Would Democrats really lose Tammy Baldwin's seat if she was vice president?

[President Johnson]

If Joe Biden picks Tammy Baldwin as his running mate and they get elected in November, would Republicans really be favored to win the seat in a special election? Tony Evers could pick a strong successor such as Rep. Mark Pocan rather than a placeholder. Who would Republicans run in such a scenario?

It seems Baldwin's senate seat is a deal breaker for a potential vice presidential nomination, although she's from one of the most important states to decide the 2020 election. Furthermore, Baldwin is liked by progressives and moderates.

[SnowLabrador]

Wisconsin is moving rightward, and would be very likely to flip if there is a special election in 2022. Ron Johnson (or whoever runs to replace him) would help boost Republican turnout.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Warren will ensure a Dem victory in a special due to Kennedy and Pressley,  I know Biden supporters dont want Kennedy in the Senate, but he will be. Either beating Markey or a special.  Jill Biden gets along with Warren

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

It would totally depend on the national environment and the candidates. It’s not a guaranteed loss (like OH would be if Brown were VP), but it would be risky.

[Orser67]

I wouldn't mind picking Baldwin quite so much if it just triggered a new election concurrent to the 2022 mid-terms. But WI doesn't provide for gubernatorial appointments to the Senate; the seat would be vacant until a special election was held, presumably in mid-2021 (someone correct me if I'm wrong on the mid-2021 part). So even if Democrats did win the special election, they'd be down a potentially critical Senate seat at the start of Biden's presidency.

Also, even if WI were a blue state, creating a Senate vacancy would still be risky. Democrats lost MA and IL in 2010, and Republicans lost AL in 2017. When your party controls the presidency, you want to avoid special elections as much as possible.

[ShadowRocket]

I wouldn't mind picking Baldwin quite so much if it just triggered a new election concurrent to the 2022 mid-terms. But WI doesn't provide for gubernatorial appointments to the Senate; the seat would be vacant until a special election was held, presumably in mid-2021 (someone correct me if I'm wrong on the mid-2021 part). So even if Democrats did win the special election, they'd be down a potentially critical Senate seat at the start of Biden's presidency.

Pretty much this. I actually think that Baldwin would be the ideal running mate Biden if it weren't for the high probability of losing her seat in a special election.

[Flyersfan232]

Yes

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Yes(sane)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If Joe Biden picks Tammy Baldwin as his running mate and they get elected in November, would Republicans really be favored to win the seat in a special election? Tony Evers could pick a strong successor such as Rep. Mark Pocan rather than a placeholder. Who would Republicans run in such a scenario?

It seems Baldwin's senate seat is a deal breaker for a potential vice presidential nomination, although she's from one of the most important states to decide the 2020 election. Furthermore, Baldwin is liked by progressives and moderates.

> Mark Pocan

> Strong

The dude is a literal socialist representing the most left wing district in what is a Trump state. He’s rabidly insane. He’s a good statewide candidate in WI in the same way Cory Stewart was in Virginia.

[Roll Roons]

If Joe Biden picks Tammy Baldwin as his running mate and they get elected in November, would Republicans really be favored to win the seat in a special election? Tony Evers could pick a strong successor such as Rep. Mark Pocan rather than a placeholder. Who would Republicans run in such a scenario?

It seems Baldwin's senate seat is a deal breaker for a potential vice presidential nomination, although she's from one of the most important states to decide the 2020 election. Furthermore, Baldwin is liked by progressives and moderates.

> Mark Pocan

> Strong

The dude is a literal socialist representing the most left wing district in what is a Trump state. He’s rabidly insane. He’s a good statewide candidate in WI in the same way Cory Stewart was in Virginia.

I think he'd also likely lose to Mike Gallagher or Bryan Steil, but Wisconsin is weird, and I wouldn't count Pocan out. A significant number of people split their ticket in 2018 for between a very liberal senator and a very conservative governor.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If Joe Biden picks Tammy Baldwin as his running mate and they get elected in November, would Republicans really be favored to win the seat in a special election? Tony Evers could pick a strong successor such as Rep. Mark Pocan rather than a placeholder. Who would Republicans run in such a scenario?

It seems Baldwin's senate seat is a deal breaker for a potential vice presidential nomination, although she's from one of the most important states to decide the 2020 election. Furthermore, Baldwin is liked by progressives and moderates.

> Mark Pocan

> Strong

The dude is a literal socialist representing the most left wing district in what is a Trump state. He’s rabidly insane. He’s a good statewide candidate in WI in the same way Cory Stewart was in Virginia.

Your daily reminder that ultramoderate Tammy Baldwin outran socialist-adjacent Tony Evers by close to 10 points.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If Joe Biden picks Tammy Baldwin as his running mate and they get elected in November, would Republicans really be favored to win the seat in a special election? Tony Evers could pick a strong successor such as Rep. Mark Pocan rather than a placeholder. Who would Republicans run in such a scenario?

