Four more years? - A political election timeline

[🥥🌴]

Election night 2020

Alabama:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 65,2%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 34,2%
Others 0,6%

Alaska:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 54,6%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 43,4%
Others 2,0%

Arizona:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 48,4%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 50,2%
Others 1,4%

Arkansas:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 66,1%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 33,3%
Others 0,6%

California:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 34,8%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 66,0%
Others 1,2%

[🥥🌴]

Colorado:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 43,2%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 55,2%
Others 1,6%

Connecticut
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 41,0%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 58,2%
Others 0,8%

Delaware
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 40,1%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 59,0%
Others 0,9%

District of Columbia
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 4,4%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 95,0%
Others 0,6%

Florida
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 50,1%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 49,6%
Others 0,4%

Georgia
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 49,9%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 49,8%
Others 0,3%

[🥥🌴]

Hawaii:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 31,8%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 67,0%
Others 1,2%

Idaho:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 70,1%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 28,2%
Others 1,7%

Illinois:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 40,4%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 58,2%
Others 1,4%

Indiana:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 60,1%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 38,7%
Others 1,2%

Iowa:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 57,4%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 41,8%
Others 0,8%

[🥥🌴]

Kansas:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 55,6%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 43,0%
Others 1,4%

Kentucky:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 69,8%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 29,0%
Others 1,2%

Louisiana:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 61,7%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 27,5%
Others 0,8%

Maine (at large) :
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 49,4%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 47,9%
Others 2,7%

Maryland:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 34,3%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 65,0%
Others 0,7%

[🥥🌴]

Massachussets:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 35,1%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 63,8%
Others 1,1%

Michigan:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 49,8%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 48,9%
Others 1,1%

Minnesota:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 49,7%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 48,1%
Others 2,2%

Mississippi:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 59,2%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 40,2%
Others 0,6%

Missouri:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 58,4%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 40,9%
Others 0,7%

[🥥🌴]

Montana:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 55,2%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 43,8%
Others 1,0%

Nebraska:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 60,8%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 38,2%
Others 1,0%

Nevada:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 47,4%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 52,8%
Others 0,8%

New Hampshire:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 49,1%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 50,2%
Others 0,7%

New Jersey:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 42,2%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 57,1%
Others 0,7%

[🥥🌴]

New Mexico:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 40,3%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 58,1%
Others 1,6%

New York:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 39,0%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 60,4%
Others 0,6%

North Carolina:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 51,1%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 48,4%
Others 0,5%

North Dakota:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 66,3%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 32,0%
Others 1,7%

Ohio:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 54,8%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 44,2%
Others 1,0%

[🥥🌴]

Oklahoma:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 74,0%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 25,2%
Others 0,8%

Oregon:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 43,2%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 56,1%
Others 0,7%

Pennsylvania:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 49,2%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 50,4%
Others 0,6%

Rhode Island:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 43,8%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 55,0%
Others 1,2%

South Carolina:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 57,6%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 42,0%
Others 0,4%

[🥥🌴]

South Dakota:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 68,4%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 30,2%
Others 1,4%

Tennessee:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 66,2%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 33,2%
Others 0,6%

Texas:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 52,4%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 46,4%
Others 1,2%

Utah:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 57,2%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 40,3%
Others 2,5%

Vermont:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 31,8%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 66,0%
Others 2,2%

[🥥🌴]

Virginia:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 45,4%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 54,1%
Others 0,5%

Washington:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 36,2%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 62,0%
Others 1,8%

West Virginia:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 70,1%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 28,8%
Others 1,1%

Wisconsin:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 51,8%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 46,9%
Others 1,3%

Wyoming:
Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 76,2%
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 21,6%
Others 2,2%

[🥥🌴]

