2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

IIRC current projections are for WA to stand pat at 10 seats.
What implications do population trends have for the post-2020 map? Will the numbers exist for there to be just one cross-Cascades district? How will WA-08 change?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Looks like WA-4 and WA-5 combined are still more or less the right size for 2 districts, so I expect you'll probably keep something like the present alignment. The other alternative would be to shift Chelan and Kittitas Counties into the 4th district, but in return have the 3rd going east. That would be awkward to do in Yakima County without splitting Yakima itself, but on 2018 numbers it looks like it's doable in Benton County if you're willing to put Richland and Kennewick in different counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b11836d0-9a6f-4614-88a9-8cca4c19e928

I quickly constructed this map with 2018 population estimates. I sought to firm up WA-08 for Dems and get rid of county splits whenever possible while trying to be least-change as much as possible given these two prerequisites.

[Former President tack50]

Here is a mild Dem Gerrymander. This map basically does 3 things:

1: Shore up the 8th district while not harming any of the current other Dem districts
2: Turn the 3rd district into a true swing district
3: The 5th becomes marginally more Dem, but probably not enough to matter

All while mostly (but not fully) trying to keep COIs intact and what not. Not sure to what extent gerrymandering is possible tbh.



WA-01: Clinton+26; D+11
WA-02: Clinton+14; D+6
WA-03: Trump+2; R+1
WA-04: Trump+28; R+15
WA-05: Trump+10; R+7
WA-06: Clinton+11; D+6
WA-07: Clinton+76; D+36
WA-08: Clinton+10; D+4
WA-09: Clinton+33; D+13
WA-10: Clinton+12; D+5

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d4bbc6aa-8851-4f3e-bd6d-872d7ab9a506

I am sure you can be a lot more agressive, probably making the 3rd into a Dem district and not a tossup and possibly making the 5th into a tossup or even a Dem district. On paper the numbers are certainly there for 9-1, though you probably need snakes into Seattle to do it?

[EastAnglianLefty]

I had a crack at a map that crosses the Cascades in the south and tries to turn WA-9 from a district that is nominally majority-minority but pretty much guaranteed to elect the choice of white voters, to a potential Asian-opportunity district. Otherwise it's mostly a least-change map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/55c57152-605e-4039-b6f3-e51611279b6c

The 8th is shored up a little bit, but the 10th adds Lewis County and gets rather more vulnerable. Overall I'm not that happy with it, but if you want to keep representatives' homes in their districts then that forces your hand a lot of the time.

[Sol]

Here is a mild Dem Gerrymander. This map basically does 3 things:

1: Shore up the 8th district while not harming any of the current other Dem districts
2: Turn the 3rd district into a true swing district
3: The 5th becomes marginally more Dem, but probably not enough to matter

All while mostly (but not fully) trying to keep COIs intact and what not. Not sure to what extent gerrymandering is possible tbh.



WA-01: Clinton+26; D+11
WA-02: Clinton+14; D+6
WA-03: Trump+2; R+1
WA-04: Trump+28; R+15
WA-05: Trump+10; R+7
WA-06: Clinton+11; D+6
WA-07: Clinton+76; D+36
WA-08: Clinton+10; D+4
WA-09: Clinton+33; D+13
WA-10: Clinton+12; D+5

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d4bbc6aa-8851-4f3e-bd6d-872d7ab9a506

I am sure you can be a lot more agressive, probably making the 3rd into a Dem district and not a tossup and possibly making the 5th into a tossup or even a Dem district. On paper the numbers are certainly there for 9-1, though you probably need snakes into Seattle to do it?

How connected are Pierce and Yakima though? IIRC there's a pass there but it probably makes more sense to cross the Cascades in the North or South.

[Oryxslayer]

Here is a mild Dem Gerrymander. This map basically does 3 things:

1: Shore up the 8th district while not harming any of the current other Dem districts
2: Turn the 3rd district into a true swing district
3: The 5th becomes marginally more Dem, but probably not enough to matter

All while mostly (but not fully) trying to keep COIs intact and what not. Not sure to what extent gerrymandering is possible tbh.



