2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Washington

[Antonio the Sixth]

A reliably blue 8th seat, yes, but actually population trends now allow for the Oregon border seat to be the Cascade-crosser without having to split the city of Yakima, which didn't used to be the case and would definitely be an arguable alternative to crossing the Cascades at Ellensburg. And crossing the Cascades along the Columbia is hugely advantageous for the Democrats as southern Yakima County is strongly Democratic (mostly Hispanic and Native). The Democrats on the Commission definitely should have been proposing the map below, which creates another Biden seat while leaving all of the Democratic incumbents safe (the parts north of Olympia don't really matter for this purpose; they could do them however they wanted re: incumbent protection but I went for logical COIs, minimal splitting of municipalities and road connections (e.g., Skykomish)).

The border seat is Biden+1; the remaining Democratic seats are Biden+10 (Olympia/Olympic peninsula), Biden+15 (Bellingham/Everett), Biden+20 (Tacoma) or more.

Seeing WA-03 go into Yakima County explains why Republicans would definitely not be fans of such an idea (the current version is Trump+4 in 2020 and Trump+7 in 2016). I definitely agree that Democrats should be proposing such a plan. If anything's holding them back, it's that the Olympic Peninsula district would have to move into heavily Republican Lewis County. It's currently a Biden+18/Clinton+12 district. If you put all of Pacific County and Wahkiakum County into the Olympic Peninsula district (an idea I like because it creates an entirely coastal district), you can put the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County back into WA-03. If you also shift some precincts in Yakima County, the respective districts become Biden+11.4 and Trump+0.4.

You can also try something else by keeping all of Lewis County in WA-03 and moving WA-06 (your WA-04) into Cowlitz County and taking in the city of Longview. I'm strongly of the mind that only WA-03 should be crossing the West/East line. I used your map as a template and only edited the districts mentioned. The districts mentioned become Biden+13.2 and Trump+2.4:

The fact that Democrats didn't even propose a map like this (which is both more compact and more Democratic than the one they went with) is criminal malpractice.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats’ main goal should be moving WA-08 into safer territory, even if it means putting WA-03 completely out of reach.  That should be the bare minimum that Dems on the commission should accept.  Otherwise, deadlock the commission and punt it to the all Dem Supreme Court.

[Tintrlvr]

A reliably blue 8th seat, yes, but actually population trends now allow for the Oregon border seat to be the Cascade-crosser without having to split the city of Yakima, which didn't used to be the case and would definitely be an arguable alternative to crossing the Cascades at Ellensburg. And crossing the Cascades along the Columbia is hugely advantageous for the Democrats as southern Yakima County is strongly Democratic (mostly Hispanic and Native). The Democrats on the Commission definitely should have been proposing the map below, which creates another Biden seat while leaving all of the Democratic incumbents safe (the parts north of Olympia don't really matter for this purpose; they could do them however they wanted re: incumbent protection but I went for logical COIs, minimal splitting of municipalities and road connections (e.g., Skykomish)).

The border seat is Biden+1; the remaining Democratic seats are Biden+10 (Olympia/Olympic peninsula), Biden+15 (Bellingham/Everett), Biden+20 (Tacoma) or more.

Seeing WA-03 go into Yakima County explains why Republicans would definitely not be fans of such an idea (the current version is Trump+4 in 2020 and Trump+7 in 2016). I definitely agree that Democrats should be proposing such a plan. If anything's holding them back, it's that the Olympic Peninsula district would have to move into heavily Republican Lewis County. It's currently a Biden+18/Clinton+12 district. If you put all of Pacific County and Wahkiakum County into the Olympic Peninsula district (an idea I like because it creates an entirely coastal district), you can put the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County back into WA-03. If you also shift some precincts in Yakima County, the respective districts become Biden+11.4 and Trump+0.4.

You can also try something else by keeping all of Lewis County in WA-03 and moving WA-06 (your WA-04) into Cowlitz County and taking in the city of Longview. I'm strongly of the mind that only WA-03 should be crossing the West/East line. I used your map as a template and only edited the districts mentioned. The districts mentioned become Biden+13.2 and Trump+2.4:

Agree with you on both points. I was not maximally efficient for the Democrats in Yakima County because I was trying to avoid splitting Yakima city, but if you were willing to do so, you could improve my map to around Biden+3 on the southern district, or where you got it on your map with Lewis County included. Perhaps this is more likely for the Democrats although I think Biden+10 is enough for the Olympia district to be comfortable; after all, it's not like places like Olympia, Port Townsend or Bainbridge Island are trending Republican, so there is a significant degree of safety in a Biden+10 seat.

