likely they would vote."

https://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_may_2020

[libertpaulian]

VA is all but Safe D at this point. 

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, Safe D.

That one is gone for the GOP.

[Yellowhammer]

It will be closer than this but yeah, it's safe D.

[wbrocks67]

It will be closer than this but yeah, it's safe D.

Biden +12 isn't that out of the realm of possibility? HRC won by 5, and Northam won by 9. Kaine won by 17. Biden +12 is definitely possible.

[Sir Mohamed]

It will be closer than this but yeah, it's safe D.

Biden +12 isn't that out of the realm of possibility? HRC won by 5, and Northam won by 9. Kaine won by 17. Biden +12 is definitely possible.

Yup. JHK "expert's rating" has Biden winning 54% to 42%. I wouldn't be surprised, if this was the end result.

[pbrower2a]

Trump was a horrid match for Virginia in 2016, and he has shown such even more completely by now. This portends ill results for the President in states to its south that might be sharing some of the demographic trends. Florida, due to its composition, might be more like Virginia than any other  'former Confederate state', followed by North Carolina, Georgia, Texas (OK, well to the west), and South Carolina.
 
Populists of any kind don't have much chance to win Virginia. I can now see Virginia going 55-45 in a true binary race for Biden.  

[Pollster]

This margin looks a lot like the 2018 House vote in Virginia, suggests Biden is probably carrying VA-02 and VA-07 narrowly, and is closing the margins in VA-01 and VA-05. Good news for Spanberger and Luria.

[psychprofessor]

ooof suburbs are going to be a bloodbath for trump...he has now sunk into the high 30's

[ProudModerate2]

I hope we don't continue to see posts from blue-avatars (or SN) saying that VA is still-in-play for trump.

[MT Treasurer]

Right on time to refute hilarious takes like this which are still parroted here or some reason:

Virginia: Biden +13 (stop pretending that this state is even remotely winnable for any Republican)

How is a state that even Northam pre blackface only won by 9 going to vote for Biden by 13? VA is Safe D because of inelasticity, but not big Dem margins

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Virginia President by Roanoke College on 2020-05-17

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[jamestroll]

It will be closer than this but yeah, it's safe D.

Biden +12 isn't that out of the realm of possibility? HRC won by 5, and Northam won by 9. Kaine won by 17. Biden +12 is definitely possible.

Especially with Biden leading by 6 to 8 nationally right now.

Unfortunately, Virginia has no early voting yet (will happen with 2021 elections I believe) so the state was impacted was heavily impacted by the late breaking national trends against Hillary in 2016 and I wonder if 45% was the ceiling for the GOP in the state (with the exception of some constitutional office races). It is certainly an electorate in which the 2016 third party votes would be inclined to vote for Democrats otherwise.

[President Johnson]

NoVa moderate suburbanites They're fed up with Trump and want Uncle Joe.

In all seriousness, this is pretty plausible if Joe Biden has a good night. He should win the state by high single digits at least. And this poll is also great news for Abigail Spanberger.

[Calthrina950]

This is yet further confirmation that Virginia is a Safe D state. And like I've said before, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden does indeed carry the state by low double digits.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

So much winning.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yet Trump seems to still want to invest here. I welcome him to.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yet Trump seems to still want to invest here. I welcome him to.

I doubt Elaine Luria and Abigail Spanberger would welcome that. It is still worth it for Trump to invest in VA - Luria and Spanberger have big targets painted on their backs due to them sitting in marginal seats with R+ PVIs.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The NAVY is based in VA, and since they have contracted COVID 19, their enthusiasm for Trump will be lower than it was in 2016 and the younger Navy seals, in VA, along with African Americans,  will be voting Biden