2016: Vice President Obama vs. Trump
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  2016: Vice President Obama vs. Trump
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Author Topic: 2016: Vice President Obama vs. Trump  (Read 983 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« on: May 18, 2020, 09:41:10 AM »

HRC wins the 2008 primary and picks Barack Obama as her running mate. They're reelected in 2012 over the Romney/Ryan ticket and in 2016, VP Obama beats Sanders for the nomination. He faces Trump in the general. HRC's presidency doesn't go much different than Obama's IRL. Joe Biden was appointed SoS in HRC's cabinet.

Discuss with maps. And who is Obama's VP?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2020, 10:05:00 AM »

Third Terms are notoriously difficult for the party in power to win.



Businessman Donald Trump/Indiana Governor Mike Pence 48% 274 EV
Vice President Barack Obama/Senator Tim Kaine 49% 264 EV
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2020, 10:07:08 AM »

Third Terms are notoriously difficult for the party in power to win.



Businessman Donald Trump/Indiana Governor Mike Pence 48% 274 EV
Vice President Barack Obama/Senator Tim Kaine 49% 264 EV

Even for a master campaigner as Obama? I doubt he would have lost the Rust Belt this badly, but GA still would have gone for Trump I believe.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2020, 10:12:09 AM »

Third Terms are notoriously difficult for the party in power to win.



Businessman Donald Trump/Indiana Governor Mike Pence 48% 274 EV
Vice President Barack Obama/Senator Tim Kaine 49% 264 EV

Even for a master campaigner as Obama? I doubt he would have lost the Rust Belt this badly, but GA still would have gone for Trump I believe.

Even for Obama. I'm actually being generous giving him Georgia and North Carolina since it's Trump he's running against and African American turnout would have gone through the roof with him atop the ballot in the South.

Obama would have actually done better running against an incumbent President Trump in 2024, in this scenario.
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Left Wing
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« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2020, 11:24:11 AM »

2012 map + Arizona and North Carolina for Obama
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2020, 02:12:33 PM »

Obama has a lot of charisma, no baggage and is a great campaigner. He would have beaten Trump, considering the latter just won by 77,000 votes against Hillary. Black and young turnout would have delivered him the election. Obama keeps the Rust Belt and wins Florida and North Carolina on top. Trump takes Iowa and Ohio by smaller margins and keeps Arizona, which I believe wasn't ready to flip in 2016 unless there is an absolute landslide. Georgia would have been close as well. There is a significantly smaller share of third party votes.



✓ Vice President Barack H. Obama (D-IL)/Senator Timothy M. Kaine (D-VA): 322 EV. (51.23%)
Entertainer Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Governor Michael R. Pence (R-IN): 216 EV. (46.17%)
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2020, 02:17:25 PM »

Assuming President Clinton had the approval numbers that Obama had in real life, it'd be a cakewalk for Obama, whose charisma & likability would probably carry him over the finish line anyway.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2020, 02:22:15 PM »

Assuming President Clinton had the approval numbers that Obama had in real life, it'd be a cakewalk for Obama, whose charisma & likability would probably carry him over the finish line anyway.

Yeah, though some of Obama's high approvals throughout 2016 may have reflected on voters dislike for both Clinton and Trump (and the comparison with Obama).
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NHI
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2020, 03:07:34 PM »

Obama would defeat Trump.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2020, 02:30:21 AM »

I'm not sure there's any reality in which this would even happen. Trump was a Clinton supporter in 2008, so if she won and there was no birther movement, I'm not sure he still would have even been a Republican. Much less a politically active one inclined to run for president as he was in our timeline. Wouldn't hurt that Obama never would have mocked him for not being president at the WHCD.

Also, if Hillary wins in 2008, the political landscape likely looks vastly different. She had a chance at winning states like Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia based on the polls at the time, as insane as that seems today. There was a steep drop-off in WWC Democratic registration following Obama's election, that may not have occurred had Hillary (their preferred candidate at the time) had won. Possibly there is no Tea Party and the backlash to her simply is not as pronounced as it was against Obama. Study after study has showed that backlash was heavily amplified for racial reasons that would not have been as big a factor with a white incumbent, probably not even with Obama as VP. Hillary also might have simply been better at supporting the party in downballot and off-year races, which was one of Obama's weaknesses.

If that's all the case, and Obama still ends up facing Trump in 2016 somehow, I think he easily wins. I don't see any scenario in which Trump beats Obama head-to-head. If the economy is recovering under two-term incumbent President Hillary Clinton as it was under Obama, and Trump is as much of an unpopular jackass as he was in reality, VP Obama easily wins.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2020, 09:55:49 PM »

I'm not sure there's any reality in which this would even happen. Trump was a Clinton supporter in 2008, so if she won and there was no birther movement, I'm not sure he still would have even been a Republican. Much less a politically active one inclined to run for president as he was in our timeline. Wouldn't hurt that Obama never would have mocked him for not being president at the WHCD.

Also, if Hillary wins in 2008, the political landscape likely looks vastly different. She had a chance at winning states like Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia based on the polls at the time, as insane as that seems today. There was a steep drop-off in WWC Democratic registration following Obama's election, that may not have occurred had Hillary (their preferred candidate at the time) had won. Possibly there is no Tea Party and the backlash to her simply is not as pronounced as it was against Obama. Study after study has showed that backlash was heavily amplified for racial reasons that would not have been as big a factor with a white incumbent, probably not even with Obama as VP. Hillary also might have simply been better at supporting the party in downballot and off-year races, which was one of Obama's weaknesses.

If that's all the case, and Obama still ends up facing Trump in 2016 somehow, I think he easily wins. I don't see any scenario in which Trump beats Obama head-to-head. If the economy is recovering under two-term incumbent President Hillary Clinton as it was under Obama, and Trump is as much of an unpopular jackass as he was in reality, VP Obama easily wins.

I think we'd be still be dealing with some form of the Tea Party because of latent sexism instead of latent racism. It might have been even stronger outside of the south.
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