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

Washington seems like the type of state where city population growth would give Dems an opportunity for a pickup, but I guess not...  or Dems are just inept.

Where would it occur though? Two seats have to be east of the cascades, that's just demos. Dems can try to make one such seat a bit more competitive, which we see on plan 3. The third GOP seat is along the Oregon border, and everything including or south of Lewis county is basically enough for a third seat...but a GOP leaning one. You would have to carve up the Oregon border to get a reliably blue 8th seat.

Conversely though, you have to work to get the dems under 7, as we can see from the GOP maps. And it's very likely that if you follow community lines those 7 end up safe.

A reliably blue 8th seat, yes, but actually population trends now allow for the Oregon border seat to be the Cascade-crosser without having to split the city of Yakima, which didn't used to be the case and would definitely be an arguable alternative to crossing the Cascades at Ellensburg. And crossing the Cascades along the Columbia is hugely advantageous for the Democrats as southern Yakima County is strongly Democratic (mostly Hispanic and Native). The Democrats on the Commission definitely should have been proposing the map below, which creates another Biden seat while leaving all of the Democratic incumbents safe (the parts north of Olympia don't really matter for this purpose; they could do them however they wanted re: incumbent protection but I went for logical COIs, minimal splitting of municipalities and road connections (e.g., Skykomish)).

The border seat is Biden+1; the remaining Democratic seats are Biden+10 (Olympia/Olympic peninsula), Biden+15 (Bellingham/Everett), Biden+20 (Tacoma) or more.

My split between the two eastern districts was intended to maximize the Hispanic population in the Tri-Cities/Yakima district, by the way, not that it really matters.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/bcdd0517-4570-467b-b3bb-a8ed3f174204

Edit: Improved the Tacoma-area map for the Democrats a bit.

I agree that this should have been the Democratic line. If the 3rd district is the one that crosses the Cascades, it is difficult to avoid making the 3rd and 8th both bluer. However, it's possible the the Ds on the commission thought voting out JHB was a lost cause. She definitely has a moderate reputation which the aftermath of 1/6 has bolstered. I'm pretty confident she would easily keep her seat on the map you've drawn.

[Tintrlvr]

Washington seems like the type of state where city population growth would give Dems an opportunity for a pickup, but I guess not...  or Dems are just inept.

Where would it occur though? Two seats have to be east of the cascades, that's just demos. Dems can try to make one such seat a bit more competitive, which we see on plan 3. The third GOP seat is along the Oregon border, and everything including or south of Lewis county is basically enough for a third seat...but a GOP leaning one. You would have to carve up the Oregon border to get a reliably blue 8th seat.

Conversely though, you have to work to get the dems under 7, as we can see from the GOP maps. And it's very likely that if you follow community lines those 7 end up safe.

A reliably blue 8th seat, yes, but actually population trends now allow for the Oregon border seat to be the Cascade-crosser without having to split the city of Yakima, which didn't used to be the case and would definitely be an arguable alternative to crossing the Cascades at Ellensburg. And crossing the Cascades along the Columbia is hugely advantageous for the Democrats as southern Yakima County is strongly Democratic (mostly Hispanic and Native). The Democrats on the Commission definitely should have been proposing the map below, which creates another Biden seat while leaving all of the Democratic incumbents safe (the parts north of Olympia don't really matter for this purpose; they could do them however they wanted re: incumbent protection but I went for logical COIs, minimal splitting of municipalities and road connections (e.g., Skykomish)).

The border seat is Biden+1; the remaining Democratic seats are Biden+10 (Olympia/Olympic peninsula), Biden+15 (Bellingham/Everett), Biden+20 (Tacoma) or more.

My split between the two eastern districts was intended to maximize the Hispanic population in the Tri-Cities/Yakima district, by the way, not that it really matters.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/bcdd0517-4570-467b-b3bb-a8ed3f174204

Edit: Improved the Tacoma-area map for the Democrats a bit.

I agree that this should have been the Democratic line. If the 3rd district is the one that crosses the Cascades, it is difficult to avoid making the 3rd and 8th both bluer. However, it's possible the the Ds on the commission thought voting out JHB was a lost cause. She definitely has a moderate reputation which the aftermath of 1/6 has bolstered. I'm pretty confident she would easily keep her seat on the map you've drawn.

