2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[Seattle]

Washington's commission is 100% legislative appointments, 1 from each majority and minority leader. Since it is an even number, there needs to be compromise. This not just tilts but slants maps towards incumbent protection, but last time one GOP appointee ran laps around the other 3. Therefore, the GOP got more of what they wanted from the protection.

And he's still kicking.

[Seattle]

Washington Democrats should try to use the VRA to create a Hispanic legislative seat in Yakima county

Creates a very nice Rotten borough hispanic district for Democrat which is +10 clinton
Despite the purple area having 2/3 the population of green district it has 20k more total votes.

IIRC they sort of made one last time.

The Hispanic seat is still Trump +9 btw and has been Safe R. I mean I don't see a reason why a court wouldn't draw it if there's even a slight push for a Hispanic farming VRA seat.

Yeah for whatever reason it seems like last time WA redistricting played out as the most Republican possible version of fair districts, in much the same way that AZ shook out unfavorably for the GOP.

I'll have to find my version of this district, it's a little neater. I don't have high hopes for a non-incumbent favoring map from the commission, but I really do hope we get a better one (from both a partisan and also clean map perspective).

I don't think WA congresscritters are required to live in their own districts. At least, I'm pretty sure Jayapal lives just barely in the 9th.

[Seattle]

I need to do a lot of work cleaning things up and fixing other spots, but I am happy with my 67% Hispanic (also 7% native) Yakima seat!

[Seattle]

In my opinion, communities of interest are exceedingly more important for legislative districts since they are so much smaller than CDs.
At the local level, the Columbia Gorge represents the only cohesive COI to cross the Cascades. The next closest would be Lewis + Yakima. Anything involving the combination of Ellensburg + King suburbs or Wenatchee + Snohomish exurbs would be met with fierce resistance (you could make the case that Roslyn/Suncadia/Cle Elum in Kittitas and Leavenworth in Chelan could be placed in western based districts, but we're talking a handful of people there).

Granted, my LD-39 is not great, but if it's not going up into Yakima county to grab valley farm towns or the city (like the current map), then it needs to follow SR 14 into Benton county.

To answer your question, LD-40's CVAP is 46.8% hispanic, 42.6% white, 8.1% native
Neighboring LD-43 (dark purple) is 56.8 hispanic, but only 31.9% CVAP hispanic.

[Seattle]

I took a stab at legislative redistricting. It remains to be seen how incumbent friendly of a map the redistricting commission comes up with, but I think Ds will be eager to avoid the mistakes they made last time. Obviously there will be more change than at the congressional level - there are a number of seriously underpopulated rural seats and several decently overpopulated Seattle and suburban seats. WA has 49 districts, with 137,235/district in 2010 and 155,405/district in 2019. Seattle alone went from 4.44 districts to 4.85. It'll be a lot easier to sneak in a new D district even with a minimal change map off that alone.

My map is what I'd present if I were on the commission as a "look what we could do". It keeps true to the current district numbering as closely as possible. It is obviously a moderate D gerrymander. With that said, it's not hard to get Ds 30 Likely/Safe districts.

[Seattle]

Bothell, Kenmore, Mountlake Terrace, and some unincorporated Snohomish County. The most R territory is also the fastest growing part and is also swinging wildly left.

68% White, 19% Asian, 8% Hispanic

'16 President: 63.4% D - 28.7% R
'16 Governor: 59.1% D - 40.9% R
Safe D

Old District '16 President: 61.7% D - 30.4% R (District is now more D)




Combined existing LD-2 and LD-31 to make this exurban/rural Pierce/King district. Shedding Lacey allows for the creation of a second Thurston-centric district.

85.5% White, 5% Hispanic

'16 President: 35.2% D - 56.3% R
'16 Governor: 37.7% D - 62.3% R
Safe R

Old District '16 President: 37.8% D - 53.1% R (District is now more R)



You could create a tight D pack in Spokane easily, but I pulled the district south to take Cheney (EWU) and east to take a few Spokane Valley D precincts so that the 6th stays as a tilt R district (and continue to pain Democrats with narrow losses). I bet this district swung considerably to Biden.