WA-01: Clinton+26; D+11
WA-02: Clinton+14; D+6
WA-03: Trump+2; R+1
WA-04: Trump+28; R+15
WA-05: Trump+10; R+7
WA-06: Clinton+11; D+6
WA-07: Clinton+76; D+36
WA-08: Clinton+10; D+4
WA-09: Clinton+33; D+13
WA-10: Clinton+12; D+5

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d4bbc6aa-8851-4f3e-bd6d-872d7ab9a506

I am sure you can be a lot more agressive, probably making the 3rd into a Dem district and not a tossup and possibly making the 5th into a tossup or even a Dem district. On paper the numbers are certainly there for 9-1, though you probably need snakes into Seattle to do it?

How connected are Pierce and Yakima though? IIRC there's a pass there but it probably makes more sense to cross the Cascades in the North or South.

This forum had this discussion last time, and the end result was that all Cascade cuts are going to be bad. All are inferior, and none have any pros over a different cut. I guess one could cross in the south, but the goal wouldn't be Yakima, it would be other, redder precincts to reinforce JHB. She's already rather solid, but solidifying her would be a trade for solidifying the 8th. Another option of course is going at Yakima from the north, which satisfies both parties concerns.

The only way one could create a worse map than the present is if you cut the Cascades twice, with the obvious exceptions of Skamania and Klickitat. Those could go in either side nicely, but their tiny population means you will still need to carve out more.

Something that I also expect is a reorientation in King. In 2010, the GOP used citizen concerns to get a majority-minority seat in WA09 that would protect WA08. In 2020, if there is any desire to keep such a seat, it would be shifted into the hands of the actual minority congresswomen. This makes WA01 more compact in northern King, and then towns get traded in the east.

[Former President tack50]

How connected are Pierce and Yakima though? IIRC there's a pass there but it probably makes more sense to cross the Cascades in the North or South.

Actually indeed it turns out they are not connected by road (there is a pass but the roads force you into other counties shortly after it anyways).

That can easily be solved by crossing the Cascades further south on Lewis County instead of Pierce (so the 4th takes the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County and the 10th takes the portion in Pierce), and has no real effects on partisanship.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Here's an attempt at a map crossing the Cascades in the north, like the present map:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8f72f241-69c0-49eb-80e0-56f570cff08d

My aims were clean lines and incumbent protection, although not necessarily both at the same time. The 1st and 2nd are realigned north-south rather than east-west. Del Bene's home is drawn out, but she keeps enough territory that she could move without issue (or if Smith retires, she'd have a good profile to win the 9th.)

The 8th gets considerably safer and all the Democratic seats are above 50% Clinton. The ugly cut into Thurston was me hedging my bets because I don't know who's going to win the primary in the 10th, but if that's not necessary it could easily be removed.

[jimrtex]

How connected are Pierce and Yakima though? IIRC there's a pass there but it probably makes more sense to cross the Cascades in the North or South.

Actually indeed it turns out they are not connected by road (there is a pass but the roads force you into other counties shortly after it anyways).

That can easily be solved by crossing the Cascades further south on Lewis County instead of Pierce (so the 4th takes the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County and the 10th takes the portion in Pierce), and has no real effects on partisanship.

Chinook and Cayuse passes are closed in Winter (and are still closed for 2020) so a connection between Pierce and Yakima is out (no greater COI can exist if the areas can not even communicate in an ordinary manner).

That a highway route passes through other counties briefly is not significant in my mind. If you think of the two counties as two blocks of wood glued together, with the highway as an iron rod placed to restrict torsional pressure on the joint, then it doesn't matter if the rod is partially external.

I would allow use of Stevens Pass between Snohomish and Chelan; Snoqualmie Pass between King and Kittitas; White Pass between Lewis and Pierce; and the Columbia River between Clark and Klickitat.

Historically, the Columbia River was the route to the eastern part of the state. When Washington was a portion of Oregon Territory, the territorial legislature created Lewis and Clarke (sic) counties. Clarke went upstream from Fort Vancouver, and included all of the Columbia Basin east of the Cascades. Lewis was the area west of the Cascades.