Most Democratic to Most Republican:
D.C. - Biden +90.6
Vermont - Biden +34.2
California - Biden +31.2
Maryland - Biden +30.7
Massachussets - Biden +28.7
Washington - Biden +25.8
Hawaii - Biden +25.2
New York - Biden +21.4
Delaware - Biden +18.9
Illinois - Biden +17.8
New Mexico - Biden +17.8
Connecticut - Biden +17.2
New Jersey - Biden +14.9
Oregon - Biden +12.9
Colorado - Biden +12
Rhode Island - Biden +11.2
Virginia - Biden +8.7
Nevada - Biden +5.4
Arizona - Biden +1.8
Pennsylvania - Biden +1.2
New Hampshire - Biden +1.1
Georgia - Trump +0.1
Florida - Trump +0.5
Michigan - Trump +0.9
Maine - Trump +1.5
Minnesota - Trump +1.6
North Carolina - Trump +2.7
Wisconsin - Trump +4.9
Texas - Trump +6
Ohio - Trump +10.6
Alaska - Trump +11.2
Montana - Trump +11.4
Kansas - Trump +12.6
Iowa - Trump +15.6
South Carolina - Trump +15.6
Utah - Trump +16.9
Missouri - Trump +17.5
Mississippi - Trump +19
Indiana - Trump +21.4
Nebraska - Trump +22.6
North Dakota - Trump +24.3
Alabama - Trump +31
Arkansas - Trump +32.8
Tennessee - Trump +33
Louisiana - Trump +34.2
South Dakota - Trump +38.2
Kentucky - Trump +40.8
West Virginia - Trump +41.3
Idaho - Trump +41.9
Oklahoma - Trump +48.8
Wyoming - Trump +54.8

Donald J. Trump / Mike Pence - 48,0% - 287 EV's
Joe Biden / Kamala Harris - 51,0% - 251 EV's
Others 1,0%

[🥥🌴]

Senate

Alabama: (Republican gain)
Tommy Tuberville - 56,2%
Doug Jones - 43,6%

Alaska:
Dan Sullivan - 52,9%
Al Gross - 46,4%

Arizona: (Democratic gain)
Mark Kelly - 51,3%
Martha McSally - 47,4%

Arkansas:
Tom Cotton 88,2%

Colorado: (Democratic gain)
John Hickenlooper - 53,2%
Cory Gardner - 46,2%

Delaware:
Jess Scarane 59,0%
James DeMartino 40,0%

Georgia
David Perdue - 51,2%
Jon Ossoff - 48,5%

Georgia - special:
Doug Collins - 25,4%
Kelly Loeffler - 25,2%
Raphael Warnock - 24,6%
Matt Lieberman - 21,4%