Fair, but 10 years is a long time, and Vancouver is only becoming bigger and more Democratic. The main issue is that the commission will probably come to a compromise, so the Democrats should be proposing something more than what they want rather than just what they want.

[lfromnj]

Yeah Democrats probably should have pushed for Yakima to be the split just as starting points in negotiations basically by stating to give Hispanics more influence. Main issue though is the 2 current counties are basically perfectly whole with only a few hundred people required to be split. Along with that I think Kittatis county has been rapidly growing as a somewhat super exurban of Seattle with something like 15% of its population now being these trans Cascade commuters. This would atleast make them the area with the most connection to the west if one is forced to do a Cascade split.

[Tintrlvr]

Yeah Democrats probably should have pushed for Yakima to be the split just as starting points in negotiations basically by stating to give Hispanics more influence. Main issue though is the 2 current counties are basically perfectly whole with only a few hundred people required to be split. Along with that I think Kittatis county has been rapidly growing as a somewhat super exurban of Seattle with something like 15% of its population now being these trans Cascade commuters. This would atleast make them the area with the most connection to the west if one is forced to do a Cascade split.

This debate happened in the 2010 redistricting. No one commutes from Kittitas County into King County. Someone set up a camera to monitor the Snoqualmie pass through rush hour and it was like 3 cars and 15 trucks over two hours.

It’s obvious right away if you look at a satellite image of, say, Easton or Cle Elum that they aren’t exurbs. There’s no suburban-style development of winding roads and new houses there at all, just a neat midcentury grid of old houses.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah Democrats probably should have pushed for Yakima to be the split just as starting points in negotiations basically by stating to give Hispanics more influence. Main issue though is the 2 current counties are basically perfectly whole with only a few hundred people required to be split. Along with that I think Kittatis county has been rapidly growing as a somewhat super exurban of Seattle with something like 15% of its population now being these trans Cascade commuters. This would atleast make them the area with the most connection to the west if one is forced to do a Cascade split.

This debate happened in the 2010 redistricting. No one commutes from Kittitas County into King County. Someone set up a camera to monitor the Snoqualmie pass through rush hour and it was like 3 cars and 15 trucks over two hours.

It’s obvious right away if you look at a satellite image of, say, Easton or Cle Elum that they aren’t exurbs. There’s no suburban-style development of winding roads and new houses there at all, just a neat midcentury grid of old houses.

The better argument in my eyes is that crossing the cascades at all is always going to be bad, so you have to make the least-bad option. In the past year I have come around to maps that preserve the northern crossing but do it via the Snohomish-King-Chelen and drop Kittitas. The reason for this is media markets: Chelten and Douglas are in the Seattle-Takoma market and Kittitas is not. It's a poor COI, but any linkage across the cascades, north or south, will be bad so there needs to be something to justify your choice.

The other advantage of crossing at the north is that you can reconfigure the eastern seats into a north-south arrangement rather than a east-west. This allows one to keep all the urban ag counties together separate from Spokane. Obviously this overall concept for the map is better in terms of regional identities rather than partisan advantages for any party.

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

Yeah Democrats probably should have pushed for Yakima to be the split just as starting points in negotiations basically by stating to give Hispanics more influence. Main issue though is the 2 current counties are basically perfectly whole with only a few hundred people required to be split. Along with that I think Kittatis county has been rapidly growing as a somewhat super exurban of Seattle with something like 15% of its population now being these trans Cascade commuters. This would atleast make them the area with the most connection to the west if one is forced to do a Cascade split.

This debate happened in the 2010 redistricting. No one commutes from Kittitas County into King County. Someone set up a camera to monitor the Snoqualmie pass through rush hour and it was like 3 cars and 15 trucks over two hours.

It’s obvious right away if you look at a satellite image of, say, Easton or Cle Elum that they aren’t exurbs. There’s no suburban-style development of winding roads and new houses there at all, just a neat midcentury grid of old houses.

The better argument in my eyes is that crossing the cascades at all is always going to be bad, so you have to make the least-bad option. In the past year I have come around to maps that preserve the northern crossing but do it via the Snohomish-King-Chelen and drop Kittitas. The reason for this is media markets: Chelten and Douglas are in the Seattle-Takoma market and Kittitas is not. It's a poor COI, but any linkage across the cascades, north or south, will be bad so there needs to be something to justify your choice.

