2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[politicallefty]

So, a soft Republican gerrymander just like last decade when a Democrat defected? That's the only reason WA-08 crosses the Cascades. From what I understand/read, the maps can be amended with a supermajority in the Legislature (which Democrats do not have). Other than that, the only recourse is the WA Supreme Court.

[RI]

They're going to push this right to the end, aren't they? Ugh.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I thought WA does pro-incumbent gerrymanders...

[BoiseBoy]

Well we're less than 90 minutes away from the deadline and there is still ZERO insight as to what is going on or whether the commission will even finish their maps tonight.

They posted the first drafts nearly two months ago, and it seems they have done no work since then to refine anything or learn the mapping tools they're using. The public is getting no opportunity to see what sort of tweaking they're doing.

This is absolute stunningly pathetic incompetence on display.

[Stuart98]

Well we're less than 90 minutes away from the deadline and there is still ZERO insight as to what is going on or whether the commission will even finish their maps tonight.

They posted the first drafts nearly two months ago, and it seems they have done no work since then to refine anything or learn the mapping tools they're using. The public is getting no opportunity to see what sort of tweaking they're doing.

This is absolute stunningly pathetic incompetence on display.

Is this a case of the law behind the commission being flawed, or does the fault lie with the commissioners themselves?

[BoiseBoy]

Well we're less than 90 minutes away from the deadline and there is still ZERO insight as to what is going on or whether the commission will even finish their maps tonight.

They posted the first drafts nearly two months ago, and it seems they have done no work since then to refine anything or learn the mapping tools they're using. The public is getting no opportunity to see what sort of tweaking they're doing.

This is absolute stunningly pathetic incompetence on display.

Is this a case of the law behind the commission being flawed, or does the fault lie with the commissioners themselves?

I'm not completely knowledgeable on the law itself in this case, but I think the blame is fully on the individual commissioners. If they don't submit their final maps by 11:59 PST then they've missed the deadline and I believe the maps must be court-drawn.

Also, on possible partisan defectors:

https://twitter.com/LillianBelle2/status/1460492295162118148?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

There is about 15 minutes to go and it does not seem like they will have a set of maps prepared by the deadline. They just went to a final 5 minute caucus before a final vote to advance, so it will be really damn close.

[RI]

They voted on... something?

[BoiseBoy]

The final vote for the transmittal letter was completed about 90 seconds after the deadline passed.

No clue what congressional or legislative maps were voted on. Nothing was shown.

Meeting has been adjourned.

This sucked.

[politicallefty]

What a mess. Washington does not have the best system. Either way, it looks like the Washington Supreme Court will have the final say.

[lfromnj]

What a mess. Washington does not have the best system. Either way, it looks like the Washington Supreme Court will have the final say.

I highly doubt a court is going to get involved in redistricting over 90 seconds.

[politicallefty]

What a mess. Washington does not have the best system. Either way, it looks like the Washington Supreme Court will have the final say.

I highly doubt a court is going to get involved in redistricting over 90 seconds.

I believe in textualism. If it's a soft Republican gerrymander, I would still expect a court challenge even if the deadline had been met.

Anyway, it was apparently unanimous and the maps won't be known for at least a few hours:

https://twitter.com/LillianBelle2/status/1460521710306750471

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Map is out seems to be a soft GOP Gerrymander, but the washigton supreme court is famously liberal so let's see if it goes through.

[S019]

Map is out seems to be a soft GOP Gerrymander, but the washigton supreme court is famously liberal so let's see if it goes through.

Link to source?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

someone posted it on a discord.

[S019]

someone posted it on a discord.

I can’t see it, can you post a screenshot?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

someone posted it on a discord.

I can’t see it, can you post a screenshot?