Georgia - special - run-off:
Doug Collins - 50,2%
Kelly Loeffler - 49,8%

Idaho:
Jim Risch - 75,2%
Paulette Jordan - 22,8%

Illinois:
Dick Durbin - 59,2%
Mark Curran - 39,4%

Iowa:
Joni Ernst - 59,2%
Theresa Greenfield - 40,4%

Kansas:
Kris Kobach - 51,2%
Barbara Bollier - 48,2%

Kentucky:
Mitch McConnell - 54,2%
Amy McGrath - 44,5%

Louisiana:
Bill Cassidy - 58,3%

Maine:
Susan Collins - 51,2%
Sara Gideon - 48,4%

Massachusetts:
Joe Kennedy III - 61,6%
Shiva Ayyadurai - 35,5%

Michigan: (Republican gain)
John James - 50,1%
Gary Peters - 49,7%

Minnesota:
Tina Smith - 51,1%
Jason Lewis - 48,4%

Mississippi:
Cindy Hyde-Smith - 58,8%
Mike Espy - 41,1%

Montana: (Democratic gain)
Steve Bullock - 49,8%
Steve Daines - 49,6%

Nebraska:
Ben Sasse - 65,1%
Steve Janicek - 34,4%

New Hampshire:
Jeanne Shaheen - 52,4%
Dan Bolduc - 47,2%

New Jersey:
Cory Booker - 63,4%
Eugene Anagnos - 25,7%

New Mexico:
Ben Ray Lujan - 58,4%
Mark Roncetti - 40,4%

North Carolina: Democratic gain
Cal Cunningham - 50,4%
Thom Tillis - 49,3%

Oklahoma:
Jim Inhofe - 77,1%
Abby Broyles - 22,4%

Oregon:
Jeff Merkley - 57,4%
Paul Romero - 41,2%

Rhode Island:
Jack Reed - 61,1%
Allen Waters - 38,2%

South Carolina:
Tim Scott - 55,4%
Jaime Harrison - 44,2%

South Dakota:
Mike Rounds - 68,4%
Daniel Ahlers - 30,2%

Tennessee:
Bill Hagerty - 66,4%
James Mackler - 33,2%

Texas:
John Cornyn - 55,0%
MJ Hegar - 44,2%

Virginia:
Mark Warner - 54,2%
Daniel Gade - 45,1%

West-Virginia:
Shelley Moore Capito - 54,1%
Richard Ojeda - 45,1%

Wyoming:
Cynthia Lummey - 75,0%
Yana Ludwig - 22,4%

Democrats + independents: 49 (+2)
Republicans: 51 (-2)

GOP majority

[🥥🌴]

House

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1yc3

Democrats + independents: 222 (-13)
Republicans: 212 (+13)
Libertarians: 1 (+1)

DEM majority

[🥥🌴]

Gubernational elections:
All incumbents are re-elected
Greg Gianforte becomes the new governor of Montana
Jon Huntsman Jr. is elected governor of Utah

[🥥🌴]

In the news: 2021

Second wave of COVID-19 hits USA

Chuck Grassley not seeking re-election in 2022

Richard Shelby to step down as senator in 2022

Patrick Leahy states this is going to be his last term

Yang teases 2024 run

2024 GOP polling
Mike Pence 26,1%
Nikki Haley 22,1%
Donald Trump Jr. 8,6%
Ivanka Trump 7,1%
Ron DeSantis 4,5%
Josh Hawley 4,1%
Mike Pompeo 3,2%
Greg Abbott 3,0%
Rick Scott 1,6%
Tim Scott 1,0%

2024 DEM polling
Pete Buttigieg 20,5%
Kamala Harris 17,3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 15,2%
Andrew Yang 12,1%
Andrew Cuomo 10,3%
Joe Kennedy III 8,1%
Gavin Newsom 5,5%

[🥥🌴]

Dutch elections 2021
FvD - 24 seats
VVD - 22 seats
PVV - 20 seats
GL - 18 seats
PvdA - 17 seats
CDA - 14 seats
SP - 9 seats
D66 - 7 seats
CU - 7 seats
PvdD - 7 seats
PvdT - 4 seats
SGP - 3 seats
DENK - 3 seats
50+ - 1 seat
VNL - 1 seat
Pirate Party - 1 seat

New centrist government formed between VVD, PvdA, GL, CDA and D66 with Buma (CDA) as PM. Focus on economy and the environment.

[🥥🌴]

In the news: 2021

China to blame for COVID-19, Donald Trump says

COVID-19 vaccin delayed, no promising results

COVID-19 now caused more than 1 million victims worldwide

Yang announces run for New York governor

Musk teases 2024 run, says he's considering it

2024 GOP polling
Nikki Haley 26,2%
Mike Pence 21,4%
Donald Trump Jr. 10,5%
Ivanka Trump 9,4%
Elon Musk 6,2%
Josh Hawley 5,2%
Mike Pompeo 3,8%
Ron DeSantis 2,7%
Greg Abbott 1,5%
Rick Scott 1,0%
Tim Scott 0,6%

2024 DEM polling
Andrew Yang 18,5%
Pete Buttigieg 18,0%
Elizabeth Warren 17,5%
Kamala Harris 17,5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8,5%
Andrew Cuomo 7,5%
Elon Musk 4,5%
Joe Kennedy III 4,5%
Gavin Newsom 3,0%
Gretchen Whitmer 1,5%

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Musk isn't eligible because he wasn't a natural born citizen.