Modern Clark is the remainder of the original Clarke. Modern Lewis is what was left after they chopped off additional counties. In particular, Thurston included the entire Puget Sound areas.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Just to chime in, I definitely think the appropriate cross-cascades district needs to follow the Columbia. The gorge has a lot of connections along it, plus Vancouver isn't particularly connected with places to its north and west. Meanwhile, there is nothing which makes connecting Issaquah and Yakima, for example, particularly rational.

[Water Hazard]

Washington's current map strikes me as needlessly messy. There are multiple incidents of two districts sharing the same county, not one district is fully contained within King County, and I don't think WA-01 is even contiguous by road. I don't know a lot of background info about dynamics of the last redistricting cycle there, but I would expect better from a commission.

Anyway, here's what I came up with:



1: Clinton +7
2: Clinton +36
3: Trump +8
4: Trump +23 (39% Hispanic)
5: Trump +13
6: Clinton +12
7: Clinton +77
8: Clinton +5
9: Clinton +40 (48% white)
10: Clinton +13

Not much change from a partisan standpoint, but a lot cleaner. Northern WA gets its own seat, as does Pierce County. All of Seattle is in the 7th, and the 9th is all-King County suburbs while still being minority-majority. As was mentioned, there's no good way to cross the Cascades, so I figured sticking with I-90 made the most sense. For all the oddities of the current map, I think the 8th district is about as sensible as it can be.

(I double-crossed 4 and 5 here because of the wacky precincts in Walla Walla, which is of course not necessary.)

[Oryxslayer]

Here is a weird fact: Chelan and Douglas are actually in the Seattle-Tacoma media market, though not Kittitas. I'm surprised nobody brought this up in the 2010 thread when the cross-cascade seat was argued about for pages and pages, the legislators certainly knew it. This is probably the only true serviceable community that crosses the mountains, and it is a point in favor of crossing the mountains in either Snoqualmie or Skykomish.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Washington's current map strikes me as needlessly messy. There are multiple incidents of two districts sharing the same county, not one district is fully contained within King County, and I don't think WA-01 is even contiguous by road. I don't know a lot of background info about dynamics of the last redistricting cycle there, but I would expect better from a commission.

Anyway, here's what I came up with:



1: Clinton +7
2: Clinton +36
3: Trump +8
4: Trump +23 (39% Hispanic)
5: Trump +13
6: Clinton +12
7: Clinton +77
8: Clinton +5
9: Clinton +40 (48% white)
10: Clinton +13

Not much change from a partisan standpoint, but a lot cleaner. Northern WA gets its own seat, as does Pierce County. All of Seattle is in the 7th, and the 9th is all-King County suburbs while still being minority-majority. As was mentioned, there's no good way to cross the Cascades, so I figured sticking with I-90 made the most sense. For all the oddities of the current map, I think the 8th district is about as sensible as it can be.

(I double-crossed 4 and 5 here because of the wacky precincts in Walla Walla, which is of course not necessary.)

This is one of the best maps I've seen. People really need to stop butchering the area between Everett and Bellingham.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Washington's current map strikes me as needlessly messy. There are multiple incidents of two districts sharing the same county, not one district is fully contained within King County, and I don't think WA-01 is even contiguous by road. I don't know a lot of background info about dynamics of the last redistricting cycle there, but I would expect better from a commission.

Anyway, here's what I came up with:



1: Clinton +7
2: Clinton +36
3: Trump +8
4: Trump +23 (39% Hispanic)
5: Trump +13
6: Clinton +12
7: Clinton +77
8: Clinton +5
9: Clinton +40 (48% white)
10: Clinton +13

Not much change from a partisan standpoint, but a lot cleaner. Northern WA gets its own seat, as does Pierce County. All of Seattle is in the 7th, and the 9th is all-King County suburbs while still being minority-majority. As was mentioned, there's no good way to cross the Cascades, so I figured sticking with I-90 made the most sense. For all the oddities of the current map, I think the 8th district is about as sensible as it can be.