The other advantage of crossing at the north is that you can reconfigure the eastern seats into a north-south arrangement rather than a east-west. This allows one to keep all the urban ag counties together separate from Spokane. Obviously this overall concept for the map is better in terms of regional identities rather than partisan advantages for any party.

I'm having trouble envisioning what this map would look like. It seems like it would be awkward to get enough population east of the Cascades without at least putting Klickitat into the 3rd.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah Democrats probably should have pushed for Yakima to be the split just as starting points in negotiations basically by stating to give Hispanics more influence. Main issue though is the 2 current counties are basically perfectly whole with only a few hundred people required to be split. Along with that I think Kittatis county has been rapidly growing as a somewhat super exurban of Seattle with something like 15% of its population now being these trans Cascade commuters. This would atleast make them the area with the most connection to the west if one is forced to do a Cascade split.

This debate happened in the 2010 redistricting. No one commutes from Kittitas County into King County. Someone set up a camera to monitor the Snoqualmie pass through rush hour and it was like 3 cars and 15 trucks over two hours.

It’s obvious right away if you look at a satellite image of, say, Easton or Cle Elum that they aren’t exurbs. There’s no suburban-style development of winding roads and new houses there at all, just a neat midcentury grid of old houses.

The better argument in my eyes is that crossing the cascades at all is always going to be bad, so you have to make the least-bad option. In the past year I have come around to maps that preserve the northern crossing but do it via the Snohomish-King-Chelen and drop Kittitas. The reason for this is media markets: Chelten and Douglas are in the Seattle-Takoma market and Kittitas is not. It's a poor COI, but any linkage across the cascades, north or south, will be bad so there needs to be something to justify your choice.

The other advantage of crossing at the north is that you can reconfigure the eastern seats into a north-south arrangement rather than a east-west. This allows one to keep all the urban ag counties together separate from Spokane. Obviously this overall concept for the map is better in terms of regional identities rather than partisan advantages for any party.

I'm having trouble envisioning what this map would look like. It seems like it would be awkward to get enough population east of the Cascades without at least putting Klickitat into the 3rd.

Like this?

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

Yeah Democrats probably should have pushed for Yakima to be the split just as starting points in negotiations basically by stating to give Hispanics more influence. Main issue though is the 2 current counties are basically perfectly whole with only a few hundred people required to be split. Along with that I think Kittatis county has been rapidly growing as a somewhat super exurban of Seattle with something like 15% of its population now being these trans Cascade commuters. This would atleast make them the area with the most connection to the west if one is forced to do a Cascade split.

This debate happened in the 2010 redistricting. No one commutes from Kittitas County into King County. Someone set up a camera to monitor the Snoqualmie pass through rush hour and it was like 3 cars and 15 trucks over two hours.

It’s obvious right away if you look at a satellite image of, say, Easton or Cle Elum that they aren’t exurbs. There’s no suburban-style development of winding roads and new houses there at all, just a neat midcentury grid of old houses.

The better argument in my eyes is that crossing the cascades at all is always going to be bad, so you have to make the least-bad option. In the past year I have come around to maps that preserve the northern crossing but do it via the Snohomish-King-Chelen and drop Kittitas. The reason for this is media markets: Chelten and Douglas are in the Seattle-Takoma market and Kittitas is not. It's a poor COI, but any linkage across the cascades, north or south, will be bad so there needs to be something to justify your choice.

The other advantage of crossing at the north is that you can reconfigure the eastern seats into a north-south arrangement rather than a east-west. This allows one to keep all the urban ag counties together separate from Spokane. Obviously this overall concept for the map is better in terms of regional identities rather than partisan advantages for any party.

I'm having trouble envisioning what this map would look like. It seems like it would be awkward to get enough population east of the Cascades without at least putting Klickitat into the 3rd.

Like this?

I interpreted Oryxslayer's message as saying that Kittitas would go with Eastern Washington, which makes it much more challenging to draw a map. Obviously, if Kittitas goes with Western Washington in the 8th, it is easy to do exactly what you just showed.

[politicallefty]

Seeing WA-03 go into Yakima County explains why Republicans would definitely not be fans of such an idea (the current version is Trump+4 in 2020 and Trump+7 in 2016). I definitely agree that Democrats should be proposing such a plan. If anything's holding them back, it's that the Olympic Peninsula district would have to move into heavily Republican Lewis County. It's currently a Biden+18/Clinton+12 district. If you put all of Pacific County and Wahkiakum County into the Olympic Peninsula district (an idea I like because it creates an entirely coastal district), you can put the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County back into WA-03. If you also shift some precincts in Yakima County, the respective districts become Biden+11.4 and Trump+0.4.

