Non-whites are trending republican. Why is this happening?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture.  

What.

Many defining features of African-American culture- AAVE speech patterns, names, soul food, overall religiosity and adherence to certain denominations of Protestant Christianity- reflect the community’s origins in the southern US. This isn’t rocket science.

[Former President tack50]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't Hispanics be able to assimilate?

We know Hispanics are not a race but lose term for the ethnicity of those who identify and appear as mixed-race between Indigenous Americans and Europeans. Now if you are asking if Hispanics will be able to assimilate into the definition of "White" in America as Italians and Poles did then it will be very hard for that happens.

Even in Latin American countries where the overwhelming majority of the population are of Spanish descent still see social and economic divide among those considered "White" and the more mixed-race population. All signs point to that dynamic continuing in America especially since the definition of Whiteness in America and White Americans ancestry more often than not being associated with Northern Europe. (ie: British, French, Nordic, and the greater German area)

Nobody is saying that Hispanics can't be assimilated into American society and there is a strong case to be made that they already have. I'm just pointing out that all signs show the ethnicity known as Hispanics will establish themselves as an influential and independent minority in America in a similar fashion to that of Black Americans and not as an extension of the White Majority that many see Italians and Poles are today.   

I mean, by this I didn't mean that all hispanics would be seen as white. However a very significant portion will (and even already identifies as white I think). Why wouldn't people like Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz not be seen as people as white as the average white American?

[SevenEleven]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture.  

What.

Many defining features of African-American culture- AAVE speech patterns, names, soul food, overall religiosity and adherence to certain denominations of Protestant Christianity- reflect the community’s origins in the southern US. This isn’t rocket science.

In the Southern US, maybe. From Southern Anglos, abso-ing-lutely not. And pretty much any other aspect of aggregate AA culture that you left out have little or nothing to do with Southern Anglos culture.

It's not rocket science that your comment was a tone-deaf hot take.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture.  

What.

Many defining features of African-American culture- AAVE speech patterns, names, soul food, overall religiosity and adherence to certain denominations of Protestant Christianity- reflect the community’s origins in the southern US. This isn’t rocket science.

In the Southern US, maybe. From Southern Anglos, abso-ing-lutely not. And pretty much any other aspect of aggregate AA culture that you left out have little or nothing to do with Southern Anglos culture.

It's not rocket science that your comment was a tone-deaf hot take.

I didn't mean "from southern whites"....... but that's my bad for using that wording. What I probably should've said was that "black" culture is both Anglo and derived from the Southern US.

Nobody is saying that Hispanics can't be assimilated into American society and there is a strong case to be made that they already have. I'm just pointing out that all signs show the ethnicity known as Hispanics will establish themselves as an influential and independent minority in America in a similar fashion to that of Black Americans and not as an extension of the White Majority that many see Italians and Poles are today.  

I mean, by this I didn't mean that all hispanics would be seen as white. However a very significant portion will (and even already identifies as white I think). Why wouldn't people like Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz not be seen as people as white as the average white American?

Ted Cruz is half Non-Hispanic White on his mom's side, married to an Anglo white woman, and adheres to a distinctly "Anglo" denomination of Protestant Christianity. Marco Rubio is none of those things.

[SevenEleven]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture.  

What.

Many defining features of African-American culture- AAVE speech patterns, names, soul food, overall religiosity and adherence to certain denominations of Protestant Christianity- reflect the community’s origins in the southern US. This isn’t rocket science.

In the Southern US, maybe. From Southern Anglos, abso-ing-lutely not. And pretty much any other aspect of aggregate AA culture that you left out have little or nothing to do with Southern Anglos culture.

It's not rocket science that your comment was a tone-deaf hot take.

I didn't mean "from southern whites"....... but that's my bad for using that wording. What I probably should've said was that "black" culture is both Anglo and derived from the Southern US.

Black culture is not Anglo and more of "Southern" culture has roots in African American culture than the other way around. I'll give you religious point, though black churches and white evangelical churches are very dissimilar. The speech patterns, names, cuisine, music and pretty much anything else is uniquely African/African American and any overlap with "Southern Anglos" is derivative of that.

[Horus]

An often forgotten stat is that a higher percentage of black Americans are of Carribean/African origin than say 10-15 years ago, which is probably why the black vote is moving very slowly but surely right. These groups are usually more socially conservative and tend to be more open to voting Republican though I'm sure they still vote Dem at least 75-25.