(I double-crossed 4 and 5 here because of the wacky precincts in Walla Walla, which is of course not necessary.)

Did you take into account incumbent residences? It looks like Larsen lives in your 1st (whereas according to Wikipedia, he doesn't live in his current seat) but I'm unsure if your 2nd reaches down far enough to take in DelBene's home.

I think you've also shifted Kilmer out of the 6th and obviously we don't know about the 10th yet, but that all seems like it would be fairly easy to fix.

[lfromnj]

Washington Democrats should try to use the VRA to create a Hispanic legislative seat in Yakima county

Creates a very nice Rotten borough hispanic district for Democrat which is +10 clinton
Despite the purple area having 2/3 the population of green district it has 20k more total votes.

[Sol]

Washington Democrats should try to use the VRA to create a Hispanic legislative seat in Yakima county

Creates a very nice Rotten borough hispanic district for Democrat which is +10 clinton
Despite the purple area having 2/3 the population of green district it has 20k more total votes.

IIRC they sort of made one last time.

[lfromnj]

Washington Democrats should try to use the VRA to create a Hispanic legislative seat in Yakima county

Creates a very nice Rotten borough hispanic district for Democrat which is +10 clinton
Despite the purple area having 2/3 the population of green district it has 20k more total votes.

IIRC they sort of made one last time.

The Hispanic seat is still Trump +9 btw and has been Safe R. I mean I don't see a reason why a court wouldn't draw it if there's even a slight push for a Hispanic farming VRA seat.

[Sol]

Washington Democrats should try to use the VRA to create a Hispanic legislative seat in Yakima county

Creates a very nice Rotten borough hispanic district for Democrat which is +10 clinton
Despite the purple area having 2/3 the population of green district it has 20k more total votes.

IIRC they sort of made one last time.

The Hispanic seat is still Trump +9 btw and has been Safe R. I mean I don't see a reason why a court wouldn't draw it if there's even a slight push for a Hispanic farming VRA seat.

Yeah for whatever reason it seems like last time WA redistricting played out as the most Republican possible version of fair districts, in much the same way that AZ shook out unfavorably for the GOP.

[Water Hazard]

Washington's current map strikes me as needlessly messy. There are multiple incidents of two districts sharing the same county, not one district is fully contained within King County, and I don't think WA-01 is even contiguous by road. I don't know a lot of background info about dynamics of the last redistricting cycle there, but I would expect better from a commission.

Anyway, here's what I came up with:



1: Clinton +7
2: Clinton +36
3: Trump +8
4: Trump +23 (39% Hispanic)
5: Trump +13
6: Clinton +12
7: Clinton +77
8: Clinton +5
9: Clinton +40 (48% white)
10: Clinton +13

Not much change from a partisan standpoint, but a lot cleaner. Northern WA gets its own seat, as does Pierce County. All of Seattle is in the 7th, and the 9th is all-King County suburbs while still being minority-majority. As was mentioned, there's no good way to cross the Cascades, so I figured sticking with I-90 made the most sense. For all the oddities of the current map, I think the 8th district is about as sensible as it can be.

(I double-crossed 4 and 5 here because of the wacky precincts in Walla Walla, which is of course not necessary.)

Did you take into account incumbent residences? It looks like Larsen lives in your 1st (whereas according to Wikipedia, he doesn't live in his current seat) but I'm unsure if your 2nd reaches down far enough to take in DelBene's home.

I think you've also shifted Kilmer out of the 6th and obviously we don't know about the 10th yet, but that all seems like it would be fairly easy to fix.

I didn't consider incumbent homes, as I don't believe that truly fair maps should. I know California's commission is prohibited from considering them, but I'm not sure if Washington has the same rule or if they in fact actively consider them.

DelBene's tiny hometown is on the border of my 2nd but just outside of it in the 9th, so that could be changed with few implications. Kilmer is in my 10th, but could be put in the 6th while keeping all of the 10th in Pierce (perhaps by shifting the lines in Thurston).

[Oryxslayer]

Washington's current map strikes me as needlessly messy. There are multiple incidents of two districts sharing the same county, not one district is fully contained within King County, and I don't think WA-01 is even contiguous by road. I don't know a lot of background info about dynamics of the last redistricting cycle there, but I would expect better from a commission.