You can also try something else by keeping all of Lewis County in WA-03 and moving WA-06 (your WA-04) into Cowlitz County and taking in the city of Longview. I'm strongly of the mind that only WA-03 should be crossing the West/East line. I used your map as a template and only edited the districts mentioned. The districts mentioned become Biden+13.2 and Trump+2.4:

Agree with you on both points. I was not maximally efficient for the Democrats in Yakima County because I was trying to avoid splitting Yakima city, but if you were willing to do so, you could improve my map to around Biden+3 on the southern district, or where you got it on your map with Lewis County included. Perhaps this is more likely for the Democrats although I think Biden+10 is enough for the Olympia district to be comfortable; after all, it's not like places like Olympia, Port Townsend or Bainbridge Island are trending Republican, so there is a significant degree of safety in a Biden+10 seat.

I didn't split the City of Yakima and that's something I'd avoid doing. That's actually something that's changed this decade as opposed to 10 years ago. Drawing WA-03 into Yakima County back then would've forced a split of the city itself. My alteration of your map was only to consider how Washington draws its Congressional map. It leaves WA-03 as a Trump district, but pulls it a bit to the left. It also keeps the Olympic Peninsula district more secure. (I also quite like the idea of taking that district all the way down to the OR border as a coastal district. The map I showed did that, but went one step further and added Longview. If you don't do that and add western Lewis County, you get the first scenario I mentioned.) I think the most important thing we agree on is that WA-08 should no longer cross the Cascades. It really does make the most sense that WA-03 be the sole district that transverses the West/East divide. I was only showing an alternative that might be more amenable to a commission.

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

Since this thread needs a bit more chaotic energy: here's an 8-2 gerrymander with a lot of county splits.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/b695aa36-c39f-4e37-8990-633faa7707c6

District 1 is Biden +6 and district 3 is Biden +5.2.

[bgwah]

A reliably blue 8th seat, yes, but actually population trends now allow for the Oregon border seat to be the Cascade-crosser without having to split the city of Yakima, which didn't used to be the case and would definitely be an arguable alternative to crossing the Cascades at Ellensburg. And crossing the Cascades along the Columbia is hugely advantageous for the Democrats as southern Yakima County is strongly Democratic (mostly Hispanic and Native). The Democrats on the Commission definitely should have been proposing the map below, which creates another Biden seat while leaving all of the Democratic incumbents safe (the parts north of Olympia don't really matter for this purpose; they could do them however they wanted re: incumbent protection but I went for logical COIs, minimal splitting of municipalities and road connections (e.g., Skykomish)).

The border seat is Biden+1; the remaining Democratic seats are Biden+10 (Olympia/Olympic peninsula), Biden+15 (Bellingham/Everett), Biden+20 (Tacoma) or more.

Seeing WA-03 go into Yakima County explains why Republicans would definitely not be fans of such an idea (the current version is Trump+4 in 2020 and Trump+7 in 2016). I definitely agree that Democrats should be proposing such a plan. If anything's holding them back, it's that the Olympic Peninsula district would have to move into heavily Republican Lewis County. It's currently a Biden+18/Clinton+12 district. If you put all of Pacific County and Wahkiakum County into the Olympic Peninsula district (an idea I like because it creates an entirely coastal district), you can put the eastern 2/3 of Lewis County back into WA-03. If you also shift some precincts in Yakima County, the respective districts become Biden+11.4 and Trump+0.4.

You can also try something else by keeping all of Lewis County in WA-03 and moving WA-06 (your WA-04) into Cowlitz County and taking in the city of Longview. I'm strongly of the mind that only WA-03 should be crossing the West/East line. I used your map as a template and only edited the districts mentioned. The districts mentioned become Biden+13.2 and Trump+2.4:

The fact that Democrats didn't even propose a map like this (which is both more compact and more Democratic than the one they went with) is criminal malpractice.

Ever since Washington became a state in 1889, we have seen nothing but 130 years of straight white men dominating the redistricting process, even as recently as 2010.

