2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here is my 10-3 Dem Washington Congressional map. I roughly based this map from the current boundaries with some modifications.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f9d0fcd9-7aae-4c4e-9cc8-2e1e7d7cd6e2

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here is my 10-3 Dem Washington Congressional map. I roughly based this map from the current boundaries with some modifications.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f9d0fcd9-7aae-4c4e-9cc8-2e1e7d7cd6e2

I like that 6th quite a bit.

[Nyvin]

Same map I posted earlier in the year, just updated to Census numbers -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/534f7eb1-2cd7-4f20-a8ef-92d05b43a1fc

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

You can make a 10-0 D map in Washington.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/186bad5e-12e3-4f09-b35b-c3d27857c7e6

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

Here's a nice Washington map--not exactly sure about the Tacoma area but I think everything else works well.





The Tacoma area is a little tricky to justify, but IMO it's just as much of a boondoggle as putting Tacoma's eastern suburbs into the 9th.

Putting Tacoma's eastern suburbs  into the 9th is not the only option. You could also put Tacoma into the 10th, put eastern Pierce into the 8th, then move some Eastside areas from the 8th to the 9th. I find that to be the best way to configure those three districts. The rest is almost exactly the way I'd draw a map with the 3rd crossing the Cascades.

[Damocles]

You can make a 10-0 D map in Washington.

snip

Uh, hello? Based department?

[BoiseBoy]

Legislative map proposals are coming today, with congressional proposals on September 28:

https://www.redistricting.wa.gov/proposed-maps

[Gass3268]

Legislative map proposals are coming today, with congressional proposals on September 28:

https://www.redistricting.wa.gov/proposed-maps

https://twitter.com/WAHouseDems/status/1440397655599824911?s=20

[RI]

I can't speak for the entire maps without running numbers, but based on Snohomish County, the Fain map is a hack R map (lol at lumping Everett and Mill Creek together to take out 3+ Dem incumbents)  whereas the Walkinshaw map makes the most sense as an incumbent protection map. The Sims map looks somewhat reasonable but D-leaning while the Graves map looks somewhat okay but quite R-leaning.

[LimoLiberal]

Congressional maps should be out any minute now...

[Oryxslayer]

Congressional maps should be out any minute now...

They are out

[Oryxslayer]

First Glace:

Sims map is 7-3, Incumbent protection. Cleans up border between 2 and 1, 8 gets a bunch of the East suburbs.

Graves map is a balls to the walls R gerry. 1 takes the cross-cascades rurals along with the northern bits already, 8 reorients to the republican leadning south suburbs, 6 is made marginal Dem without Takoma.

Piñero Walkinshaw map does some major changes to the eastern seats, west remains incumbent Portect. CD 3 gets some of the R suburbs between Olympia and Takoma. Cleans up districts 1 and 2, 8/9 is more messy to make 9 compact.

Fain map is a R gerry, but tries some weird stuff in the south. 10 gets both Olympia and Takoma, so 6 gets more rurals. 8 gets all the far rurals of the north presently in exchange for suburbs. I think this is still 7-3 whereas Graves is 6-4.

https://twitter.com/LillianBelle2/status/1442932719319613442?s=20

[Nyvin]

Fain's (Senate R) WA-8 is downright absurd...crossing a bunch of mountain valleys to make a tilt D district?  Yeah, I don't think so.

At least the Graves (House R) map has WA-1 going through the highways in that area.

[Oryxslayer]

Reminder that these maps are the starting points. The final map in 2010 was not one of the four proposed, it was pieced out from the four plans. With this in mind, the takeaway should be that the dem line is incumbent protection, and the Republican one is something a bit more but to what degree.

To this point, the GOP maps are not even equal in population.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Reps went for the aggressive gerrymander and Dems completely threw the ball. How stupid is the WA Democratic party??

There sure as heck shouldn't be any "compromise" here. WA Democrats need to take a page from their Southern neighbors.

[kingcharlesvii]

Something to keep in mind for the Democrats is that the 3 R districts are all very distinct geographic areas and thus are rather hard to draw to be swingy or even lean Democrat. The D proposed maps are probably the best we could get while still keeping COI together and staying within the rules of the redistricting process regarding crossing city and county lines.

[Oryxslayer]

Something to keep in mind for the Democrats is that the 3 R districts are all very distinct geographic areas and thus are rather hard to draw to be swingy or even lean Democrat. The D proposed maps are probably the best we could get while still keeping COI together and staying within the rules of the redistricting process regarding crossing city and county lines.

Especially since one of the D maps isn't happy with just the 7 safe seats and tries to make the Spokane seat a future target.

[politicallefty]

I haven't played around with Washington in quite some time, but I think what bothers me most in the proposals is that they keep WA-08 crossing the Cascades. I'd rather see that district out of Eastern Washington. I know something has to cross between West and East, but I'd rather see WA-03 be that district.

[thebeloitmoderate]

 Interesting to see Dan Newhouse (one of the 10 gop congresspersons to impeach trump after 1/6) district largely intact even with the high Hispanic population in several communities in his district

[Non Swing Voter]

Washington seems like the type of state where city population growth would give Dems an opportunity for a pickup, but I guess not...  or Dems are just inept.

[Oryxslayer]

Washington seems like the type of state where city population growth would give Dems an opportunity for a pickup, but I guess not...  or Dems are just inept.

Where would it occur though? Two seats have to be east of the cascades, that's just demos. Dems can try to make one such seat a bit more competitive, which we see on plan 3. The third GOP seat is along the Oregon border, and everything including or south of Lewis county is basically enough for a third seat...but a GOP leaning one. You would have to carve up the Oregon border to get a reliably blue 8th seat.