[🥥🌴]

In the news: 2021

Left-wing party New Peru win Peruvian elections in an upset

Moderate conservative wins presidential election in Iran

Trump threatens to go to war with Iran

Abe's party wins elections, gains for the left amid coronacrisis

Roy Moore announces run for 2022 senate seat

Yang comfortably elected as new mayor of New York

2024 GOP polling
Nikki Haley 25,2%
Mike Pence 24,5%
Ivanka Trump 11,6%
Donald Trump Jr. 8,4%
Mike Pompeo 7,2%
Josh Hawley 6,2%
Elon Musk 4,5%
Ron DeSantis 2,2%
Greg Abbott 2,0%
Tim Scott 1,5%
Rick Scott 1,1%

2024 DEM polling
Elizabeth Warren 19,1%
Kamala Harris 18,5%
Pete Buttigieg 15,1%
Andrew Yang 14,4%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10,2%
Andrew Cuomo 8,8%
Joe Kennedy III 5,7%
Gavin Newsom 3,4%
Elon Musk 2,5%
Howard Schultz 1,4%
Gretchen Whitmer 0,8%

[🥥🌴]

Musk isn't eligible because he wasn't a natural born citizen.

Didn't know that. Well than it was just a joke he made in my TL.

[🥥🌴]

German elections 2021
CDU-CSU - 27%
Grunen - 24,5%
AfD - 18,5%
Linke - 11%
SPD - 9%
FDP - 9%

CDU-Grunen coalition government

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Nice map.  The only thing eye raising is MN and ME-AL going blue and PA going red concurrently, and the enormous Iowa margins. Also odd to see James win alongside Bullock and Tillis lose.  Supporting Hawley until Yang jumps in (fingers crossed) since the GOP outcome looks a bit obvious.

[🥥🌴]

Nice map.  The only thing eye raising is MN and ME-AL going blue and PA going red concurrently, and the enormous Iowa margins. Also odd to see James win alongside Bullock and Tillis lose.  Supporting Hawley until Yang jumps in (fingers crossed) since the GOP outcome looks a bit obvious.

It will never be perfect. I'm trying to keep it realistic, but weird things sometimes happen. Who had thought 2016 would be like it turned out to be. I was close with thinking MI, PA and FL going red, but was surprised WI went red as well. (or in atlas colours blue).

In my TL James ran close to Trump's numbers, while Bullock overperformed Trump due to his popularity. You could say Cunningham winning is not realistic, since Trump won NC by 3. I think Cunningham will however overperform Biden in NC in november but not by that much. But whatever it's a timeline . As we go further in the future, things will get more unpredictable and a bit less realistic, but every TL that goes far into the future is unrealistic, even the current one. Imagine someone writing a timeline in 2012 where Trump became the next president, you know.

With Elon Musk, i'm not writing him off. I have some Arnold Schwarzenegger role for him in petto, but I thought both could run for president technically and I was wrong. I also thought Musk was American, but apparently not.

I'm currently not sure what i'm planning for my TL. I write / simulate events based on my mood and work further upon that. Trying to imagine what the best next move is for each person, like I want Meghan McCain to run in the 2022 elections in my TL for the senate seat in Arizona, but I don't think she would considering it's likely going to be a bad year, and assuming Kelly's popularity. I think she would wait until 2024, even though it's not a midterm year, and likely not a good Republican year as well in a fast trending D state. In 2026 there is no senate race in Arizona, meaning if the government stays unpopular, she's locked out of the senate until at least 2028. And that's a consideration i have to make for every candidate.

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A look into the 2022 midterm elections

Alabama

Doug Jones
Bradley Byrne

In a heavily contested Republican primary, Byrne won against Moore and Sessions. Jones won overwhelmingly his Democratic primary

Alaska:

Laura Ingraham
Al Gross

Incumbent Lisa Murkowski got defeated by Fox news host challenger Laura Ingraham in a close race. Al Gross ran for the Democrats in the primary and won, but will run as an independent in the general election.

Arizona:

Doug Ducey
Mark Kelly
Governor Doug Ducey ran in the Republican primary and won his primary against main challenger Joe Arpaio. Mark Kelly ran unopposed

Arkansas:

John Boozman
We won't see a senate race this year as the Democrats didn't file in to run and Boozman ran unopposed

California

Kamala Harris
Erin Cruz

Harris won handily her primary against several unknown challengers. Erin Cruz will be her opponent.

Colorado:

Michael Bennet
Patrick Neville

Bennet ran unopposed. Neville will be his opponent.