[King of Kensington]

Second generation West Indians assimilate into the AA community. 

[Person Man]

I hope its just because more non-white employees are becoming investors and business owners but they are still where they have been more or less.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'd be cautious about comparing the non-white vote from 2016 with 2012 and 08, because those were the Obama elections. Based on exit polls, black voters in 08 and 12 comprised 13% of the electorate, while in '16 they were 12%, despite the fact that the black population has actually grown. Black Republicans continue to exist, as they did during the Obama years. But Obama was uniquely able to turn out apolitical black people in a way that Hillary was not, and I suspect Biden will not be. By turning out tons of normally apolitical black voters, Obama was able to win with a 95-4 margin. Then when he was off the ticket in 2016, a lot of those apolitical voters went back to not voting, and the vote swung towards Trump by default.

Asians and Hispanics trended R in 2016 compared to 2012, true. But even then, the Asian/Hispanic vote was still more lopsidedly Democratic compared to 2008. Again, there could be an Obama factor here. But really, when you compare more long-term trends, I think the small swing towards the GOP in 2016 was a minor blip rather than a start of a new trend. Asians used to vote more reliably GOP than whites in the 90s, and now they're solidly democratic, with a 65-29 margin considered relatively close. Hispanics have always been a D-voting group, Trump was more competitive than Romney, but miles away from actually carrying the vote.

As for polls, honestly, we are too far out for ethnicity-specific polls to mean anything. If all three groups trend GOP in 2020, then perhaps we're seeing a trend. But as of right now, I'm very skeptical.

[Del Tachi]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture. 

What.

Many defining features of African-American culture- AAVE speech patterns, names, soul food, overall religiosity and adherence to certain denominations of Protestant Christianity- reflect the community’s origins in the southern US. This isn’t rocket science.

In the Southern US, maybe. From Southern Anglos, abso-ing-lutely not. And pretty much any other aspect of aggregate AA culture that you left out have little or nothing to do with Southern Anglos culture.

It's not rocket science that your comment was a tone-deaf hot take.

I didn't mean "from southern whites"....... but that's my bad for using that wording. What I probably should've said was that "black" culture is both Anglo and derived from the Southern US.

Black culture is not Anglo and more of "Southern" culture has roots in African American culture than the other way around. I'll give you religious point, though black churches and white evangelical churches are very dissimilar. The speech patterns, names, cuisine, music and pretty much anything else is uniquely African/African American and any overlap with "Southern Anglos" is derivative of that.

African American culture is Southern, because the overwhelmingly vast majority of Black people in the U.S. are less than 2-3 generations removed from living in the Deep South, and the South has been influenced by Anglo colonizers and immigrants to a greater extent than other regions of the country (mostly because the South never got the big, later waves of Irish/Italian/German immigration that defined much of the Northeast and Midwest).  In that sense, African American culture is Anglo-derived in the same sense that Black Bahamian or Black Jamaican culture is Anglo-derived.

Moreover, I would categorically reject your premise that White and Black cultural identities in the South developed quasi-independently of one another (or the even more laughable idea that one is "more derivative" than the other).  The social structures, traditions and mannerisms of Southern people (both Black and White) are tied the group's development in a unique socio-physical setting rather than some sort of permanent, unequal cross-cultural exchange.  White (Black) Southern culture has not arose because it was simply borrowed from the other, but a unifying biracial Southern cultural identity exists born out of the idiosyncrasies of the place itself.

[SevenEleven]

Moreover, I would categorically reject your premise that White and Black cultural identities in the South developed quasi-independently of one another (or the even more laughable idea that one is "more derivative" than the other).  The social structures, traditions and mannerisms of Southern people (both Black and White) are tied the group's development in a unique socio-physical setting rather than some sort of permanent, unequal cross-cultural exchange.  White (Black) Southern culture has not arose because it was simply borrowed from the other, but a unifying biracial Southern cultural identity exists born out of the idiosyncrasies of the place itself.

You're so right! I never considered all those black NASCAR fans and country music concertgoers. And certainly, blacks brought on ships didn't even have a culture. Stupid me. I forgot about all the white people singing slave songs.

Tex-Mex is also a Mexican adaptation of white cuisine, too, right?

