2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why did the court allow it

[Roll Roons]

Why did the court allow it

Given the partisanship of the state, it seems fair. You have five Safe D districts, two Safe R and two swing districts - one that leans D and one that leans R. JHB's strength makes WA-03 look more Republican than it actually is.

[lfromnj]

Why did the court allow it

Because why would a court want to get involved when a bipartisan map had all but passed ?

[GALeftist]

Profoundly lame.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why did the court allow it

Given the partisanship of the state, it seems fair. You have five Safe D districts, two Safe R and two swing districts - one that leans D and one that leans R. JHB's strength makes WA-03 look more Republican than it actually is.

Washington's natural political geography would entail a 7-3 or even 7-2-1 map. If we let natural geographic bias play to the GOP's favor in states like PA and WI, then I don't see why we shouldn't let it play to the Dems' favor here.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like Dems are giving up another seat in 2022 (WA-08).  Morons.

[BoiseBoy]

Is there a DRA map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cc4e7f00-13c1-4bd7-ac7a-1019ad86d176

[GALeftist]

Is there a DRA map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cc4e7f00-13c1-4bd7-ac7a-1019ad86d176

Yuck, the 8th voted for Loren Culp. Probably +1 for the GOP in 2022.

[BoiseBoy]

WA-01: Biden +30.4 (D +9.6 from old lines)
WA-02: Biden +22.7 (R +4.2 from old lines)
WA-03: Trump +4.2 (R +0.5 from old lines)
WA-04: Trump +16.9 (D +1.2 from old lines)
WA-05: Trump +9.9 (R+0.9 from old lines)
WA-06: Biden +17.1 (D +0.3 from old lines)
WA-07: Biden +75.1 (D +2.1 from old lines)
WA-08: Biden +6.7 (D +0.2 from old lines)
WA-09: Biden +44.7 (R+ 3.8 from old lines)
WA-10: Biden +17.6 (D +2.2 from old lines)

In total, six districts shifted to the left, while four districts shifted to the right. The average shift per district was D +0.62.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Is there a DRA map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cc4e7f00-13c1-4bd7-ac7a-1019ad86d176

Yuck, the 8th voted for Loren Culp. Probably +1 for the GOP in 2022.

I still don’t understand why there were a lot of Asian Biden-Culpvoters (as pre-election poll crosstabs seemed to suggest), despite my sympathy to the idea of anti-establishment protest votes in Ultra Safe D states. Not that there would have been very many of them in the new 8th district, even if it includes more of Issaquah and Sammamish than I’m thinking.

[Tekken_Guy]

I wonder if WA-06 or WA-10 have upset potential for the GOP.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if WA-06 or WA-10 have upset potential for the GOP.

Biden + 17 and 18.  Even in 2018, Dems didn’t pick up any districts that Trump carried by a margin that large.

[Tekken_Guy]

I wonder if WA-06 or WA-10 have upset potential for the GOP.

Biden + 17 and 18.  Even in 2018, Dems didn’t pick up any districts that Trump carried by a margin that large.

Weill they got up to Trump+15 in NY-22. They fell just short.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if WA-06 or WA-10 have upset potential for the GOP.

Biden + 17 and 18.  Even in 2018, Dems didn’t pick up any districts that Trump carried by a margin that large.

Weill they got up to Trump+15 in NY-22. They fell just short.

Neither of these districts are as elastic as NY-22 and the incumbents are no where near as polarizing as Claudia Tenney.  A Tom Reed type would have had no trouble in NY-22.

[Tekken_Guy]

I wonder if WA-06 or WA-10 have upset potential for the GOP.

Biden + 17 and 18.  Even in 2018, Dems didn’t pick up any districts that Trump carried by a margin that large.

Weill they got up to Trump+15 in NY-22. They fell just short.

Neither of these districts are as elastic as NY-22 and the incumbents are no where near as polarizing as Claudia Tenney.  A Tom Reed type would have had no trouble in NY-22.

What about OK-05 or NY-11?

[Crumpets]

Is there a DRA map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cc4e7f00-13c1-4bd7-ac7a-1019ad86d176

Yuck, the 8th voted for Loren Culp. Probably +1 for the GOP in 2022.

I still don’t understand why there were a lot of Asian Biden-Culpvoters (as pre-election poll crosstabs seemed to suggest), despite my sympathy to the idea of anti-establishment protest votes in Ultra Safe D states. Not that there would have been very many of them in the new 8th district, even if it includes more of Issaquah and Sammamish than I’m thinking.

I don't know about Asian voters specifically, but it's pretty clear that Culp was both a lot more popular in Washington than Trump has ever been and that Inslee was a lot more hated by Republicans than Biden has ever been. If they were already moderate Republicans, it's not hard to see why they would find Trump unacceptable but also hate Inslee enough to vote for Culp.

