What if Clayton Williams won in 1990?

[Chester County Anti-populist]

This would have almost certainly stopped Bush from winning in '94. Maybe he would win in '98, but then he wouldn't have run for president in 2000.

[Left Wing]

Bush might run against Krueger in 1993 instead of running for governor. In that case, not much is different. If Bush was committed to becoming governor and ran in 1998 then some other Republicans would have jumped into the 2000 presidential race. I would guess Kemp, Ashcroft and Thompson. With the changed dynamics of the 2000 Republican primary I think Ashcroft becomes the nominee for president and loses the 2000 presidential election. From there you can go with the typical "Gore stops 9/11, global warming and brings world peace" timeline.