Sorry it was a draft plan not the real one. misunderstood the post.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A reliably blue 8th seat, yes, but actually population trends now allow for the Oregon border seat to be the Cascade-crosser without having to split the city of Yakima, which didn't used to be the case and would definitely be an arguable alternative to crossing the Cascades at Ellensburg. And crossing the Cascades along the Columbia is hugely advantageous for the Democrats as southern Yakima County is strongly Democratic (mostly Hispanic and Native). The Democrats on the Commission definitely should have been proposing the map below, which creates another Biden seat while leaving all of the Democratic incumbents safe (the parts north of Olympia don't really matter for this purpose; they could do them however they wanted re: incumbent protection but I went for logical COIs, minimal splitting of municipalities and road connections (e.g., Skykomish)).

The border seat is Biden+1; the remaining Democratic seats are Biden+10 (Olympia/Olympic peninsula), Biden+15 (Bellingham/Everett), Biden+20 (Tacoma) or more.

Seeing WA-03 go into Yakima County explains why Republicans would definitely not be fans of such an idea (the current version is Trump+4 in 2020 and Trump+7 in 2016). I definitely agree that Democrats should be proposing such a plan. If anything's holding them back, it's that the Olympic Peninsula district would have to move into heavily Republican Lewis County. It's currently a Biden+18/Clinton+12 district. If you put all of Pacific County and Wahkiakum County into the Olympic Peninsula district (an idea I like because it creates an entirely coastal district), you can put the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County back into WA-03. If you also shift some precincts in Yakima County, the respective districts become Biden+11.4 and Trump+0.4.

You can also try something else by keeping all of Lewis County in WA-03 and moving WA-06 (your WA-04) into Cowlitz County and taking in the city of Longview. I'm strongly of the mind that only WA-03 should be crossing the West/East line. I used your map as a template and only edited the districts mentioned. The districts mentioned become Biden+13.2 and Trump+2.4:

The fact that Democrats didn't even propose a map like this (which is both more compact and more Democratic than the one they went with) is criminal malpractice.

Ever since Washington became a state in 1889, we have seen nothing but 130 years of straight white men dominating the redistricting process, even as recently as 2010.

And finally, in 2020, the Washington State Democratic Party made the brave and bold choice to appoint April Sims, a black woman, and Brady Walkinshaw, a gay man of color, to the redistricting commission. April Sims in particular came up with the most reasonable redistricting maps I have ever seen in my lifetime. She was not interested in shameless partisan redistricting. She drew districts that represented communities of interest and reflected the natural population growth in our state. She put the best interests of Washingtonians of all colors first and foremost.

But rather than recognizing her maps, and the maps of Brady Walkinshaw, as the watershed moment they are... All Antonio can do is call this criminal malpractice. Apparently, black women and gay men of color are incapable of creating shameless gerrymanders to the liking of a White Italian-Frenchman.

Shame on you, Antonio. Your racism, misogyny, and homophobia do NOT reflect the values of regular Washingtonians. You should be embarrassed! And I am proud of my state for rebuking the disgusting "values" of people like you.

Folks, I will not lie to you. Part of me was worried that these two were "affirmative action" picks. But I was wrong. April Sims came up with some of the best redistricting maps I have ever seen this state produce. Do not listen to bigots like Antonio. Listen to brave women like April Sims. People like her represent the future of our state, and make me proud to be a Washingtonian.

well this sure aged well

What a wonderful job these flawless, beautiful Democratic commissioners did.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/Jim_Brunner/status/1460625355924930565

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good lord, that 8th.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Who ever thought crossing the Cascade Range that far North was a good idea?? Admittedly that's a product of the last decade's redistricting, but still, WHY??

[lfromnj]

Also why does the 4th and 5th need to be split like that when North and South makes so much more sense ?

[Nyvin]

Looks like 6-3-1,  bordering on 6-4

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who ever thought crossing the Cascade Range that far North was a good idea?? Admittedly that's a product of the last decade's redistricting, but still, WHY??

Tbf, it's an improvement overall because now only 1 district crosses the Cascades, not 2.

[lfromnj]

It really is a meme tier commission when even IL Dems and Texas Rs let the public see the map before its passed.