2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[RI]

Who ever thought crossing the Cascade Range that far North was a good idea?? Admittedly that's a product of the last decade's redistricting, but still, WHY??

It contains two of the three most traveled Cascade crossings. It's not as coherent as crossing at the Columbia, but it's not that bad.

[Oryxslayer]

Who ever thought crossing the Cascade Range that far North was a good idea?? Admittedly that's a product of the last decade's redistricting, but still, WHY??

Who ever thought crossing the Cascade Range that far North was a good idea?? Admittedly that's a product of the last decade's redistricting, but still, WHY??

It contains two of the three most traveled Cascade crossings. It's not as coherent as crossing at the Columbia, but it's not that bad.

Also why does the 4th and 5th need to be split like that when North and South makes so much more sense ?

A lot of this is mainly holdover from the last map - radical changes should not be expected when the only people with the pen are partisan appointees.

I also personally like crossing using Highway 2, but that's my personal preference for the Seattle Media market (given there are no other cross-cascades COIs).

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

It's hard to tell with a blurry image, but this WA-08 is almost exactly the same partisan-wise as the previous. A bit less from the east and a deal more Seattle suburbs counteract the Peirce stuff. Similarly, basically the exact same WA-03. Not radical changes.  

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

We don't know that. We won't know that for a while.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

We don't know that. We won't know that for a while.

She’s gone in anything less than a 54% Biden district, which this almost certainly is.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

We don't know that. We won't know that for a while.

She’s gone in anything less than a 54% Biden district, which this almost certainly is.

Are you lowering expectations for 2022 pre-emptively just to ensure there is a 0% chance you're going to be disappointed?

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

We don't know that. We won't know that for a while.

She’s gone in anything less than a 54% Biden district, which this almost certainly is.

Are you lowering expectations for 2022 pre-emptively just to ensure there is a 0% chance you're going to be disappointed?

I’m being realistic.  I’m expecting about an R+7 national popular vote which means that Dems probably lose most districts where Biden got less than 55%.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

We don't know that. We won't know that for a while.

She’s gone in anything less than a 54% Biden district, which this almost certainly is.

Are you lowering expectations for 2022 pre-emptively just to ensure there is a 0% chance you're going to be disappointed?

I’m being realistic.  I’m expecting about an R+7 national popular vote which means that Dems probably lose most districts where Biden got less than 55%.

Your way too confident in that. R + 7 is a reasonable overall projection, but there’s also a chance it could be R + 10 or R + 4. If it’s on the better end of the potential outcome, an incumbent in a Biden + 8ish seat def has a chance

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

Why the hell are Dems agreeing to a map that doesn’t shore up WA-08?  Schrier is gone in 2022 under this map.

We don't know that. We won't know that for a while.

She’s gone in anything less than a 54% Biden district, which this almost certainly is.

Are you lowering expectations for 2022 pre-emptively just to ensure there is a 0% chance you're going to be disappointed?

I’m being realistic.  I’m expecting about an R+7 national popular vote which means that Dems probably lose most districts where Biden got less than 55%.

Your way too confident in that. R + 7 is a reasonable overall projection, but there’s also a chance it could be R + 10 or R + 4. If it’s on the better end of the potential outcome, an incumbent in a Biden + 8ish seat def has a chance

I think the new WA-08 is like Biden + 5. 

[RI]

https://twitter.com/Jim_Brunner/status/1460654574763581443

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Jim_Brunner/status/1460654574763581443

Like is there no map at all or is this just the fact they were 90 seconds late?

[RI]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictingWA/status/1460664095129026560

Horrible.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictingWA/status/1460664095129026560

Horrible.

How about competence or transparency? Can it also be forthcoming?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This has just been awful. There was so little transparency I didn’t realize they were voting on final maps until yesterday, then when I watch the meeting the immediately dissapear, only to vote on something last minute even though we have no clue what it was. We’re not even sure if the map posted earlier in the thread is the actual map or not.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what happens now? Does the buck pass to the legislature, or the Supreme Court? Or does the commission just keep trying until we get to the new election cycle?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Where's your god girlboss now, bgwah?

[RI]

So what happens now? Does the buck pass to the legislature, or the Supreme Court? Or does the commission just keep trying until we get to the new election cycle?

I have to imagine it's going to the courts. Even if they claim they agreed on something, their secretive, last-second actions have opened themselves up to lawsuits from any aggrieved party who doesn't like the maps they've drawn.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So what happens now? Does the buck pass to the legislature, or the Supreme Court? Or does the commission just keep trying until we get to the new election cycle?

I have to imagine it's going to the courts. Even if they claim they agreed on something, their secretive, last-second actions have opened themselves up to lawsuits from any aggrieved party who doesn't like the maps they've drawn.

Oh boy. Well, let's see how that goes. Maybe the Courts will be able to draw a better map than any of the 4 originally proposed. Hope springs eternal.

[Oryxslayer]

So what happens now? Does the buck pass to the legislature, or the Supreme Court? Or does the commission just keep trying until we get to the new election cycle?

The commission shall complete redistricting as soon as possible following the federal decennial census, but no later than November 15th of each year ending in one. At least three of the voting members shall approve such a redistricting plan. If three of the voting members of the commission fail to approve a plan within the time limitations provided in this subsection, the supreme court shall adopt a plan by April 30th of the year ending in two in conformance with the standards set forth in subsection (5) of this section.

Given that it's all Dem appointees across the state courts, perhaps expect them to either pick one of the the original two D plans or bring in a expert to do a full remap, which would be the only way we would get a south cascades split for those that desire such an action.

[Mr.Phips]

So what happens now? Does the buck pass to the legislature, or the Supreme Court? Or does the commission just keep trying until we get to the new election cycle?

The commission shall complete redistricting as soon as possible following the federal decennial census, but no later than November 15th of each year ending in one. At least three of the voting members shall approve such a redistricting plan. If three of the voting members of the commission fail to approve a plan within the time limitations provided in this subsection, the supreme court shall adopt a plan by April 30th of the year ending in two in conformance with the standards set forth in subsection (5) of this section.

Given that it's all Dem appointees across the state courts, perhaps expect them to either pick one of the the original two D plans or bring in a expert to do a full remap, which would be the only way we would get a south cascades split for those that desire such an action.

Dems shouldn’t agree on any map that doesn’t make WA-08 at least Biden + 10.  Punt it to the state Supreme Court if they can’t get this.

[RI]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictingWA/status/1460682618739965953

[Stuart98]

What a disaster. Dems should either scrap the committee or reform it into something less dysfunctional. The only other commission that just didn't work the way this one didn't is Virginia's, which was designed to fail, so I'm skeptical there aren't serious structural issues with this one.

[Gass3268]

Didn't realize how awesome the Washington State Supreme Court was!

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1460685492408578049?s=20

[S019]

Court maps tend to lean towards status quo/incumbent protection and also standards like compactness, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see WA-08 shed at least some of its Republican territory and contract further into King.

[S019]

What a disaster. Dems should either scrap the committee or reform it into something less dysfunctional. The only other commission that just didn't work the way this one didn't is Virginia's, which was designed to fail, so I'm skeptical there aren't serious structural issues with this one.

This one has historically worked well, but Dems got outmaneuvered badly last time, so I guess they picked more partisan appointees which led to the deadlock.