[Del Tachi]

Moreover, I would categorically reject your premise that White and Black cultural identities in the South developed quasi-independently of one another (or the even more laughable idea that one is "more derivative" than the other).  The social structures, traditions and mannerisms of Southern people (both Black and White) are tied the group's development in a unique socio-physical setting rather than some sort of permanent, unequal cross-cultural exchange.  White (Black) Southern culture has not arose because it was simply borrowed from the other, but a unifying biracial Southern cultural identity exists born out of the idiosyncrasies of the place itself.

You're so right! I never considered all those black NASCAR fans and country music concertgoers. And certainly, blacks brought on ships didn't even have a culture. Stupid me. I forgot about all the white people singing slave songs.

Tex-Mex is also a Mexican adaptation of white cuisine, too, right?

White people and Black slaves largely arrived in the American South contemporaneously and the development of their common culture has been ongoing since then, yes.  A history of exploitation or conflict does not negate a common cultural experience; the Indian caste system is predicated on inequality between different ethnic groups, but it is still fundamentally Indian cultural artifact.  Likewise, there is a unifying Southern cultural experience that Black and White Southerners have and do participate in equally.   

There's nothing identifiably Southern about NASACAR or country music as it exists today.  These things are branded, consumer products.  They're consumed by a diverse international audience, and any association of these items with a particular American folk ethic is simply a marketing ploy.         

[SevenEleven]

Take an anthropology class or go outside and talk to your neighbors. Even better, try both!

Enjoy!

[Non Swing Voter]

Well here's the thing... Republicans need to do A LOT better among minority voters, not just incrementally.  Also I am not surprised by this.  Why is this happening?

If African Americans are voting 90-10 for Democrats.

Asians are voting 70-30.

Hispanics are voting 65-35.

And if most of the minority growth is among hispanics and asians, then it will dilute the percent voting Democrat versus Republican even though Democrats are netting more votes in the equation. 

The problem for Republicans is that every Presidential election the minority vote share ticks up 1 or 2%.  So Democrats don't need to maintain the same margin among minority voters if they become a significantly greater share of the electorate.  There's really no way to spin this as a good thing for Republicans.  They have a unified coalition of whites without college degrees and evangelicals.  Both groups are shrinking as a percentage of the electorate.  Whereas every group that's increasing is diametrically opposed to the GOP coalition.  Want to see America's future?  Virginia is exhibit A.

[SInNYC]

Maybe there's a better source of data available, but according to the exit polls on Wikipedia (which are sourced to Edison Research):

Asian voters:
2000: D+14
2004: D+12
2008: D+27
2012: D+47
2016: D+36

While everybody shifted in 2008 for obvious reasons, the Asian shift in 2012 is stunning. I dont see Romney as particularly anti-Asian compared to other Rs either. So, are there any theories on why Asians shifted so much? Was it the appointment of many Asians to Obama's administration? Or is it just too small a sample to draw meaningful conclusions?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Maybe there's a better source of data available, but according to the exit polls on Wikipedia (which are sourced to Edison Research):

Asian voters:
2000: D+14
2004: D+12
2008: D+27
2012: D+47
2016: D+36

While everybody shifted in 2008 for obvious reasons, the Asian shift in 2012 is stunning. I dont see Romney as particularly anti-Asian compared to other Rs either. So, are there any theories on why Asians shifted so much? Was it the appointment of many Asians to Obama's administration? Or is it just too small a sample to draw meaningful conclusions?

1) Obama was a good fit for Asian voters. His life story of growing up with multiple cultures resonated with many of our experiences (both immigrant and native-born).

2) The birther controversy reflected the Republican Party's broader shift towards White Christian identity politics and nativism during Obama's tenure, which alienated many AAPIs and Muslims.

[Orser67]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture. 

What.

Many defining features of African-American culture- AAVE speech patterns, names, soul food, overall religiosity and adherence to certain denominations of Protestant Christianity- reflect the community’s origins in the southern US. This isn’t rocket science.

In the Southern US, maybe. From Southern Anglos, abso-ing-lutely not. And pretty much any other aspect of aggregate AA culture that you left out have little or nothing to do with Southern Anglos culture.

It's not rocket science that your comment was a tone-deaf hot take.

I didn't mean "from southern whites"....... but that's my bad for using that wording. What I probably should've said was that "black" culture is both Anglo and derived from the Southern US.

Black culture is not Anglo and more of "Southern" culture has roots in African American culture than the other way around. I'll give you religious point, though black churches and white evangelical churches are very dissimilar. The speech patterns, names, cuisine, music and pretty much anything else is uniquely African/African American and any overlap with "Southern Anglos" is derivative of that.