Personally, I'm not too worried about WA-8. Those suburbs are rocketing leftward and there's not a ton of room for Republican growth, even if depressed turnout among traditional Democratic groups is factored in. It's still close enough that Republicans might be able to pull off a win in 2022, but it'd very likely be the last time they manage it unless the national realignment either changes or reverses suddenly.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if WA-06 or WA-10 have upset potential for the GOP.

Biden + 17 and 18.  Even in 2018, Dems didn’t pick up any districts that Trump carried by a margin that large.

Weill they got up to Trump+15 in NY-22. They fell just short.

Neither of these districts are as elastic as NY-22 and the incumbents are no where near as polarizing as Claudia Tenney.  A Tom Reed type would have had no trouble in NY-22.

What about OK-05 or NY-11?

NY-11 was only Trump + 10 while OK-05 was Trump + 13, but trending Dem, and the Dem candidate for governor won it by double digits.

[Sestak]

Very funny that “fair maps” = geography in WI and drawing proportionally is a Dem gerrymander but “fair maps” in WA are proportional and drawing according to geographic advantage is a Dem gerrymander.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Is there a DRA map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cc4e7f00-13c1-4bd7-ac7a-1019ad86d176

Yuck, the 8th voted for Loren Culp. Probably +1 for the GOP in 2022.

I still don’t understand why there were a lot of Asian Biden-Culp voters (as pre-election poll crosstabs seemed to suggest), despite my sympathy to the idea of anti-establishment protest votes in Ultra Safe D states. Not that there would have been very many of them in the new 8th district, even if it includes more of Issaquah and Sammamish than I’m thinking.

I don't know about Asian voters specifically, but it's pretty clear that Culp was both a lot more popular in Washington than Trump has ever been and that Inslee was a lot more hated by Republicans than Biden has ever been. If they were already moderate Republicans, it's not hard to see why they would find Trump unacceptable but also hate Inslee enough to vote for Culp.

Personally, I'm not too worried about WA-8. Those suburbs are rocketing leftward and there's not a ton of room for Republican growth, even if depressed turnout among traditional Democratic groups is factored in. It's still close enough that Republicans might be able to pull off a win in 2022, but it'd very likely be the last time they manage it unless the national realignment either changes or reverses suddenly.

Yeah now that I've had a chance to check out the DRA link, I can clearly see that WA-8 will contain all of Sammamish and Issaquah, as well as parts of Kent and Auburn (and also all of Mt Rainier National Park in Pierce County, it looks like)

[lfromnj]

Is there a DRA map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cc4e7f00-13c1-4bd7-ac7a-1019ad86d176

Yuck, the 8th voted for Loren Culp. Probably +1 for the GOP in 2022.

I still don’t understand why there were a lot of Asian Biden-Culpvoters (as pre-election poll crosstabs seemed to suggest), despite my sympathy to the idea of anti-establishment protest votes in Ultra Safe D states. Not that there would have been very many of them in the new 8th district, even if it includes more of Issaquah and Sammamish than I’m thinking.

I don't know about Asian voters specifically, but it's pretty clear that Culp was both a lot more popular in Washington than Trump has ever been and that Inslee was a lot more hated by Republicans than Biden has ever been. If they were already moderate Republicans, it's not hard to see why they would find Trump unacceptable but also hate Inslee enough to vote for Culp.

Personally, I'm not too worried about WA-8. Those suburbs are rocketing leftward and there's not a ton of room for Republican growth, even if depressed turnout among traditional Democratic groups is factored in. It's still close enough that Republicans might be able to pull off a win in 2022, but it'd very likely be the last time they manage it unless the national realignment either changes or reverses suddenly.

I mean it certainly is a district that is trending leftwards but the current seat was like Obama +3, Clinton +3 and Biden +6.5 Hardly an extreme trend.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ds should very likely hold WA-08 in 2022, given they have the incumbency bonus. The seat has actually gotten slightly more Democratic, so these lines are a net positive for Democrats' hopes of holding on here.

[lfromnj]

https://richmond.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/incumbents-are-an-afterthought-in-proposed-maps-for-state-house-and-senate/article_634d3898-390f-550d-9146-be16d282754f.html

Likely what causes the commision to work in WA.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1487171342336237573?s=20&t=01NcCNU1...

By law these changes have to be small and require 2/3s votes. No map of edits currently to be found.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1487171342336237573?s=20&t=01NcCNU1...
By law these changes have to be small and require 2/3s votes. No map of edits currently to be found.

Who wants to read the bill itself and try to recreate the map based on the list of blocks per district? 

[Antonio the Sixth]

If it's a bipartisan bill, I assume it's a bunch of harmless tweaks?