And finally, in 2020, the Washington State Democratic Party made the brave and bold choice to appoint April Sims, a black woman, and Brady Walkinshaw, a gay man of color, to the redistricting commission. April Sims in particular came up with the most reasonable redistricting maps I have ever seen in my lifetime. She was not interested in shameless partisan redistricting. She drew districts that represented communities of interest and reflected the natural population growth in our state. She put the best interests of Washingtonians of all colors first and foremost.

But rather than recognizing her maps, and the maps of Brady Walkinshaw, as the watershed moment they are... All Antonio can do is call this criminal malpractice. Apparently, black women and gay men of color are incapable of creating shameless gerrymanders to the liking of a White Italian-Frenchman.

Shame on you, Antonio. Your racism, misogyny, and homophobia do NOT reflect the values of regular Washingtonians. You should be embarrassed! And I am proud of my state for rebuking the disgusting "values" of people like you.

Folks, I will not lie to you. Part of me was worried that these two were "affirmative action" picks. But I was wrong. April Sims came up with some of the best redistricting maps I have ever seen this state produce. Do not listen to bigots like Antonio. Listen to brave women like April Sims. People like her represent the future of our state, and make me proud to be a Washingtonian.

[Antonio the Sixth]

hahahahahaha ok dude

[Frodo]

Welcome back bgwah! 

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

Lately, a report was released suggesting that there would need to be a district that is majority-Latino by CVAP in order for the map to comply with the VRA (see this article https://patch.com/washington/seattle/proposed-wa-redistricting-maps-may-violate-voting-rights-act)

I tried editing my legislative map to satisfy that requirement, and came up with this:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/994f4a7d-6000-438a-873c-4d8e76faae93

[EastAnglianLefty]

Lately, a report was released suggesting that there would need to be a district that is majority-Latino by CVAP in order for the map to comply with the VRA (see this article https://patch.com/washington/seattle/proposed-wa-redistricting-maps-may-violate-voting-rights-act)

I tried editing my legislative map to satisfy that requirement, and came up with this:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/994f4a7d-6000-438a-873c-4d8e76faae93

Here's what I came up with: https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ba58930-5215-4466-9f0d-f71de289d475

The Yakima district isn't quite Hispanic majority by 2019 CVAP, but it's a secure enough plurality to control the Democratic primary. Where are the CVAP numbers from, anyway? They seem to suggest that less than a third of voting age Asians in Redmond are citizens and less than half in Sammamish, which seems suspiciously high, so I'm wondering if they tend to overestimate the white share of the electorate.

[Oryxslayer]

Lately, a report was released suggesting that there would need to be a district that is majority-Latino by CVAP in order for the map to comply with the VRA (see this article https://patch.com/washington/seattle/proposed-wa-redistricting-maps-may-violate-voting-rights-act)

I tried editing my legislative map to satisfy that requirement, and came up with this:

Here's what I came up with: https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ba58930-5215-4466-9f0d-f71de289d475

The Yakima district isn't quite Hispanic majority by 2019 CVAP, but it's a secure enough plurality to control the Democratic primary. Where are the CVAP numbers from, anyway? They seem to suggest that less than a third of voting age Asians in Redmond are citizens and less than half in Sammamish, which seems suspiciously high, so I'm wondering if they tend to overestimate the white share of the electorate.

CVAP is based on 2019 ACS projections, which themselves are backwards looking and build on a foundation of the previous census. It is therefore an inaccurate indicator, given that we know the census at the margins differed from said projections - notably when it came to said Asian groups. It also falls apart in areas of extreme growth - for example there are a handful of precincts in GA that tripled/quadrupled in size from 2010 and have differing 2020 census/2019 CVAP numbers. However, it is the final DRA indicator and can be used to prove that even under a exclusionary measure you can draw 50%+ minority coalition/minority access seats in areas lacking in said access - like the Texas GOP map.

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1460411334626103302

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bruh I feel like there was dead silence from the Washington commission other than those 4 proposed draft maps and now it's already time to decide.

[BoiseBoy]

The commission immediately went to discuss things outside of the public view in their partisan groups so there has been zero action since the meeting began nearly 2 hours ago. They have only a few hours to come up with something before the deadline passes.

[politicallefty]

It sounds like they didn't have this meeting tonight with a consensus proposal in mind or in hand.

[BoiseBoy]

They came back briefly only to have both sides say they are still working on updated proposals. The meeting is on another half hour break.

[BoiseBoy]

There's a chance that one of the GOP maps could be picked as a DEM commissioner may defect.

https://twitter.com/Jim_Brunner/status/1460478601397039107?s=20