81% White, 7% Hispanic

'16 President: 52.6% D - 38.2% R
'16 Governor: 55.2% D - 44.8% R
Likely D (realistically safe)

Old District '16 President: 51.8% D - 38.1% R (District is now more D)




Spokane Valley and exurban Spokane. Home to Matt Shea.

89% White, 4.5% Hispanic

'16 President: 33.8% D - 58.0% R
'16 Governor: 38.3% D - 61.7% R
Safe R

Old District '16 President: 34.9% D - 56.4% R (District is now more R)




Snoqualmie Valley + Issaquah (and a hodgepodge of leftover small town & exurban foothill areas). This district is zooming left and probably voted for >60% Biden. Clearly more R down ballot, but not enough recently to make a difference

79% White, 11% Asian, 7% Hispanic

'16 President: 55.3% D - 36.7% R
'16 Governor: 50.1% D - 49.9% R
Likely D

Old District '16 President: 54.7% D - 37.1% R (District is now more D)

Takes awhile to compile these but I'll try to post 6-10 tomorrow.

[Seattle]

North Spokane + some Spokane Valley. This is a district Biden flipped and that statewide Ds often carry. However, it's current iteration has taunted Ds at the legislative level and would probably continue you to do so.

83% White, 4% Hispanic

'16 President: 44.2% D - 46.2% R
'16 Governor: 51.1% D - 48.9% R
Tilt R

Old District '16 President: 44.7% D - 46.8% R (District is unchanged)




WA's newest largest districting covering very rural central and northeastern parts of the state. Also the reddest. It's possible this district actually swung to Trump.

84% White, 8% Hispanic, 6% Native

'16 President: 26.1% D - 66.3% R
'16 Governor: 32.2% D - 67.8% R
Safe R

Old District '16 President: 29.0% D - 63.5% R (District is now more R)




The 8th loses Hanford and its waste, plus some outer Kennewick/Richland to take in West Pasco. This now very compact tri-cities seat is still safe R. It would be preferable to keep Benton County whole, but you can't accomplish that if you're serious about creating a Hispanic opportunity district in Yakima. The cross-border 14th has to go somewhere, in this case, into Benton.

68% White, 22% Hispanic, 5% Asian

'16 President: 35.1% D - 56.7% R
'16 Governor: 40.0% D - 60.0% R
Safe R

Old District '16 President: 34.5% D - 57.0% R (District is now more D)




The 9th transforms quite a bit. I think this is both a more cohesive from a COI perspective (keeps small Central WA towns together with Pasco) and is actually majority Hispanic (although not by CVAP). Still a very red seat.

58% Hispanic, 38% White (CVAP: 61% White, 33% Hispanic)

'16 President: 33.9% D - 59.5% R
'16 Governor: 37.7% D - 62.3% R
Safe R

Old District '16 President: 35.1% D - 56.4% R (District is now more R)



One of my more clever districts, IMO. This "islands & ferries" based district transforms the old tenth. It actually drops the most D parts of Whidbey Island for Anacortes + the San Juans + all of Mt. Vernon. It also loses the heavily R Snohomish part of the district, except for the partial precinct that connects Camano to the rest of the district. It would look even cleaner if they'd ever resume ferry service between Coupeville and Camano - then I'd put Camano in the 24th and this would be a further 2-3% D. This seat swung nicely to Biden.

74% White, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian

'16 President: 50.7% D - 41.2% R
'16 Governor: 52.2% D - 47.8% R
Leans D

Old District '16 President: 46.9% D - 45.1% R (District is now more D)

[Seattle]

One of my more clever districts, IMO. This "islands & ferries" based district transforms the old tenth. It actually drops the most D parts of Whidbey Island for Anacortes + the San Juans + all of Mt. Vernon. It also loses the heavily R Snohomish part of the district, except for the partial precinct that connects Camano to the rest of the district. It would look even cleaner if they'd ever resume ferry service between Coupeville and Camano - then I'd put Camano in the 24th and this would be a further 2-3% D. This seat swung nicely to Biden.