It seems Baldwin's senate seat is a deal breaker for a potential vice presidential nomination, although she's from one of the most important states to decide the 2020 election. Furthermore, Baldwin is liked by progressives and moderates.

> Mark Pocan

> Strong

The dude is a literal socialist representing the most left wing district in what is a Trump state. He’s rabidly insane. He’s a good statewide candidate in WI in the same way Cory Stewart was in Virginia.

I think he'd also likely lose to Mike Gallagher or Bryan Steil, but Wisconsin is weird, and I wouldn't count Pocan out. A significant number of people split their ticket in 2018 for between a very liberal senator and a very conservative governor.

Thing is, Tammy Baldwin doesn't feel "liberal" -- she is a nice, affable, and comes across pretty well. A radical self defined socialist, who also comes across as creepy as hell, from Madison, is an entirely different breed of candidate.

[Gracile]

If Joe Biden picks Tammy Baldwin as his running mate and they get elected in November, would Republicans really be favored to win the seat in a special election? Tony Evers could pick a strong successor such as Rep. Mark Pocan rather than a placeholder. Who would Republicans run in such a scenario?

It seems Baldwin's senate seat is a deal breaker for a potential vice presidential nomination, although she's from one of the most important states to decide the 2020 election. Furthermore, Baldwin is liked by progressives and moderates.

> Mark Pocan

> Strong

The dude is a literal socialist representing the most left wing district in what is a Trump state. He’s rabidly insane. He’s a good statewide candidate in WI in the same way Cory Stewart was in Virginia.

I think he'd also likely lose to Mike Gallagher or Bryan Steil, but Wisconsin is weird, and I wouldn't count Pocan out. A significant number of people split their ticket in 2018 for between a very liberal senator and a very conservative governor.

Thing is, Tammy Baldwin doesn't feel "liberal" -- she is a nice, affable, and comes across pretty well. A radical self defined socialist, who also comes across as creepy as hell, from Madison, is an entirely different breed of candidate.

I must have missed something, but when has Pocan specifically defined himself as a socialist? If you're talking about his Sanders endorsement, then that's hardly indicative of Pocan personally identifying as a socialist.

I don't think he would win in a hypothetical 2022 special election (mostly because Wisconsin, on the whole, would shift heavily toward Republicans under a Biden midterm - not unlike 2010 or 2014), however, your characterization is a bit unfair. Pocan is much in the same mold as Tammy Baldwin - who is also from liberal Madison and has taken left-wing positions on issues like single-payer health care long before it was part of the Democratic Party mainstream. Also, using the excuse that someone is "creepy as hell" as a justification for their lack of electability is incredibly subjective and comes off as juvenile on your part.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

If Joe Biden picks Tammy Baldwin as his running mate and they get elected in November, would Republicans really be favored to win the seat in a special election? Tony Evers could pick a strong successor such as Rep. Mark Pocan rather than a placeholder. Who would Republicans run in such a scenario?

It seems Baldwin's senate seat is a deal breaker for a potential vice presidential nomination, although she's from one of the most important states to decide the 2020 election. Furthermore, Baldwin is liked by progressives and moderates.

> Mark Pocan

> Strong

The dude is a literal socialist representing the most left wing district in what is a Trump state. He’s rabidly insane. He’s a good statewide candidate in WI in the same way Cory Stewart was in Virginia.

I think he'd also likely lose to Mike Gallagher or Bryan Steil, but Wisconsin is weird, and I wouldn't count Pocan out. A significant number of people split their ticket in 2018 for between a very liberal senator and a very conservative governor.

Thing is, Tammy Baldwin doesn't feel "liberal" -- she is a nice, affable, and comes across pretty well. A radical self defined socialist, who also comes across as creepy as hell, from Madison, is an entirely different breed of candidate.

Pocan literally has been Baldwin’s successor the past two offices she held (house and state assembly)They’re both from Madison. Pocan doesn’t come across as creepy to me either.

Baldwin has also been pretty progressive. A little to the left of the party’s center.

I do think he’d lose the special but not for those reasons you mentioned.

[PAK Man]

It wouldn't necessarily be a flip. But it would depend on the candidate/national environment. Wisconsin is such a weird state. It hadn't voted Republican at the presidential level in nearly 30 years, flips to Trump, everyone in the state hates Walker, yet Evers just barely defeats him, while at the same time Baldwin easily defeated Vukmir. That suggests to me that there were Baldwin/Walker voters. That...just doesn't make any sense to me. How can you vote for one of the most liberal U.S. senators while also voting for one of the most conservative governors?

[Mister Mets]

It's not a guaranteed loss, but it is a serious potential problem that there would be an election in November 2021 for the seat.

Wisconsin is a swing state willing to vote for Republicans for statewide office.

The party out of the White House tends to do better in special elections, and Republicans tend to do better in low-turnout special elections.