African American culture is Southern, because the overwhelmingly vast majority of Black people in the U.S. are less than 2-3 generations removed from living in the Deep South

I would 100% agree with this statement if it was applied to the South as a whole, but I'm not sure that it applies specifically to the Deep South. Maybe I'm wrong, but I would think that a decent number of African Americans are descended from people who lived in DE, MD, VA, NC, TN, KY, FL, TX, OK, and MO.

[pbrower2a]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

Hispanics can assimilate... non-Hispanics into their community. It works both ways.

[pbrower2a]

With blacks...

1.  "Black" increasingly includes "biracial" people whom whites may not accept as white. But they may think much the same as white people because the cultural influence of a white parent is stronger than that of a black parent. This may have a political effect.

2. Middle-class blacks used to be more heavily professionals in government service or have businesses that rely heavily upon people getting government assistance. That a black person be a grocer (usually  a conservative-leaning occupation) might not matter so much as that many of the customers are getting and using federal food aid. Likewise an African-American physician might have a clientele that relies heavily upon Medicaid. If one relies heavily upon the government as a payee, one might not be so concerned with taxes as on personal revenues.  Such is still so, but more blacks are getting ahead in businesses that don't have such an obvious connection to the government as a payor. 

This is slow, but any Republican President or other politician who baits black people can expect political difficulties, to put it tamely.   

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

52% of Hispanics already define as white on the census. Furthermore, Hispanics also have a very high rate of interrmarriage -- in CA, I went to a 70% Hispanic school by the numbers, but tons of the kids there looked straight up Italian more than anything else as a result of intermarriage, though you could definitely see the difference between the whiter Hispanics and the browner ones.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

- what we think of as “black” culture is basically Southern US Anglo culture.  

What.

This is actually true in some aspects, things like fried chicken which are racistly associated with blacks are just southern things that northerners first saw when it came up north with blacks during the great migration.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Friendly reminders that:

A: Hispanic is not a race
B: Many (most?) hispanics are white

Why wouldn't hispanics be able to assimilate?

Hispanics can assimilate... non-Hispanics into their community. It works both ways.

Not really, generally most assimiliation goes towards the majority, not towards the minority.

[Pulaski]

Likewise, there is a unifying Southern cultural experience that Black and White Southerners have and do participate in equally.        

Surely if your point were true, we wouldn't see such drastic and continuous discrepancies in voting patterns between southern whites and southern AAs. When southern whites were staunchly Democratic, AAs leaned Republican; now the reverse is true (though suburban southern whites are now trending D). Political leanings are often reflections of cultural and economic realities in a community. Why the discrepancy, if not a drastic cultural divide?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Can you guys let go of this unsubstantiated notion that Latino voters somehow care more about immigration than white voters?

Immigration "reform" is a laughably misguided attempt to reach Latinos. "Build the wall" and "put those kids in cages" is a great way to appeal to white nationalists.

Despite Trump's rhetoric on immigration, it does seem like Republicans are trying to do better with Hispanics, as we saw in CA-25.

In the same way that John James is an attempt to do better with black voters, and Susan Collins is an attempt to do better with women voters, sure. In other words, useless.

"Enforce existing laws" is a good way to appeal to law abiding citizens.

Latino voters DO care more about immigration than white voters.

On the one side, Latino voters are more likely to have relatives that are immigrants, or who wish to come to America and have to deal with the immigration system for some issue.  On the other side, Latino neighborhoods bear a greater share of the problems of Transnational Gangs (such as MS-13) that are from Mexico and Central America, but who do "business" in the US.

[Del Tachi]

Likewise, there is a unifying Southern cultural experience that Black and White Southerners have and do participate in equally.       

Surely if your point were true, we wouldn't see such drastic and continuous discrepancies in voting patterns between southern whites and southern AAs. When southern whites were staunchly Democratic, AAs leaned Republican; now the reverse is true (though suburban southern whites are now trending D). Political leanings are often reflections of cultural and economic realities in a community. Why the discrepancy, if not a drastic cultural divide?

Political party membership is a pretty poor gauge of cultural association (at least in the U.S.); what is a "cultural Republican" or "cultural Democrat"?  Black Democrats in the South are nothing like Democrats in other parts of the country, as evidenced by their relatively conservative views on things like gay marriage and abortion.

Racial polarization is a tactical outcome rather than a cultural one.  When a majority racial group polarizes, they preempt the minority group from ever forming a constituent part of an electoral majority.