Anyway, here's what I came up with:



1: Clinton +7
2: Clinton +36
3: Trump +8
4: Trump +23 (39% Hispanic)
5: Trump +13
6: Clinton +12
7: Clinton +77
8: Clinton +5
9: Clinton +40 (48% white)
10: Clinton +13

Not much change from a partisan standpoint, but a lot cleaner. Northern WA gets its own seat, as does Pierce County. All of Seattle is in the 7th, and the 9th is all-King County suburbs while still being minority-majority. As was mentioned, there's no good way to cross the Cascades, so I figured sticking with I-90 made the most sense. For all the oddities of the current map, I think the 8th district is about as sensible as it can be.

(I double-crossed 4 and 5 here because of the wacky precincts in Walla Walla, which is of course not necessary.)

Did you take into account incumbent residences? It looks like Larsen lives in your 1st (whereas according to Wikipedia, he doesn't live in his current seat) but I'm unsure if your 2nd reaches down far enough to take in DelBene's home.

I think you've also shifted Kilmer out of the 6th and obviously we don't know about the 10th yet, but that all seems like it would be fairly easy to fix.

I didn't consider incumbent homes, as I don't believe that truly fair maps should. I know California's commission is prohibited from considering them, but I'm not sure if Washington has the same rule or if they in fact actively consider them.

DelBene's tiny hometown is on the border of my 2nd but just outside of it in the 9th, so that could be changed with few implications. Kilmer is in my 10th, but could be put in the 6th while keeping all of the 10th in Pierce (perhaps by shifting the lines in Thurston).

Washington's commission is 100% legislative appointments, 1 from each majority and minority leader. Since it is an even number, there needs to be compromise. This not just tilts but slants maps towards incumbent protection, but last time one GOP appointee ran laps around the other 3. Therefore, the GOP got more of what they wanted from the protection.

[Seattle]

Washington's commission is 100% legislative appointments, 1 from each majority and minority leader. Since it is an even number, there needs to be compromise. This not just tilts but slants maps towards incumbent protection, but last time one GOP appointee ran laps around the other 3. Therefore, the GOP got more of what they wanted from the protection.

And he's still kicking.

[Seattle]

Washington Democrats should try to use the VRA to create a Hispanic legislative seat in Yakima county

Creates a very nice Rotten borough hispanic district for Democrat which is +10 clinton
Despite the purple area having 2/3 the population of green district it has 20k more total votes.

IIRC they sort of made one last time.

The Hispanic seat is still Trump +9 btw and has been Safe R. I mean I don't see a reason why a court wouldn't draw it if there's even a slight push for a Hispanic farming VRA seat.

Yeah for whatever reason it seems like last time WA redistricting played out as the most Republican possible version of fair districts, in much the same way that AZ shook out unfavorably for the GOP.

I'll have to find my version of this district, it's a little neater. I don't have high hopes for a non-incumbent favoring map from the commission, but I really do hope we get a better one (from both a partisan and also clean map perspective).

I don't think WA congresscritters are required to live in their own districts. At least, I'm pretty sure Jayapal lives just barely in the 9th.

[lfromnj]

Washington Democrats should try to use the VRA to create a Hispanic legislative seat in Yakima county

Creates a very nice Rotten borough hispanic district for Democrat which is +10 clinton
Despite the purple area having 2/3 the population of green district it has 20k more total votes.

IIRC they sort of made one last time.

The Hispanic seat is still Trump +9 btw and has been Safe R. I mean I don't see a reason why a court wouldn't draw it if there's even a slight push for a Hispanic farming VRA seat.

Yeah for whatever reason it seems like last time WA redistricting played out as the most Republican possible version of fair districts, in much the same way that AZ shook out unfavorably for the GOP.

AZ legislative actually abused population deviation lol which was crazy.

[Seattle]

I need to do a lot of work cleaning things up and fixing other spots, but I am happy with my 67% Hispanic (also 7% native) Yakima seat!