Four more years? - A political election timeline

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In the news: 2022

Lisa Murkowski to endorse Al Gross in Alaska senate race

Lauren Southern to found own Canadian right-wing Political Party

Trump congratulates Le Pen on French victory, says: "France and USA have great future ahead of them together

French Left in disarray after disastreous election result

Bolsonaro re-elected in Brazil

2024 GOP polling
Mike Pence 24,5%
Nikki Haley 22,8%
Donald Trump Jr. 10,1%
Ivanka Trump 9,6%
Mike Pompeo 9,2%
Josh Hawley 6,5%
Ted Cruz 5,0%
Mitt Romney 4,5%
Meghan McCain 4,0%
Paul Ryan 3,6%
Greg Abbott 2,5%
Ron DeSantis 1,8%
Tim Scott 1,4%
Marco Rubio 1,1%
Rick Scott 0,8%
Larry Hogan 0,8%
Lara Trump 0,6%

2024 DEM polling
Elizabeth Warren 24,6%
Kamala Harris 19,1%
Andrew Yang 12,8%
Pete Buttigieg 11,9%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9,9%
Joe Kennedy III 8,5%
Andrew Cuomo 7,6%
Gavin Newsom 4,1%
Cory Booker 3,3%
Howard Schultz 1,4%
Caroline Kennedy 1,2%
Gretchen Whitmer 0,8%

Further polls:
Approval rating Trump 45 - 51
GE Warren vs Pence: 50 - 41
GE Harris vs Pence: 48 - 43
GE Yang vs Pence: 43 - 37
GE AOC vs Pence 39 - 40
GE Warren vs Haley 48 - 42
GE Harris vs Haley 44 - 44
GE Yang vs Haley 40 - 34
AL Jones vs Byrne 40 - 48
AZ Ducey vs Kelly 42 - 49
AK Ingraham vs Gross 40 - 32
FL Rubio vs Messam 45 - 40
GA Collins vs Tomlison 47 - 44
IA Scholten vs Pat Grassley 33 - 41
OH Portman vs Ryan 47 - 42
PA Toorney - Sestak 42 - 46
WI Pocan - Johnson 42 - 45

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2022 midterms

Alabama

Doug Jones 42,8%
Bradley Byrne 56,1%

Alaska:

Laura Ingraham 50,1%
Al Gross 46,8%

Arizona:

Doug Ducey 47,7%
Mark Kelly 52,2%

California:

Kamala Harris 68,2%
Erin Cruz 15,6%

Colorado:

Michael Bennet 61,1%
Patrick Neville 37,4%

Connecticut:

Richard Blumenthal 62,1%
Candace Owens 35,4%

Florida:

Marco Rubio 57,1%
Wayne Messam 42,7%

Georgia:

Doug Collins 50,4%
Teresa Tomlison 49,5%

Illinois:

Tammy Duckworth 66,2%
Peggy Hubbard 32,8%

Indiana:

Todd Young 65,4%
Christina Hale 33,8%

Iowa:

J.D. Scholten 42,1%
Pat Grassley 56,7%

Kansas:

Mike Pompeo 58,4%
Barry Grissom 41,0%

Louisiana:

John Neely Kennedy 60,1%
Robert Johnson 38,2%

Missouri:

Roy Blunt 55,1%
Claire McCaskill 44,0%

Nevada:

Catherine Cortez Masto 60,2%
Sharron Angle 38,8%

New Hampshire (GOP gain) :

Maggie Hassan 48,8%
Chris Sununu 51,1%

New York:

Chuck Schumer  59,2%
Larry Kudlow 20,1%

North Carolina:

Roy Cooper 51,1%
Pat McCrory 48,7%

Ohio:

Rob Portman 61,2%
Tim Ryan 38,0%

Oregon:

Ron Wyden 57,2%
Jo Rae Perkins 40,1%

Pennsylvania (DEM gain) :

Pat Toomey 49,7%
Joe Sestak 50,1%

South Carolina:

Tim Scott 55,1%
Jaime Harrison 44,7%

Utah:

Mike Lee 67,7%
Jim Matheson 31,2%

Vermont:

Donald H. Turner 28,9%
Peter Welch 70,4%

Washington:

Pramila Jayapal 58,4%
Chris Vance 41,0%

Wisconsin (DEM gain):

Mark Pocan 51,0%
Ron Johnson 48,0%

Democrats + independents: 50 (+1)
Republicans: 50 (-1)

GOP majority

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House

Democrats + independents: 228 (+8)
Republicans: 204 (-8)
Libertarians: 1 (=)

DEM majority

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Governors

NJ: Phil Murphy
VA: Justin Fairfax

Alabama: Kay Ivey   
Alaska: Mike Dunleavy
Arizona: Greg Stanton   
Arkansas: Tim Griffin
California: Gavin Newsom
Colorado: Jared Polis
Connecticut: Ned Lamont
Florida: Ron DeSantis   
Georgia: Stacey Abrams
Hawaii: Josh Green
Idaho: Brad Little   
Illinois: J. B. Pritzker   
Iowa: Kim Reynolds
Kansas: Roger Marshall   
Maine: Paul LePage
Maryland: Peter Franchot
Massachusetts: Charlie Baker   
Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer
Minnesota: Tim Walz   
Nebraska: Jim Scheer
Nevada: Steve Sisolak
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte
New Mexico: Michelle Lujan Grisham   
New York:   Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: Mike DeWine   
Oklahoma: Kevin Stitt   
Oregon: Tina Kotek   
Pennsylvania: John Fetterman   
Rhode Island: Nellie Gorbea
South Carolina: Henry McMaster
South Dakota: Kristi Noem   
Tennessee: Bill Lee
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Phil Scott   
Wisconsin:   Tony Evers   
Wyoming: Mark Gordon

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First announcements: Nov 2022 / Dec 2022 / Jan 2023

On both sides, it's raining announcements. On the GOP side, political commentator Candace Owens has announced she would run for president. Former Governor Larry Hogan who represents the more moderate side, was quick to follow. Senator Tim Scott announced his candidacy as well. Elise Stefanik started her campaign too. And Marsha Blackburn stepped in. Ted Cruz announced an exploratory committee. Liz Cheney said she's in. Libertarian Justin Amash said he will run for both the Republican and Libertarian nomination, proposing a joint ticket. He said America needs to modernize, and the GOP needs to appeal to more groups. Kellyanne Conway, Carly Fiorina and Steve Bannon announced their candidacies as well. Rubio, Kasich, Romney and Ryan declined interest in running. Never were women so overrepresented in the GOP!

Football star Megan Rapinoe announced she will run for president on behalf of the Democratic Party.. Governors Gretchen Whitmer and Jared Polis announced their candidacies as well. Newly elected senator Mark Pocan, congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, senator Steve Bullock, Richard Ojeda and NY state senator Julia Salazar announced too. Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker and Julian Castro announced exploratory committees.

2024 GOP Polling:
Mike Pence 17,2%
Nikki Haley 15,0%
Ted Cruz 7,0%
Josh Hawley 5,5%
Steve Bannon 5,2%
Donald Trump Jr. 5,0%
Ivanka Trump 4,6%
Justin Amash 4,2%
Mike Pompeo 4,0%
Marsha Blackburn 3,3%
Meghan McCain 2,8%
Candace Owens 2,6%
Greg Abbott 2,4%
Larry Hogan 2,2%
Ron DeSantis 1,7%
Kellyanne Conway 1,2%
Tim Scott 1,0%
Liz Cheney 0,9%
Elise Stefanik 0,8%
Rick Scott 0,8%
Lara Trump 0,4%
Carly Fiorina 0,3%

2024 DEM polling
Elizabeth Warren 31,6%
Kamala Harris 17,5%
Andrew Yang 14,8%
Joe Kennedy III 10,1%
Pete Buttigieg 8,5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8,2%
Andrew Cuomo 6,6%
Gavin Newsom 5,1%
Megan Rapinoe 4,2%
Cory Booker 3,0%
Tulsi Gabbard 2,5%
Gretchen Whitmer 2,2%
Julian Castro 1,8%
Caroline Kennedy 1,5%
Mark Pocan 1,2%
Jared Polis 1,2%
Howard Schultz 1,0%
Richard Ojeda 0,3%
Julia Salazar 0,3%

GE polling
Warren vs Cruz 53 - 40
Warren vs Haley 46 - 44
Warren vs Pence 51 - 45

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Second bunch of announcements: Feb 2023 / Mar 2023 / Apr 2023

The race is getting clearer, as it's clear who's running. On the GOP side, Mike Pence and Nikki Haley both announced they would run for office. Hawley also announced, and campaigns on an economic populist but socially conservative platform. All Trump family members declined to run. Kansas senator Mike Pompeo is a third horse in the race as well, who has stated that he would contest the primaries. Florida governor Ron DeSantis also stepped into the race. Michigan senator John James also announced his campaign in the spring of 2020, so did Tom Cotton and John Thune. Congressional member Jeff Van Drew was the latest to join the already crowded GOP primary. Tucker Carlson and Ann Coulter declined to run. Greg Abbott did decline to run as well, so did Meghan McCain - daughter of John McCain. Ohio governor Mike DeWine declined to run as well.

On the Democratic side, vice-presidential nominee Kamala Harris started her campaign in february. Joe Kennedy III shortly followed by announcing his bid. Pete Buttigieg, New York mayor Andrew Yang, California governor Gavin Newsom and New York governor Andrew Cuomo all also joined the race. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez declined to run, while not endorsing anyone, so did Howard Schultz, Amy Klobuchar, Jay Inslee and Caroline Kennedy. Among lesser known candidates, former Alabama senator Doug Jones joined the race. Russ Feingold and Beto O'Rourke joined as well. That currently makes up the field.



2024 GOP Polling:
Nikki Haley 22,1%
Mike Pence 19,3%
Josh Hawley 9,8%
Marsha Blackburn 5,2%
Ted Cruz 4,7%
Steve Bannon 3,8%
Justin Amash 3,5%
Mike Pompeo 3,3%
Candace Owens 2,8%
John James 2,7%
Larry Hogan 2,5%
Ron DeSantis 2,2%
Tom Cotton 1,8%
John Thune 1,0%
Kellyanne Conway 0,8%
Tim Scott 0,6%
Liz Cheney 0,3%
Elise Stefanik 0,2%
Carly Fiorina 0,2%
Jeff Van Drew 0,1%

2024 DEM polling
Elizabeth Warren 25,2%
Kamala Harris 22,1%
Andrew Yang 18,3%
Joe Kennedy III 12,0%
Gavin Newsom 9,1%
Pete Buttigieg 7,4%
Andrew Cuomo 5,8%
Gretchen Whitmer 4,2%
Cory Booker 3,3%
Megan Rapinoe 2,2%
Tulsi Gabbard 2,0%
Julian Castro 1,5%
Beto O'Rourke 1,2%
Mark Pocan 1,0%
Jared Polis 1,0%
Russ Feingold 0,7%
Julia Salazar 0,5%
Doug Jones 0,3%
Richard Ojeda 0,2%

GE polling
Warren vs Haley 47 - 44
Warren vs Pence 51 - 43
Warren vs Hawley 44 - 38
Harris vs Haley 43 - 45
Harris vs Pence 48 - 46
Harris vs Hawley 39 - 41
Yang vs Haley 42 - 45
Yang vs Pence 44 - 40
Yang vs Hawley 37 - 37

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The Republican candidates

As most are fighting to claim for Trump's mantle, the front-runner Haley has stated that it was an honour to work as UN ambassador in the Trump cabinet, as it was an honour for her to work as governor of South Carolina, but stated that she would do things differently and act as a real conservative and work on tax relief / cuts. She also stated that she would handle foreign conflicts differently, and opt for military intervention quickier, with a tough on China approach.

Mike Pence runs on a continuation of Trump politics, while reiterating his socially conservative stances. He has promised to overturn Roe vs Wade and said abortion is child murder, while being pro-life is a virtue of God. Josh Hawley runs on a populist anti-immigration platform. He wants to decrease taxes for the middle class and lower class, increase jobs and wants to reform the GOP party, coming up with a decent alternative healthcare plan. He said he wanted to invest in infrastructure and recovering the economy to pre-COVID 19 levels, making sure the economy works for everyone. He has said Trump did some good work. Blackburn campaigns as a full Trump conservative, calling him the greatest president in the modern history of the United States. Cruz campaigns on respecting America's values & traditions and making sure the government doesn't touch guns. He also reiterated his support for overturning Roe vs Wade, while proposing tax cuts. Bannon campaigns on European conservatism, transforming America and keeping the country safe of immigrants. Amash campaigns on libertarian values and proposed a joint libertarian-republican ticket. While very liberal on social issues and critical of Trump, he has said America has traditions to be respected, and compromises have to be made. Candace Owens - currently a dark horse in the primary who's doing surprisingly well - claims the Trump mantle, and sees herself as a hardline conservative who doesn't bow for anything. She isn't afraid of a controversial statement, and likes to say things like they are. Pompeo campaigns as a establishment conservative, stating he has the experience needed to be in power, and is together with Pence the only one who was in the Trump administration, while proposing to expand the military budget to deal with foreign threats better.

The Democratic candidates

Warren campaigns on a platform that is similar to where the Democratic Party is nowadays, maybe a bit more to the left, but she has moderated her message since 2020 and is known as being the bridge between moderates and the left, who supported Bernie Sanders in 2020. Kamala Harris is no different than Warren and campaigns as a social liberal, supporting Medicare for All, the Green New Deal and other proposals and says she has the actual experience to implement them while in office. Yang campaigns on decency and on the universal basic income just like in 2020, but he has added new proposals to his platform, and runs to the left of the Democratic Party. Joe Kennedy III campaigns as a modern liberal, focusing on his message that he's capable of beating the Republicans while others are not, or a risk. This message is no different than that of former mayor Pete Buttigieg, while he states that he wants healthcare insurance to be optional. Newsom campaigns as a modern liberal who's experienced and knows how to get things done. Cuomo campaigns on how he can deal with crisis management, while promising a return to normalcy. On the far-left, both Pocan and Salazar try to claim the mantle of Bernie Sanders and both call them his successor. But as it looks now, it seems most of his support has evaporished or has either gone to Yang and Warren as Salazar and Pocan struggle with name recognition.

Those were the highlights of the campaigns of the "main candidates".

[The '90s' Last Champion]

A few questions: how exactly did Fairfax win the VA Democratic Primary over the likes of Jennifer Caroll Foy, Terry McAuliffe, or even Mark Herring? Also a bit confused as to how Sununu won in a Trump midterm. But other that, seems good so far!

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A few questions: how exactly did Fairfax win the VA Democratic Primary over the likes of Jennifer Caroll Foy, Terry McAuliffe, or even Mark Herring? Also a bit confused as to how Sununu won in a Trump midterm. But other that, seems good so far!

Isn't Terry McAuliffe term limited or not eligible? He was a former governor. Wikipedia only mentioned Herring and Fairfax as potential candidates, not the most reliable source, but i'm not very knowledgeable on Virginia politicians.

Sununu distanced himself from Trump and was very popular. Equivalent of Rick Scott 2018.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

A few questions: how exactly did Fairfax win the VA Democratic Primary over the likes of Jennifer Caroll Foy, Terry McAuliffe, or even Mark Herring? Also a bit confused as to how Sununu won in a Trump midterm. But other that, seems good so far!

Isn't Terry McAuliffe term limited or not eligible? He was a former governor. Wikipedia only mentioned Herring and Fairfax as potential candidates, not the most reliable source, but i'm not very knowledgeable on Virginia politicians.

Sununu distanced himself from Trump and was very popular. Equivalent of Rick Scott 2018.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Term_limits_in_the_United_States#Gubernatorial_term_limits, in Virginia governors are eligible to run again four years after being out of office. Also Caroll Foy and Herring are already in, and there are rumors that McAuliffe may jump in as well.

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In the news: 2023

Hawley and Owens triumph in debates, Haley fights back, Pence stumbles

Warren shines in Democratic debate

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorses Julia Salazar

Fiorina drops out, endorses Blackburn

Liz Cheney drops out, endorses Haley

Ojeda first Democrat to drop out, endorses Yang

2024 GOP Polling:
Nikki Haley 26,7%
Mike Pence 15,2%
Josh Hawley 11,7%
Marsha Blackburn 6,0%
Candace Owens 4,5%
Ted Cruz 4,2%
Mike Pompeo 3,0%
Ron DeSantis 2,8%
John James 2,6%
Tom Cotton 2,5%
Steve Bannon 2,5%
Justin Amash 2,2%
Larry Hogan 2,0%
John Thune 1,1%
Tim Scott 0,8%
Kellyanne Conway 0,4%
Elise Stefanik 0,1%
Jeff Van Drew 0,1%

2024 DEM polling
Elizabeth Warren 27,5%
Kamala Harris 24,2%
Andrew Yang 18,5%
Joe Kennedy III 12,3%
Gavin Newsom 8,6%
Pete Buttigieg 6,2%
Andrew Cuomo 5,4%
Gretchen Whitmer 2,8%
Cory Booker 2,4%
Julia Salazar 2,0%
Megan Rapinoe 1,8%
Julian Castro 1,5%
Tulsi Gabbard 1,2%
Beto O'Rourke 0,8%
Mark Pocan 0,7%
Jared Polis 0,6%
Russ Feingold 0,4%
Doug Jones 0,2%

GE polling
Warren vs Haley 48 - 42
Warren vs Pence 54 - 42
Warren vs Hawley 46 - 41
Harris vs Haley 46 - 46
Harris vs Pence 49 - 42
Harris vs Hawley 44 - 44
Yang vs Haley 44 - 46
Yang vs Pence 47 - 42
Yang vs Hawley 41 - 44

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More drop outs

Conway drops out, endorses Owens

Stefanik drops out, without endorsing anyone

Van Drew stops campaign

Pocan drops out to "combine progressive forces", endorsing Salazar

Squad members Tlaib, Omar, Cisneros endorse Salazar. Pressley endorses Warren

Polis drops out and endorses Newsom

Feingold drops out, endorsing front-runner Warren

Jones, Rapinoe and O'Rourke drop out, not endorsing anyone

2024 GOP Polling:
Nikki Haley 28,2%
Mike Pence 14,5%
Josh Hawley 12,8%
Marsha Blackburn 8,9%
Candace Owens 6,1%
Mike Pompeo 3,8%
Ron DeSantis 3,5%
Ted Cruz 3,3%
John James 3,0%
Tom Cotton 3,0%
Justin Amash 1,6%
Larry Hogan 1,5%
Steve Bannon 1,4%
John Thune 1,2%
Tim Scott 1,0%

2024 DEM polling
Elizabeth Warren 26,8%
Kamala Harris 22,1%
Andrew Yang 17,4%
Joe Kennedy III 14,1%
Gavin Newsom 9,5%
Pete Buttigieg 5,5%
Andrew Cuomo 4,0%
Julia Salazar 3,4%
Julian Castro 2,6%
Gretchen Whitmer 2,2%
Cory Booker 1,8%
Tulsi Gabbard 0,9%

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Poll analysis

In the Republican primary, Haley leads by a comfortable margin. She leads with moderates, people who aren't fond of Trump and liked the Bush administration more. She leads with the wealthy, latino's, afro-americans, middle-aged, women, suburban and urban voters. Pence leads with strongly religious, the elderly, rural voters, conservatives and non-college educated. Hawley leads with whites and men, and does well among younger demographics, and the poor. Hawley and Pence's leads with those groups are slim, while Haley's lead in her strongest demographic group is large. Blackburn's strongest group is conservatives and those who strongly approve of Trump. Owens is very popular among younger demographics, a spot she shares with Hawley. She does also well in the Northeast and among the small sample of Afro-Americans.

In the Democratic primary Warren leads with women, non college educated, the poor, very liberal voters and whites. Harris leads with Afro-Americans, college educated, liberal voters and the wealthy. Yang leads with men, the youth and latino's. Kennedy III does well in rural areas and among moderates, exactly where Buttigieg does well in among too. Newsom does well among people who want a more experienced person to return in the white house, although Harris leads that group. Salazar does well among those who supported Sanders in 2020, latino's, very liberal voters and the younger voters, and her support is very one sided.

2024 GOP Polling:
Nikki Haley 27,5%
Mike Pence 17,1%
Josh Hawley 14,1%
Marsha Blackburn 7,5%
Candace Owens 6,2%
Mike Pompeo 4,3%
Ron DeSantis 3,3%
Ted Cruz 2,8%
John James 2,5%
Tom Cotton 2,0%
Justin Amash 1,4%
Larry Hogan 1,4%
Steve Bannon 1,2%
Tim Scott 1,1%
John Thune 0,8%

2024 DEM polling
Elizabeth Warren 24,7%
Kamala Harris 21,5%
Andrew Yang 15,2%
Joe Kennedy III 12,8%
Gavin Newsom 12,1%
Julia Salazar 6,6%
Pete Buttigieg 6,4%
Julian Castro 4,1%
Andrew Cuomo 2,8%
Gretchen Whitmer 1,8%
Cory Booker 1,4%
Tulsi Gabbard 0,5%

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Early state polls

GOP

Iowa:
Mike Pence 22,2%
Nikki Haley 20,5%
Josh Hawley 17,4%
Mike Pompeo 14,6%
Marsha Blackburn 6,2%

New Hampshire:
Nikki Haley 24,6%
Josh Hawley 14,0%
Mike Pence 12,3%
Candace Owens 11,0%
Ron DeSantis 7,1%
Larry Hogan 6,5%
Mike Pompeo 5,6%
Marsha Blackburn 5,2%

South Carolina:
Nikki Haley 38,1%
Mike Pence 14,3%
Candace Owens 9,8%
Ted Cruz 8,2%
Tim Scott 7,6%
John James 5,2%
Ron DeSantis 5,2%
Mike Pompeo 4,8%
Marsha Blackburn 4,6%
Josh Hawley 4,2%

DEM

Iowa:
Elizabeth Warren 20,8%
Kamala Harris 17,2%
Joe Kennedy III 14,5%
Pete Buttigieg 14,1%
Andrew Yang 12,8%
Gavin Newsom 7,6%

New Hampshire:
Elizabeth Warren 30,1%
Joe Kennedy III 19,8%
Pete Buttigieg 14,6%
Andrew Yang 12,8%
Kamala Harris 12,4%

Nevada:
Andrew Yang 19,2%
Elizabeth Warren 18,9%
Kamala Harris 18,2%
Julia Salazar 14,4%
Gavin Newsom 12,5%
Julian Castro 8,9%
Joe Kennedy III 6,1%

South Carolina
Kamala Harris 35,2%
Elizabeth Warren 15,2%
Joe Kennedy III 12,9%
Andrew Yang 8,9%
Gavin Newsom 8,2%
Cory Booker 7,4%
Gretchen Whitmer 5,6%

California
Gavin Newsom 24,0%
Kamala Harris 22,8%
Andrew Yang 14,2%
Elizabeth Warren 11,7%
Joe Kennedy III 11,5%
Julia Salazar 9,9%

Betting odds:

GOP Primary winner:
Nikki Haley 3
Mike Pence 4
Josh Hawley 7.5
Marsha Blackburn 12
Candace Owens 16
Mike Pompeo 16
Ron DeSantis 25
Ted Cruz 25
John James 33
Tom Cotton 50
Justin Amash 100
Larry Hogan 100
Steve Bannon 100
Tim Scott 100
John Thune 100

DEM Primary winner:
Elizabeth Warren 5.5
Kamala Harris 6
Andrew Yang 6.5
Joe Kennedy III 7
Gavin Newsom 8
Julia Salazar 12
Pete Buttigieg 12
Julian Castro 15
Andrew Cuomo 15
Gretchen Whitmer 24
Cory Booker 24
Tulsi Gabbard 67

Next president:
Nikki Haley 6
Mike Pence 8
Elizabeth Warren 10
Kamala Harris 12
Andrew Yang 14
Joe Kennedy III 15
Josh Hawley 15
Gavin Newsom 16
Pete Buttigieg 24
Marsha Blackburn 25
Mike Pompeo 33
Julia Salazar 33
Andrew Cuomo 33
Candace Owens 40
Ron DeSantis 40
Julian Castro 50
Ted Cruz 50
John James 50

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Elections in Italy and Spain

Italy

Lega - 29,2%
M5S - 21,4%
PD - 20,1%
FdI - 19,2%
Forza Italia - 4,5%
LeU - 3,8%

Spain

PSOE - 28,4%
PP - 25,5%
Vox - 14,2%
Unidas Podemos - 11,8%
C's - 4,2%

[🥥🌴]

In the news

Owens and Haley clash, Owens calls Haley a fake conservative not loyal to Trump

"Candace Owens, a danger to the nation", according to Republican insiders

Mike Pence struggles with campaign finances, big donors back Haley instead

Tim Scott drops out, and joins Haley on campaign trail, endorsing her

Bannon drops out, endorsing Candace Owens calling her the future of the nation

Amash drops out, running for the Libertarian nomination instead

Cuomo drops out, endorses fellow governor Newsom

2024 GOP Polling
Nikki Haley 29,8%
Mike Pence 13,2%
Josh Hawley 12,8%
Candace Owens 8,9%
Marsha Blackburn 6,7%
Mike Pompeo 5,6%
Ron DeSantis 4,2%
Ted Cruz 3,1%
John James 2,7%
Tom Cotton 2,4%
Larry Hogan 2,2%
John Thune 1,2%