Conversely though, you have to work to get the dems under 7, as we can see from the GOP maps. And it's very likely that if you follow community lines those 7 end up safe.

[Non Swing Voter]

Washington seems like the type of state where city population growth would give Dems an opportunity for a pickup, but I guess not...  or Dems are just inept.

Where would it occur though? Two seats have to be east of the cascades, that's just demos. Dems can try to make one such seat a bit more competitive, which we see on plan 3. The third GOP seat is along the Oregon border, and everything including or south of Lewis county is basically enough for a third seat...but a GOP leaning one. You would have to carve up the Oregon border to get a reliably blue 8th seat.

Conversely though, you have to work to get the dems under 7, as we can see from the GOP maps. And it's very likely that if you follow community lines those 7 end up safe.

That's the one I was thinking.  Is that the Buetler one?  Is there an issue with carving up the Oregon border? 

[Oryxslayer]

Washington seems like the type of state where city population growth would give Dems an opportunity for a pickup, but I guess not...  or Dems are just inept.

Where would it occur though? Two seats have to be east of the cascades, that's just demos. Dems can try to make one such seat a bit more competitive, which we see on plan 3. The third GOP seat is along the Oregon border, and everything including or south of Lewis county is basically enough for a third seat...but a GOP leaning one. You would have to carve up the Oregon border to get a reliably blue 8th seat.

Conversely though, you have to work to get the dems under 7, as we can see from the GOP maps. And it's very likely that if you follow community lines those 7 end up safe.

That's the one I was thinking.  Is that the Buetler one?  Is there an issue with carving up the Oregon border? 

If you are gerrymandering I don't think so, though the centers of democratic strength are a bit distant and the near ones like Olympia and Takoma are a bit small. However, such a proposal would never survive the Washington redistricting process, so discussion therefore remains hypothetical.

[Tintrlvr]

Washington seems like the type of state where city population growth would give Dems an opportunity for a pickup, but I guess not...  or Dems are just inept.

Where would it occur though? Two seats have to be east of the cascades, that's just demos. Dems can try to make one such seat a bit more competitive, which we see on plan 3. The third GOP seat is along the Oregon border, and everything including or south of Lewis county is basically enough for a third seat...but a GOP leaning one. You would have to carve up the Oregon border to get a reliably blue 8th seat.

Conversely though, you have to work to get the dems under 7, as we can see from the GOP maps. And it's very likely that if you follow community lines those 7 end up safe.

A reliably blue 8th seat, yes, but actually population trends now allow for the Oregon border seat to be the Cascade-crosser without having to split the city of Yakima, which didn't used to be the case and would definitely be an arguable alternative to crossing the Cascades at Ellensburg. And crossing the Cascades along the Columbia is hugely advantageous for the Democrats as southern Yakima County is strongly Democratic (mostly Hispanic and Native). The Democrats on the Commission definitely should have been proposing the map below, which creates another Biden seat while leaving all of the Democratic incumbents safe (the parts north of Olympia don't really matter for this purpose; they could do them however they wanted re: incumbent protection but I went for logical COIs, minimal splitting of municipalities and road connections (e.g., Skykomish)).

The border seat is Biden+1; the remaining Democratic seats are Biden+10 (Olympia/Olympic peninsula), Biden+15 (Bellingham/Everett), Biden+20 (Tacoma) or more.

My split between the two eastern districts was intended to maximize the Hispanic population in the Tri-Cities/Yakima district, by the way, not that it really matters.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/bcdd0517-4570-467b-b3bb-a8ed3f174204

Edit: Improved the Tacoma-area map for the Democrats a bit.

[politicallefty]

A reliably blue 8th seat, yes, but actually population trends now allow for the Oregon border seat to be the Cascade-crosser without having to split the city of Yakima, which didn't used to be the case and would definitely be an arguable alternative to crossing the Cascades at Ellensburg. And crossing the Cascades along the Columbia is hugely advantageous for the Democrats as southern Yakima County is strongly Democratic (mostly Hispanic and Native). The Democrats on the Commission definitely should have been proposing the map below, which creates another Biden seat while leaving all of the Democratic incumbents safe (the parts north of Olympia don't really matter for this purpose; they could do them however they wanted re: incumbent protection but I went for logical COIs, minimal splitting of municipalities and road connections (e.g., Skykomish)).

The border seat is Biden+1; the remaining Democratic seats are Biden+10 (Olympia/Olympic peninsula), Biden+15 (Bellingham/Everett), Biden+20 (Tacoma) or more.

Seeing WA-03 go into Yakima County explains why Republicans would definitely not be fans of such an idea (the current version is Trump+4 in 2020 and Trump+7 in 2016). I definitely agree that Democrats should be proposing such a plan. If anything's holding them back, it's that the Olympic Peninsula district would have to move into heavily Republican Lewis County. It's currently a Biden+18/Clinton+12 district. If you put all of Pacific County and Wahkiakum County into the Olympic Peninsula district (an idea I like because it creates an entirely coastal district), you can put the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County back into WA-03. If you also shift some precincts in Yakima County, the respective districts become Biden+11.4 and Trump+0.4.

You can also try something else by keeping all of Lewis County in WA-03 and moving WA-06 (your WA-04) into Cowlitz County and taking in the city of Longview. I'm strongly of the mind that only WA-03 should be crossing the West/East line. I used your map as a template and only edited the districts mentioned. The districts mentioned become Biden+13.2 and Trump+2.4: