2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My attempt at a fair map



https://davesredistricting.org/join/821d43c3-221e-4e42-9920-03adb99c888c

WA-01: Clinton+36, D+15
WA-02: Clinton+6, D+3
WA-03: Trump+8, R+4
WA-04: Trump+21, R+12
WA-05: Trump+13, R+8
WA-06: Clinton+11, D+6
WA-07: Clinton+16, D+7
WA-08: Clinton+29, D+10
WA-09: Clinton+78, D+37!!!!
WA-10: Clinton+11, D+5

In theory this map should work as a fairly standard 7-3 map, with districts 2 and 3 being swingy but still clearly benefiting one side over the other. Districts 6 and 10 might flip if there is both a scandal and a big R wave but they are unlikely to do so.

Finally district 9 (coverin Seattle) is a Dem landslide that borders on comical

I've never seen an Eastern Washington quite like that. So novelty points there.
More generally, taken as a whole, overall this is a decent map.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

My attempt at a fair map



https://davesredistricting.org/join/821d43c3-221e-4e42-9920-03adb99c888c

WA-01: Clinton+36, D+15
WA-02: Clinton+6, D+3
WA-03: Trump+8, R+4
WA-04: Trump+21, R+12
WA-05: Trump+13, R+8
WA-06: Clinton+11, D+6
WA-07: Clinton+16, D+7
WA-08: Clinton+29, D+10
WA-09: Clinton+78, D+37!!!!
WA-10: Clinton+11, D+5

In theory this map should work as a fairly standard 7-3 map, with districts 2 and 3 being swingy but still clearly benefiting one side over the other. Districts 6 and 10 might flip if there is both a scandal and a big R wave but they are unlikely to do so.

Finally district 9 (coverin Seattle) is a Dem landslide that borders on comical

I've never seen an Eastern Washington quite like that. So novelty points there.
More generally, taken as a whole, overall this is a decent map.

Yeah the I-90 corridor east of the Cascades looks a bit gerrymandered considering how blue WA-08 and how red WA-04 are.

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

My congressional map:


https://davesredistricting.org/join/ad76ad9b-9241-4757-94fb-71839c7faffc

1st: Snohomish County/N King County suburbs
Clinton+36, D+15

2nd: NW Washington + Snohomish county exurban areas
Clinton+6, D+3

3rd: SW Washington
Trump+8, R+4

4th: SE Washington
Trump+21, R+13 (38% Hispanic)

5th: NE Washington
Trump+14, R+8

6th: Olympic Peninsula + Olympia
Clinton+12, D+5

7th: Seattle + Vashon Island
Clinton+77, D+37

8th: E King/Pierce counties + Kittitas and Chelan
Clinton+11, D+3

9th: S King County suburbs
Clinton+34, D+15 (47% White)

10th: Tacoma + W Pierce County suburbs
Clinton+12, D+6


I'm still not exactly sure how I prefer to divide eastern Washington. One alternative is the north/south division I laid out here. But, it is also possible to put Douglas, Okanogan, and the rest of Grant county into the 4th in exchange for Adams, Asotin, Garfield, Columbia, and Walla Walla counties (basically, the map Phil posted upthread). That would create more of an east/west division. An intermediate version is also possible (something like what Water Hazard drew). Yet another variation would put Whitman county in the 4th in exchange for some of Grant county. I haven't settled on one of these alternatives over the others.

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

My attempt at a fair map



https://davesredistricting.org/join/821d43c3-221e-4e42-9920-03adb99c888c

WA-01: Clinton+36, D+15
WA-02: Clinton+6, D+3
WA-03: Trump+8, R+4
WA-04: Trump+21, R+12
WA-05: Trump+13, R+8
WA-06: Clinton+11, D+6
WA-07: Clinton+16, D+7
WA-08: Clinton+29, D+10
WA-09: Clinton+78, D+37!!!!
WA-10: Clinton+11, D+5

In theory this map should work as a fairly standard 7-3 map, with districts 2 and 3 being swingy but still clearly benefiting one side over the other. Districts 6 and 10 might flip if there is both a scandal and a big R wave but they are unlikely to do so.

Finally district 9 (coverin Seattle) is a Dem landslide that borders on comical

I've never seen an Eastern Washington quite like that. So novelty points there.
More generally, taken as a whole, overall this is a decent map.

Yeah the I-90 corridor east of the Cascades looks a bit gerrymandered considering how blue WA-08 and how red WA-04 are.

The Eastern WA section of District 8 does look a bit unusual, but is not gerrymandered imo. The 4th will be that red regardless and the partisanship of the 8th is largely determined by the lines on the west side. In this map, the westside portion of the 8th contains blue territory around Bellevue and Redmond, while the 7th takes in the redder areas to the south. Although the lines aren't what I would draw (the 7th and 10th do not appear to conform to typical COIs), the overall partisanship of the map seems fine.

[beesley]

 

https://davesredistricting.org/join/69864506-8535-4de7-8c55-b3bfb377511c

Here's my 'my definition of fair' map with the latest population data. The election data is the 2016 Presidential race. There are no majority-minority districts though most of the Asian population is in the one seat (7). The main changes are the realignment of the Seattle area, and the placing of Olympia into District 6. Larsen and DelBene would also likely swap districts. I was also pleased that there were no county splits in the east.

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

My attempt at legislative districts:



https://davesredistricting.org/join/18b3a452-a7e2-4632-995b-b02e0213a30c

Seattle area inset



I attempted to draw a fair map. My map is 31-18 Clinton and I believe 34-15 Biden. If I counted correctly, this means Ds would have won two less districts in each election than on Seattle's D-slanted map.

I tried to split the difference between the current SD15 (barely Hispanic-majority but Safe R) and Seattle's Hispanic-maximizing Safe D district. Mine is 64% Hispanic by total population, majority-minority but not quite plurality-Hispanic by CVAP, and blue-leaning but swingy. My SD-16 (like Seattle's SD-9) is majority-Hispanic by total population, but comfortably majority-white by CVAP and Safe R.

Beyond Eastern WA, I did not make any special effort to make majority-minority districts. 4 Western WA districts (11, 30, 33, 37) are majority-minority by total population, of which only 11 is majority-minority by CVAP. District 37 is actually close to being plurality-Asian, which is interesting. It is probably possible to draw a plurality-Asian district in the area. But, WA hasn't historically been very aggressive with drawing majority-minority districts so I didn't feel obligated to try.

Also: random PSA that Skykomish (northeasternmost precinct in King County) is not road-contiguous with the rest of the county. To drive between the two requires going through Snohomish County, or through Chelan and Kittitas County. Just thought I'd point this out since some recent maps have missed it.

[Seattle]

Took a little break there - time to return to the in-depth look of districts 26-49.




The new 26th is largely unchanged. The biggest difference is that all Bremerton is added in exchange for the loss of suburban Artondale and the non-Gig Harbor portions of Pierce County on the Kitsap peninsula. A very competitive district at the state level, Senator Emily Randall (D) won in 2018 by the skin of her teeth, while both House members are Republicans. The addition of Bremerton and D trends around Port Orchard/Southworth (new ferry connection downtown Seattle) and Gig Harbor make this seat slightly more D. This is Derek Kilmer's old state senate seat - so clearly the right kind of Dem can lock down the seat.

78% White, 7% Hispanic, 7% Asian, 5% Black

'16 President: 45.5% D - 44.4% R
'16 Governor: 47.8% D - 52.2% R
Tossup

Old District '16 President: 45.36% D - 45.35% R (Clinton by 10 votes, lol, District is now more D)




The urban Tacoma district becomes slightly less D by shedding some of South Tacoma to the 25th and pickup more marginal Fife/Milton/Waller. I expect this district to see a lot of population growth in the next 10 years as people are priced out of Seattle, but don't want to leave the region nor move to suburban/exurban areas.

66% White, 11% Black, 10% Asian, 10% Hispanic

'16 President: 62.4% D - 29.3% R
'16 Governor: 61.5% D - 38.5% R
Safe D

Old District '16 President: 65.2% D - 26.4% R (District is now more R)




The core of this district remains unchanged: University Place + western portions of Lakewood + Dupont + and JBLM. Some portions of Pierce County's Kitsap Peninsula are added in and Spanaway is taken out. Overall a D-swinging district that saw its R incumbent senator narrowly defeated in 2020 - he would still be out even with +.6% R change. District was probably around Biden +17.

66% White, 12% Black, 11% Asian, 10% Hispanic

'16 President: 52.5% D - 39.5% R
'16 Governor: 51.1% D - 48.9% R
Leans D

Old District '16 President: 52.6% D - 39.0% R (District is now slightly more R)




Barely majority-minority district that is demographically hurtling towards being one of the most diverse in the state. This contains most of South Tacoma, Parkland, and Spanaway. There's some border jenga with the 31st in unincorporated Pierce to maximize D precincts in the 31st.

49% White, 19% Black, 16% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 5% Pacific Islander (!)

'16 President: 54.2% D - 37.0% R
'16 Governor: 56.9% D - 43.1% R
Safe D

Old District '16 President: 54.5% D - 36.8% R (District is now slightly more R)




This district remained competitive for Rs up until 2014/2016. Since then it's been split roughly 60/40 D. It has a rapidly growing minority population. Federal Way in particular has seen significant growth of its Black population and in recent years local electeds have begun to reflect this change - both state reps are Black (this is also Kristine Reeves old district).