74% White, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian

'16 President: 50.7% D - 41.2% R
'16 Governor: 52.2% D - 47.8% R
Leans D

Old District '16 President: 46.9% D - 45.1% R (District is now more D)

I can't see the image of your actual district lines here (not enough posts yet) but I don't understand why you have to split Whidbey to make this sort of district. You could instead make a 10th district with Island and San Juan counties, and western Skagit county, plus a tiny piece of Snohomish for road contiguity. Then, the rest of Whatcom and Skagit has exactly enough population for 2 districts. IMO, this configuration works out really well.

Sure - but the split is not really about the 10th - it's about ensuring the 24th has enough population without having to take in Gray's Harbor county or more of Mason county AND so the new 39th is as competitive as possible and that the D vote in Mt.Vernon isn't wasted in the 42nd (basically the old 39th).

I previously had the 10th stop around Fort Ebey, which makes sense to me, with the rest of Whidbey in the 24th and Camano in the 39th... but taking it out of the 39th makes it ~2 points more D. Hence the weird boundary around Oak Harbor. As for splitting Whidbey, I think there's a case for it. There's a big cultural difference between NAS-dominated Oak Harbor and the rest of the island (significantly more rural). If anything, it makes sense to pair Oak Harbor and Fidalgo, since there's also a significant officer presence in parts of the Anacortes.

I could probably clean things up by overpopulating surrounding districts slightly so that the 10th can seep further into Oak Harbor and make a nicer border, but I'm still limited by where the 24th picks up population from. There's not much further it can reach in Mason County without cutting off the 19th, due to the geography of the roads. It's not that I didn't prioritize COIs - I really did try to with a mind for creating a D-favored map - it's that WA's geography forces unseemly lines somewhere. I guess I could sacrifice the 39th....

[Seattle]

The 11th loses its Seattle appendage (this is to take in the home of State Senator Bob Hasegawa's home in Beacon Hill) and gains Newcastle. This continues to be a majority-minority district and by 2030 will probable be less than 40% White, given intra-metro migration trends.

48% White, 26% Asian, 13% Black, 12% Hispanic,

'16 President: 65.4% D - 27.5% R
'16 Governor: 61.4% D - 38.6% R
Safe D

Old District '16 President: 67.7% D - 25.4% R (District is now more R)




The 12th sheds rural Douglas County for the rest of Okanogan County, which results in a politically identical district. This probably had decent swing to Biden, given that he narrowly carried Wenatchee after Clinton lost the city by ~10.

67% White, 26% Hispanic, 5% Native

'16 President: 37.3% D - 56.0% R
'16 Governor: 40.6% D - 59.4% R
Safe R

Old District '16 President: 37.3% D - 56.0% R (District is unchanged)




The previously unseemly 13th transforms into a compact Kittitas + Yakima district. Still very R, but slightly less so.

75% White, 19% Hispanic

'16 President: 33.7% D - 59.8% R
'16 Governor: 38.2% D - 61.8% R
Safe R

Old District '16 President: 31.0% D - 61.9% R (District is now more D)




The 14th maintains its cross-Cascades status. Given my desire to create a Hispanic majority Yakima-based district, this sheds all of its Yakima portions and continues along the Columbia into Benton County. Not my favorite, but there's just two ways to draw this, so if you're not going up into Yakima, you're going further east.

79% White, 14% Hispanic

'16 President: 34.2% D - 58.2% R
'16 Governor: 37.7% D - 62.3% R
Safe R

Old District '16 President: 39.0% D - 54.2% R (District is now more R)




My 15th becomes an actual Hispanic-majority performing district that's also plurality Hispanic CVAP (majority-minority CVAP if you lump the major Yakima Tribe presence as well). It consequently becomes a D district and would empower the farming communities in the Yakima Valley in a way that's never been done.

67% Hispanic, 25% White, 7% Native (CVAP: 47.4% Hispanic, 42.0% White, 7.9% Native)

'16 President: 53.7% D - 40.5% R
'16 Governor: 57.5% D - 42.5% R
Likely, on the border of Safe D

Old District '16 President: 42.5% D - 51.7% R (District is now more D)

[Seattle]

One of my more clever districts, IMO. This "islands & ferries" based district transforms the old tenth. It actually drops the most D parts of Whidbey Island for Anacortes + the San Juans + all of Mt. Vernon. It also loses the heavily R Snohomish part of the district, except for the partial precinct that connects Camano to the rest of the district. It would look even cleaner if they'd ever resume ferry service between Coupeville and Camano - then I'd put Camano in the 24th and this would be a further 2-3% D. This seat swung nicely to Biden.