Connecticut:

Richard Blumenthal
Candace Owens

Blumenthal ran unopposed. Owens won her primary on a heavily pro-Trump platform.

Florida:

Marco Rubio
Wayne Messam

Rubio and Messam both won their primaries.

Georgia:

Doug Collins
Teresa Tomlison

Collins and Tomlison both won their primaries.

Hawaii:

Brian Schatz

We won't see a senate race this year as the Republicans didn't file in to run and Schatz ran unopposed

Idaho:

Mike Crapo

We won't see a senate race this year as the Democrats didn't file in to run and Crapo ran unopposed.

Illinois:

Tammy Duckworth
Peggy Hubbard

Duckworth ran unopposed. Hubbard won the Republican primary

Indiana:

Todd Young
Christina Hale

Young and Hale both won their primaries.

Iowa:

J.D. Scholten
Pat Grassley

J.D. Scholten and grandson of Chuck - Pat Grassley won their primaries in closely contested primaries. Steve King and Theresa Greenfield got defeated.

Kansas:

Mike Pompeo
Barry Grissom

Mike Pompeo defeated incumbent Jerry Moran in a close primary. Barry Grissom will be his opponent.

Kentucky:

Rand Paul

Rand Paul won his primary, and no Democrat filed in to run.

Louisiana:

John Neely Kennedy
Robert Johnson

John Bel Edwards declined to run, despite being urged to do so, stating that his priority is Louisiana's governorship. Robert Johnson won the Democratic primary. Kennedy won the Republican primary.

Maryland:

Chris Van Hollen

Chris Van Hollen ran unopposed, while no Republican filed in to run.

Missouri:

Roy Blunt
Claire McCaskill

Blunt ran unopposed, while former senator McCaskill won her primary easily.

Nevada:

Catherine Cortez Masto
Sharron Angle

Cortez Masto ran unopposed, while Angle won her primary.

New Hampshire:

Maggie Hassan
Chris Sununu

Governor Sununu won his primary. Hassan won her primary as well.

New York:

Chuck Schumer
Larry Kudlow

Chuck Schumer won a crowded primary with a majority of the vote. Larry Kudlow won the Republican primary

North Carolina:

Roy Cooper
Pat McCrory

Former governor Pat McCrory and governor Roy Cooper won their primaries.

North Dakota

John Hoeven

Hoeven ran unopposed. No Democrat filed in to run.

Ohio:

Rob Portman
Tim Ryan

Ryan won his primary, while Portman only had to deal with minor challengers.

Oklahoma:

James Lankford

Lankford ran unopposed. No Democrat filed in to run.

Oregon:

Ron Wyden
Jo Rae Perkins

Perkins and Wyden won their primaries.

Pennsylvania:

Pat Toomey
Joe Sestak

Toorney won his primary, while Sestak had to fight off a challenge from the left.

South Carolina:

Tim Scott
Jaime Harrison

Both ran unopposed in their primaries.

South Dakota:

John Thune

Thune ran unopposed. No Democrat filed in to run.

Utah:

Mike Lee
Jim Matheson

Both won easily their primaries

Vermont:

Donald H. Turner
Peter Welch

Welch won easily. Turner won a contested primary

Washington:

Pramila Jayapal
Chris Vance

Murray did not run. Vance and Jayapal won their primaries.

Wisconsin:

Mark Pocan
Ron Johnson

Both won their primaries

Cook ratings

[🥥🌴]

France round 1

Emmanuel Macron (LREM) - 20,41%
Marine Le Pen (RN) - 20,25%
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (LR) - 10,42%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF) - 9,48%
Yannick Jadot (EELV) - 9,01%
Benoit Hamon (g.s) - 8,63%
François Ruffin (LFI) - 7,52%
Thierry Paul Valette (GJ) - 7,14%
Fabien Roussel (PCF) - 2,51%
Olivier Besancenot (NPA) - 2,50%
Jean Lassalle (I) - 1,42%
Nathalie Arthaud (LO) - 0,71%

The PS did not field a candidate

France round 2

Emmanuel Macron (LREM) - 48,49%
Marine Le Pen (RN) - 52,51%