48% White, 19% Hispanic, 15% Black, 15% Asian

'16 President: 56.9% D - 35.8% R
'16 Governor: 56.0% D - 44.0% R
Safe D

Old District '16 President: 56.8% D - 36.0% R (District is now slightly more D)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yes, I am aware of the road contiguity issue with those two precincts in King County. I don't really care too much; it is just two precincts and that would result in an extra county split I don't want.
Big change is the Cascades crossing switching to the south. I tried to keep county splits to the near-minimum and compactness high, pairing urban with urban, unifying Seattle in one CD, and drawing two seats within the suburbs.
I also ended the majority-minority status of the 9th (if 2019 population estimates is anything to go by). It was an utterly useless idea anyway. That being said, the 9th still is likely majority-minority under eventual 2020 census figures and it boasts a very significant Asian minority.
The 8th remains competitive, and the 3rd becomes more winnable for Democrats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/924c96ba-3681-4252-9b98-ad4c3db9eac8

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Yes, I am aware of the road contiguity issue with those two precincts in King County. I don't really care too much; it is just two precincts and that would result in an extra county split I don't want.
Big change is the Cascades crossing switching to the south. I tried to keep county splits to the near-minimum and compactness high, pairing urban with urban, unifying Seattle in one CD, and drawing two seats within the suburbs.
I also ended the majority-minority status of the 9th (if 2019 population estimates is anything to go by). It was an utterly useless idea anyway. That being said, the 9th still is likely majority-minority under eventual 2020 census figures and it boasts a very significant Asian minority.
The 8th remains competitive, and the 3rd becomes more winnable for Democrats.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/924c96ba-3681-4252-9b98-ad4c3db9eac8

3rd district = northern suburbs from Kirkland all the way to Everett proper in Snohomish
7th district = all of Seattle proper + Vashon Island
9th district = remaining Eastside suburbs + "inner" South King County (includes Des Moines, all of Renton, and part of Kent)

8th district = Federal Way, Auburn, the rest of Kent, Puyallup, and the remaining outlying parts of King and Pierce Counties

Tacoma proper looks like it's split between 6 (Olympic Peninsula) and 10 (Thurston + Lewis)

[Sol]

Yes, I am aware of the road contiguity issue with those two precincts in King County. I don't really care too much; it is just two precincts and that would result in an extra county split I don't want.

The reason to avoid splitting counties is that counties are a proxy for communities, not due to any inherent feature of counties. Considering that the people of Skykomish have no connection to the rest of King County and have attempted to secede in the past, it's downright undemocratic to plop them into a King County district based on a lazy belief in county contiguity. Suck it up and move them into WA-01.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yes, I am aware of the road contiguity issue with those two precincts in King County. I don't really care too much; it is just two precincts and that would result in an extra county split I don't want.

The reason to avoid splitting counties is that counties are a proxy for communities, not due to any inherent feature of counties. Considering that the people of Skykomish have no connection to the rest of King County and have attempted to secede in the past, it's downright undemocratic to plop them into a King County district based on a lazy belief in county contiguity. Suck it up and move them into WA-01.

With all due respect, I do not strictly share all respects of your districting philosophy and have some different ideas and I'd appreciate it if you hewed to actual decorum and avoided melodrama.

[Nyvin]

Washington is fun to draw maps on for some reason.   I think the county arrangement here for WA-4 and WA-5 is near perfect.







https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe6e0511-a416-4dad-9f88-f3d9d28f15b1

[beesley]

Washington is fun to draw maps on for some reason.   I think the county arrangement here for WA-4 and WA-5 is near perfect.







https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe6e0511-a416-4dad-9f88-f3d9d28f15b1

This is the most interesting map of Washington I've seen. There's a few things I'd change but it works well.

[Nyvin]

Washington is fun to draw maps on for some reason.   I think the county arrangement here for WA-4 and WA-5 is near perfect.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe6e0511-a416-4dad-9f88-f3d9d28f15b1

Here's the 2020 Pres results, courtesy of Stuart98's youtube video

WA-1
52.52%  43.90%

WA-2
61.54%  35.21%

WA-3
47.24%  49.58%
   
WA-4
38.83%  57.89%
   
WA-5
45.74%  50.65%
   
WA-6
55.30%  41.07%
   
WA-7
88.15% 9.32%
   
WA-8
68.03%  28.91%
   
WA-9
55.29%   41.65%
   
WA-10
56.79%  39.45%

[cvparty]

Washington is fun to draw maps on for some reason.   I think the county arrangement here for WA-4 and WA-5 is near perfect.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe6e0511-a416-4dad-9f88-f3d9d28f15b1

Here's the 2020 Pres results, courtesy of Stuart98's youtube video

WA-1
52.52%  43.90%

WA-2
61.54%  35.21%

WA-3
47.24%  49.58%
   
WA-4
38.83%  57.89%
   
WA-5
45.74%  50.65%
   
WA-6
55.30%  41.07%
   
WA-7
88.15% 9.32%
   
WA-8
68.03%  28.91%
   
WA-9
55.29%   41.65%
   
WA-10
56.79%  39.45%

are you sure this is correct? 3 and 5 in particular stand out as like...impossible

[Nyvin]

are you sure this is correct? 3 and 5 in particular stand out as like...impossible

Your right.  I ran the excel file wrong.   I redid the numbers,  second times a charm I guess.   Sorry first time doing this.