74% White, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian

'16 President: 50.7% D - 41.2% R
'16 Governor: 52.2% D - 47.8% R
Leans D

Old District '16 President: 46.9% D - 45.1% R (District is now more D)

I can't see the image of your actual district lines here (not enough posts yet) but I don't understand why you have to split Whidbey to make this sort of district. You could instead make a 10th district with Island and San Juan counties, and western Skagit county, plus a tiny piece of Snohomish for road contiguity. Then, the rest of Whatcom and Skagit has exactly enough population for 2 districts. IMO, this configuration works out really well.

Sure - but the split is not really about the 10th - it's about ensuring the 24th has enough population without having to take in Gray's Harbor county or more of Mason county AND so the new 39th is as competitive as possible and that the D vote in Mt.Vernon isn't wasted in the 42nd (basically the old 39th).

I previously had the 10th stop around Fort Ebey, which makes sense to me, with the rest of Whidbey in the 24th and Camano in the 39th... but taking it out of the 39th makes it ~2 points more D. Hence the weird boundary around Oak Harbor. As for splitting Whidbey, I think there's a case for it. There's a big cultural difference between NAS-dominated Oak Harbor and the rest of the island (significantly more rural). If anything, it makes sense to pair Oak Harbor and Fidalgo, since there's also a significant officer presence in parts of the Anacortes.

I could probably clean things up by overpopulating surrounding districts slightly so that the 10th can seep further into Oak Harbor and make a nicer border, but I'm still limited by where the 24th picks up population from. There's not much further it can reach in Mason County without cutting off the 19th, due to the geography of the roads. It's not that I didn't prioritize COIs - I really did try to with a mind for creating a D-favored map - it's that WA's geography forces unseemly lines somewhere. I guess I could sacrifice the 39th....

To the first point, you could also have the 24th cross the Hood Canal Bridge and pick up Northern Kitsap county (although without seeing your map I don't know how much that would help).

To the second point, I see what you're saying. My suggestion from the previous post would pretty much doom the 39th (which I didn't care about because I wasn't trying to make a D-leaning map). I think the 42nd could be made competitive but only by drawing some pretty strange lines in Whatcom County.

I wish you could see the images - maybe at 20 posts?

The current map has the following North Sound districts:
LD-40 (Safe D)
LD-24 (Likely D)
LD-42 (Tossup)
LD-10 (Tilt R/Tossup)
LD-39 (Safe R)

My goal was to transform the two tossup districts to be more D friendly. I do this by centering LD-40 in Bellingham/Ferndale/Blaine, which frees up Mt. Vernon/Anacortes/San Juans to be moved into the new LD-10. LD-42 is essentially eliminated and becomes a district similar to the existing 39th, sans Marysville. LD-24 takes Whidbey as we discussed (and loses all of Gray's Harbor) and the new 39th becomes a fast-growing exurban tossup Snohomish district based on Marysville/Lake Stevens/Arlington. It's politically similar to where LD-44 was in the 2000s and early 2010s - needs a Steve Hobbs-esque candidate. The new 42nd takes the heavily R rural leftovers in Snohomish, much as the current 39th does.

That leaves you with:
LD-40 (Safe D)
LD-24 (Likely D, and shored up with Whidbey instead of R-swinging Gray's Harbor)
LD-10 (Leans D)
LD-39 (Tossup, but swinging D in a way that the current LD-42 is not)
LD-42 (Safe R)

[Seattle]

Well the 2019 Estimates just dropped, which of course forced me to adjust newly over/under-populated districts. Most of the changes were in the Puget Sound districts that I have not yet posted and it also gave me the chance to narrowly flip LD-31 from Trump to Clinton. So not really worthy of posting an updated state-level map because the changes are subtle enough to be difficult to notice. One rather annoying thing, both the 13th and 15th are now underpopulated by ~3300 people. I don't really want to force another county split (they currently take all of Yakima + Kittitas), but depending on population deviation rules, those district may run afoul.



The 16th drops Benton County and Pasco to become a true SE WA district, comprised of Walla Walla, Pullman, and Clarkston.

79% White, 12% Hispanic, 5% Asian

'16 President: 37.6% D - 53.5% R
'16 Governor: 42.8% D - 57.8% R
Safe R

Old District '16 President: 36.0% D - 56.7% R (District is now more D)




The way this district is currently drawn is honestly an R gerrymander. Trade the northern exurban/rural parts for Camas and some additional areas of Vancouver leads to a significantly more D district. You could make this a true tossup by taking in all of Washougal and shifting the more heavily D Vancouver precincts back into the 49th.

73% White, 12% Hispanic, 9% Asian

'16 President: 51.0% D - 41.5% R
'16 Governor: 52.0% D - 48.0% R
Tilt D/Lean D

Old District '16 President: 45.5% D - 46.9% R (District is now more D)




Since the 14th has to grow its presence in Clark, the 18th shifts up to split Cowlitz, stopping just into Kelso. Most of the district is exurban and rural Clark, but it importantly loses Camas to the 17th.

86% White, 6% Hispanic

'16 President: 35.7% D - 57.1% R
'16 Governor: 37.8% D - 62.2% R
Safe R

Old District '16 President: 42.4% D - 50.6% R (District is now more R)




My attempt to keep the 19th in D hands (I probably should have simply given up on this district). It loses Cowlitz (which is still swinging away from the Ds) for Mason and the rest of Gray's Harbor County. Although this district swung to Biden (this was probably Trump +6), it probably wouldn't be enough for either Brian Blake or Dean Takko to survive. I'm sure Tim Sheldon could keep his "D" electoral shtick going though in just this sort of district.

80% White, 10% Hispanic, 6% Native

'16 President: 42.4% D - 49.5% R
'16 Governor: 47.6% D - 52.4% R
Tilt R/Lean R (though swing R in the long run)

Old District '16 President: 41.6% D - 50.5% R (District is now more D)




The 20th swaps its Cowlitz portion for the current 19th's - so Longview is now in this district, paired with the non-Centralia/Chehalis parts of Lewis County and leftover R territory in Thurston and Pierce.

84% White, 8% Hispanic

'16 President: 34.6% D - 57.7% R
'16 Governor: 38.7% D - 61.3% R
Safe R

Old District '16 President: 30.1% D - 61.4% R (District is now more D)

[Seattle]

This district loses Edmonds for the rest of Lynwood, which makes it considerably less white. It's probably going to be close to majority-minority by 2030. There's also a lot of multi-family construction occurring all along I-5 and SR 99, as well as around future light rail stations and in Lynwood's downtown.

57% White, 21% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 9% Black

'16 President: 62.6% D - 29.9% R
'16 Governor: 59.4% D - 40.6% R
Safe D

Old District '16 President: 62.3% D - 30.2% R (District is now more D)




Another rather clever thing I did (*pats self on back*) is to split Thurston into two districts and basically eliminate the current 35th. Why pack all those D voters in Olympia, when you can make two Lean/Likely D districts (*laughs in D*). The resulting 22nd contains Olympia + Evergreen + Tumwater and then snakes down into Centralia/Chehalis to take the "most" D voters in Lewis, which is to say, 40-60 R voters. If you fully sacrifice the 19th, then you could snake into Shelton instead, which would result in a Safe D district.

80% White, 10% Hispanic, 6% Asian

'16 President: 53.5% D - 37.4% R
'16 Governor: 55.7% D - 44.3% R
Likely D

Old District '16 President: 60.7% D - 30.2% R (District is now more R)




The 23rd loses its Bremerton arm and takes in more marginal Silverdale and some rural territory.

78% White, 9% Asian, 7% Hispanic

'16 President: 54.5% D - 36.4% R
'16 Governor: 55.4% D - 44.6% R
Safe D

Old District '16 President: 56.7% D - 34.4% R (District is now more R)




Dropping Gray's Harbor county for non-Oak Harbor Whidbey Island shifts this district solidly into the D column and ends reliance on ConservaDs. Based on Port Townsend + S. Whidbey + Port Angeles, this district should not trend against Ds (the current 24th is less secure).

84% White, 6% Hispanic, 6% Native

'16 President: 52.0% D - 40.4% R
'16 Governor: 55.0% D - 45.0% R
Likely D

Old District '16 President: 49.0% D - 43.4% R (District is now more D)




The 25th is another district that Ds have struggled to make inroads in, despite winning back in 2006/2008. Even in 2018, Ds failed to pick up an open position in this currently Tilt R seat. Now that it's Clinton +5 (and probably Biden +10) thanks to a chop into Tacoma, it should be tossup at worst for Ds, but certainly still winnable for Rs, given their down ballot favorability.

68% White, 12% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 9% Black

'16 President: 48.6% D - 43.2% R
'16 Governor: 49.4% D - 50.6% R
Tossup/Tilt D

Old District '16 President: 45.2% D - 46.6% R (District is now more D)

[Seattle]

Took a little break there - time to return to the in-depth look of districts 26-49.




The new 26th is largely unchanged. The biggest difference is that all Bremerton is added in exchange for the loss of suburban Artondale and the non-Gig Harbor portions of Pierce County on the Kitsap peninsula. A very competitive district at the state level, Senator Emily Randall (D) won in 2018 by the skin of her teeth, while both House members are Republicans. The addition of Bremerton and D trends around Port Orchard/Southworth (new ferry connection downtown Seattle) and Gig Harbor make this seat slightly more D. This is Derek Kilmer's old state senate seat - so clearly the right kind of Dem can lock down the seat.

78% White, 7% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 5% Black

'16 President: 45.5% D - 44.4% R
'16 Governor: 47.8% D - 52.2% R
Tossup

Old District '16 President: 45.36% D - 45.35% R (Clinton by 10 votes, lol, District is now more D)




The urban Tacoma district becomes slightly less D by shedding some of South Tacoma to the 25th and pickup more marginal Fife/Milton/Waller. I expect this district to see a lot of population growth in the next 10 years as people are priced out of Seattle, but don't want to leave the region nor move to suburban/exurban areas.

66% White, 11% Black, 10% Asian, 10% Hispanic

'16 President: 62.4% D - 29.3% R
'16 Governor: 61.5% D - 38.5% R
Safe D

Old District '16 President: 65.2% D - 26.4% R (District is now more R)




The core of this district remains unchanged: University Place + western portions of Lakewood + Dupont + and JBLM. Some portions of Pierce County's Kitsap Peninsula are added in and Spanaway is taken out. Overall a D-swinging district that saw its R incumbent senator narrowly defeated in 2020 - he would still be out even with +.6% R change. District was probably around Biden +17.

66% White, 12% Black, 11% Asian, 10% Hispanic

'16 President: 52.5% D - 39.5% R
'16 Governor: 51.1% D - 48.9% R
Leans D

Old District '16 President: 52.6% D - 39.0% R (District is now slightly more R)




Barely majority-minority district that is demographically hurtling towards being one of the most diverse in the state. This contains most of South Tacoma, Parkland, and Spanaway. There's some border jenga with the 31st in unincorporated Pierce to maximize D precincts in the 31st.

49% White, 19% Black, 16% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 5% Pacific Islander (!)

'16 President: 54.2% D - 37.0% R
'16 Governor: 56.9% D - 43.1% R
Safe D

Old District '16 President: 54.5% D - 36.8% R (District is now slightly more R)




This district remained competitive for Rs up until 2014/2016. Since then it's been split roughly 60/40 D. It has a rapidly growing minority population. Federal Way in particular has seen significant growth of its Black population and in recent years local electeds have begun to reflect this change - both state reps are Black (this is also Kristine Reeves old district).

48% White, 19% Hispanic, 15% Black, 15% Asian

'16 President: 56.9% D - 35.8% R
'16 Governor: 56.0% D - 44.0% R
Safe D

Old District '16 President: 56.8% D - 36.0% R (District is now slightly more D)