2024 DEM polling
Kamala Harris 20,2%
Elizabeth Warren 19,8%
Joe Kennedy III 15,4%
Andrew Yang 14,6%
Gavin Newsom 13,7%
Julia Salazar 9,2%
Pete Buttigieg 9,0%
Gretchen Whitmer 2,5%
Julian Castro 2,1%
Cory Booker 1,2%
Tulsi Gabbard 0,2%

[🥥🌴]

Iowa primaries

DEMS

Elizabeth Warren 19,7%
Pete Buttigieg 18,1%
Joe Kennedy III 17,6%
Kamala Harris 13,3%
Andrew Yang 11,9%
Gavin Newsom 8,4%
Julia Salazar 5,5%
Julian Castro 2,4%
Gretchen Whitmer 1,8%
Cory Booker 1,1%
Tulsi Gabbard 0,2%

GOP

Mike Pompeo 20,1%
Mike Pence 19,2%
Josh Hawley 18,4%
Nikki Haley 14,2%
Marsha Blackburn 7,1%
Candace Owens 6,4%
Ted Cruz 5,2%
Ron DeSantis 4,5%
John James 1,8%
Tom Cotton 1,2%
Larry Hogan 1,1%
John Thune 0,8%

[🥥🌴]

In the news

Cotton, James and Thune drop out after disappointing showing in Iowa

Gabbard drops out after embarassing showing

Booker, Whitmer and Castro drop out. Whitmer & Booker endorse Harris

Cruz and De Santis drop out

2024 GOP Polling
Nikki Haley 28,6%
Josh Hawley 17,8%
Mike Pence 15,2%
Mike Pompeo 11,2%
Candace Owens 8,9%
Marsha Blackburn 5,2%
Larry Hogan 2,4%

2024 DEM polling
Elizabeth Warren 20,7%
Kamala Harris 17,4%
Joe Kennedy III 16,8%
Pete Buttigieg 14,5%
Andrew Yang 12,2%
Gavin Newsom 11,6%
Julia Salazar 8,7%

[538Electoral]

Interesting timeline.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Btw Salazar would only be 34 before Inauguration Day so she’s not eligible   

[🥥🌴]

Btw Salazar would only be 34 before Inauguration Day so she’s not eligible   

You're right. But it's close and I won't change it. Pretend for this TL she's one year older. I can tell you this, she won't be elected as president anyway, even though in this primary she's together with Pocan (who dropped out before Iowa happened) and Yang my preferred choice.

I made another mistake. I was planning to include Bullock, and he announced, and we don't hear anything anymore. I simply forgot him. Oh well, pretend he didn't announce

[🥥🌴]

New Hampshire primaries

DEMS

Elizabeth Warren 25,2%
Joe Kennedy III 21,8%
Pete Buttigieg 21,2%
Kamala Harris 11,0%
Andrew Yang 9,7%
Gavin Newsom 6,4%
Julia Salazar 4,7%

GOP

Nikki Haley 26,8%
Mike Pompeo 18,0%
Josh Hawley 16,5%
Larry Hogan 12,4%
Mike Pence 12,2%
Candace Owens 9,0%
Marsha Blackburn 5,1%

[🥥🌴]

In the news

Warren keeps on winning, is she 'unstoppable'?

Harris not out yet. "The real spectacle has yet to start", she says

Salazar drops out, endorses Yang and says progressive left has to unite behind Yang

Bernie Sanders endorses Andrew Yang

Pence first major candidate to drop out

Blackburn ends campaign

2024 GOP Polling
Nikki Haley 41,1%
Josh Hawley 22,2%
Mike Pompeo 19,2%
Candace Owens 7,8%
Larry Hogan 4,2%

2024 DEM polling
Elizabeth Warren 25,5%
Kamala Harris 15,8%
Joe Kennedy III 18,2%
Pete Buttigieg 15,7%
Andrew Yang 12,8%
Gavin Newsom 9,8%

[🥥🌴]

Nevada primaries

DEMS

Andrew Yang 26,2%
Elizabeth Warren 24,5%
Kamala Harris 17,2%
Joe Kennedy III 12,4%
Pete Buttigieg 10,5%
Gavin Newsom 9,2%

GOP

Josh Hawley 28,6%
Nikki Haley 27,4%
Mike Pompeo 25,5%
Candace Owens 10,5%
Larry Hogan 8,0%

[2016]

Harris probably still has a shot because of Nevada, South Carolina and her Home State of California.

Warren is really a bad fit especially for NV and SC.