WA-1   
55.52%   40.97%
   
WA-2   
63.46%   33.28%
   
WA-3   
46.33%   50.50%
   
WA-4   
40.06%   56.75%
   
WA-5   
43.22%   53.27%
   
WA-6   
56.29%   40.04%
   
WA-7   
88.25%   9.32%
   
WA-8   
67.70%   29.20%
   
WA-9   
56.89%   40.08%
   
WA-10   
56.79%   39.45%

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What do people think is going to happen to the WA-03.

[Sol]

What do people think is going to happen to the WA-03.

A lot depends on what they do with the Cascades. If we have something close to the current map, or a map where WA-03 is the only district traversing the Cascades, then it'll probably be pretty much equivalent to the current map. This is probably the best scenario with regards to CoI tbh.

But if they decide to use just Snoqualmie pass, WA-03 will have to go further north which could definitely shake stuff up.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What do people think is going to happen to the WA-03.

A lot depends on what they do with the Cascades. If we have something close to the current map, or a map where WA-03 is the only district traversing the Cascades, then it'll probably be pretty much equivalent to the current map. This is probably the best scenario with regards to CoI tbh.

But if they decide to use just Snoqualmie pass, WA-03 will have to go further north which could definitely shake stuff up.

What would the partisan effect of that be ?

[Sol]

What do people think is going to happen to the WA-03.

A lot depends on what they do with the Cascades. If we have something close to the current map, or a map where WA-03 is the only district traversing the Cascades, then it'll probably be pretty much equivalent to the current map. This is probably the best scenario with regards to CoI tbh.

But if they decide to use just Snoqualmie pass, WA-03 will have to go further north which could definitely shake stuff up.

What would the partisan effect of that be ?

My apologies--I somehow thought that WA-03 went into Yakima on the current map.

Either way though, it doesn't seem like there's much of a partisan effect playing it out--the version which goes into the city of Yakima is the most Democratic since Yakima's a good bit more D than Lewis County.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What do people think is going to happen to the WA-03.

A lot depends on what they do with the Cascades. If we have something close to the current map, or a map where WA-03 is the only district traversing the Cascades, then it'll probably be pretty much equivalent to the current map. This is probably the best scenario with regards to CoI tbh.

But if they decide to use just Snoqualmie pass, WA-03 will have to go further north which could definitely shake stuff up.

What would the partisan effect of that be ?

My apologies--I somehow thought that WA-03 went into Yakima on the current map.

Either way though, it doesn't seem like there's much of a partisan effect playing it out--the version which goes into the city of Yakima is the most Democratic since Yakima's a good bit more D than Lewis County.

It's best for Dems if WA-08 is wholly within King, forcing a rotation of CDs resulting in the 3rd picking up Yakima.

[Sol]

Here's a nice Washington map--not exactly sure about the Tacoma area but I think everything else works well.





The Tacoma area is a little tricky to justify, but IMO it's just as much of a boondoggle as putting Tacoma's eastern suburbs into the 9th.

[politicallefty]

When DRA first came out, Washington was the first and only state. I spent a lot of time back then drawing a 9-district map. I came up with some very neat and orderly maps. A 10-district map has always been messy because of the East/West divide. I definitely want to draw a new one soon, but I always preferred crossing WA-03 along the Oregon border and avoiding the WA-08 crossing of the Cascades. The map above actually isn't too far off from I'd propose, but I would make a few changes. I do particularly like the WA-06 and WA-03 in terms of a fair map.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Here's a nice Washington map--not exactly sure about the Tacoma area but I think everything else works well.





The Tacoma area is a little tricky to justify, but IMO it's just as much of a boondoggle as putting Tacoma's eastern suburbs into the 9th.

Lumping in Tacoma proper with South King County is justifiable on socioeconomic grounds IMO

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair 10-district map of Washington state.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.02%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

79/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
64/100 on the Compactness Index
71/100 on County Splitting
19/100 on the Minority Representation index (regular PNW state)
47/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (very surprised I made one this high!)

The map above shows results from the 2016 U.S. Senate Election in Washington state (the closest to the 2020 U.S. Presidential election out of the choices given).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 Washington state Attorney General Election: 10D

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Washington state: 7D to 3R

2016 Washington state Lieutenant Governor Election: 5D to 5R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Washington state: 7D to 3R

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Washington state: 6D to 4R


Opinions?